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Journal ArticleDOI

Goodness of prediction fit

John Aitchison
- 01 Dec 1975 - 
- Vol. 62, Iss: 3, pp 547-554
TLDR
In this paper, two widely used methods, one replacing the unknown parameter by an efficient estimate and so termed estimative and the other using a mixture of the possible density functions and commonly termed predictive, are compared.
Abstract
SUMMARY Fitting a parametric model or estimating a parametric density function plays an important role in a number of statistical applications. Two widely-used methods, one replacing the unknown parameter by an efficient estimate and so termed estimative and the other using a mixture of the possible density functions and commonly termed predictive, are compared. On a general criterion of closeness of fit based on a discriminating information measure the predictive method is shown to be preferable. Explicit measures of the relative closeness of predictive and estimative fits are obtained for gamma and multinormal models.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI

A Predictive Approach to Model Selection

TL;DR: In this article, a synthesis of Bayesian and sample-reuse approaches to the problem of high structure model selection geared to prediction is presented. But this approach is not suitable for high-dimensional models.
Book ChapterDOI

39 Dimensionality and sample size considerations in pattern recognition practice

TL;DR: It is shown that as the number of samples increases, not only does the designer have more confidence in the performance of the classifier, but also more measurements can be incorporated in the design of the classify without the fear of peaking in its performance.
Journal ArticleDOI

Information-theoretic asymptotics of Bayes methods

TL;DR: The authors examine the relative entropy distance D/sub n/ between the true density and the Bayesian density and show that the asymptotic distance is (d/2)(log n)+c, where d is the dimension of the parameter vector.
Journal ArticleDOI

Logistic-normal distributions:Some properties and uses

TL;DR: In this article, the logistic transformation applied to a 2-dimensional normal distribution produces a distribution over the d-dimensional simplex which can sensibly be termed a logistic-norma l distribution.
Book ChapterDOI

Prediction and Entropy

TL;DR: The emergence of the magic number 2 in recent statistical literature is explained by adopting the predictive point of view of statistics with entropy as the basic criterion of the goodness of a fitted model.
References
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Book

An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis

TL;DR: In this article, the distribution of the Mean Vector and the Covariance Matrix and the Generalized T2-Statistic is analyzed. But the distribution is not shown to be independent of sets of Variates.
Book

BMD : biomedical computer programs

TL;DR: This book is very referred for you because it gives not only the experience but also lesson, it is about this book that will give wellness for all people from many societies.