Commodity price volatility and world market integration since 1700
TLDR
This paper explored price volatility since 1700 to offer three stylized facts: commodity price volatility has not increased over time, commodities have always shown greater price volatility than manufactures, and world market integration breeds less commodity prices.Abstract:
Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and this volatility impedes their growth. Furthermore, commodity prices are a key source of that volatility. This paper explores price volatility since 1700 to offer three stylized facts: commodity price volatility has not increased over time, commodities have always shown greater price volatility than manufactures, and world market integration breeds less commodity price volatility. Thus, economic isolation is associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration is associated with less.read more
Figures
Table 5 Modern Commodity Price Volatility 1960-2005 
Table 6 Volatility of US Export Prices 1880-1963 
Table 2 Commodity Price Data Sources 1700-1950 
Table 1 Comparative Terms of Trade Volatility by Region 1960-2000 
Table 4 Price Volatility during War, Peace and Autarky 1700-1950 
Table 3 Commodity versus Manufactures Price Volatility 1700-1896
Citations
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Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest
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Commodity volatility breaks
Andrew Vivian,Mark E. Wohar +1 more
TL;DR: This paper examined whether there are structural breaks in commodity spot return volatility using an iterative cumulative sum of squares procedure and then used GARCH (1,1) to model volatility during each regime.
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The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia
TL;DR: The authors developed an analytical framework and an empirical strategy to answer those questions, along with illustrative empirical results based on panel data from rural Ethiopian households, finding that the welfare gains from eliminating price volatility are increasing in household income, making food price stabilization a distributionally regressive policy.
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Why agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa remains low compared to the rest of the world – a historical perspective
TL;DR: In this article, the authors attributed the low agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa to factors inherent to Africa and its people, such as climate, climate, and soi beans.
References
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Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation
TL;DR: In this article, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced, which are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances.
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Tim Bollerslev,Tim Bollerslev +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in 1982 to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed.
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Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality
TL;DR: The authors suggests that the rapid increase in the proportion of college graduates in the United States labor force in 1970s may have been a causal factor in both the decline in the college premium during the 1970s and the large increase in inequality during the 1980s.
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Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth
Garey Ramey,Valerie A. Ramey +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations and find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth.