/pdf/handbook-on-methods-for-climate-change-impact-assessment-and-2u8gon5mzn.pdf

Estimating effects of climatic change on agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada

Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

Assumptions underlying impact assessments of climatic change for agriculture are explored conceptually and empirically. Variability in climatic conditions, the relevance of human decision-making, and the role of non-climatic forces are reviewed and captured in a model of agricultural adaptation to climate. An empirical analysis of farmers' decisions in light of variations in climate and other forces is based on a survey of 120 farm operators in southwestern Ontario. Many farmers were affected by variable climatic conditions over a six-year-period, and some undertook strategic adaptations in their farm operations. Frequency of dry years was the key climatic stimulus to farming adaptations. However, only 20 percent of farmers were sufficiently influenced by climatic conditions to respond with conscious changes in their farm operations.

background

Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation

Climate scenario development

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer’s training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives, with each initiative in one stage contributing to initiatives in a subsequent stage. The learning by doing inherent in such a process-oriented approach is a requirement owing to the many uncertainties associated with climate change.

/pdf/adapting-agriculture-to-climate-change-a-review-3c33n3o3la.pdf

Estimating effects of climatic change on agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada

Citations

Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation

Climate scenario development

Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

Developing and applying scenarios

Related Papers (5)

The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Vol. 1: Assessments in Cool, Temperate and Cold Regions

The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in Finland.

Potential CO2-induced climate effects on North American wheat-producing regions

The Impact of climatic variations on agriculture

The Climate change action plan