How should policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic differ in the developing world?
TLDR
In this paper, the authors quantitatively analyzes how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic should differ in developing countries, and they build an incomplete-markets macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and epidemiological dynamics that features several of the key distinctions between advanced and developing economies germane to the pandemic.Abstract:
This paper quantitatively analyzes how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic should differ in developing countries. To do so we build an incomplete-markets macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and epidemiological dynamics that features several of the key distinctions between advanced and developing economies germane to the pandemic. We focus in particular on differences in: age structure, fiscal capacity, healthcare capacity, informality, and the frequency of contacts between individuals at home, work, school and other locations. The model predicts that blanket lockdowns are less effective in developing countries, saving fewer lives per unit of lost GDP. In contrast, age-specific policies are even more effective, since they focus scarce public funds on shielding the smaller population of older individuals. School closures are also more effective at saving lives in developing countries, providing a greater reduction in secondary transmissions between children and older adults at home.read more
Citations
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Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1
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This Time it's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession
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Global Economic Prospects : June 2020
John Baffes,Alistair Dieppe,Justin Damien Guenette,Alain Kabundi,Sergiy Kasyanenko,Sinem Kilic Celik,Gene Kindberg-Hanlon,Patrick Alexander Kirby,Maryla Maliszewska,Hideaki Matsuoka,Peter Stephen Oliver Nagle,Yoki Okawa,Cedric Okou,Franz Ruch,Max Rudibert Steinbach,Naotaka Sugawara,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Dana Lauren Vorisek,Collette Mari Wheeler,Lei Sandy Ye,Shu Yu +20 more
TL;DR: The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to an already weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support.
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Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses
TL;DR: Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree.
References
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Online Appendix to: The Next Generation of the Penn World Table*
TL;DR: The Penn World Table (PWT) as mentioned in this paper has been used to compare real GDP comparisons across countries and over time, and the PWT version 8 will expand on previous versions of PWT in three respects.
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M. Ferguson,Daniel J Laydon,G Nedjati Gilani,Natsuko Imai,Kylie E. C. Ainslie,Marc Baguelin,Sangeeta N. Bhatia,A Boonyasiri,Z Cucunuba Perez,Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg,Amy Dighe,Ilaria Dorigatti,Han Fu,Katy A. M. Gaythorpe,W Green,Arran Hamlet,Wes Hinsley,Lucy C Okell,S Van Elsland,H Thompson,Robert Verity,Erik M. Volz,Haowei Wang,Y Wang,Patrick G T Walker,Caroline E. Walters,Peter Winskill,Charles Whittaker,Christl A. Donnelly,Steven Riley,Azra C. Ghani +30 more
TL;DR: Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell.
Journal ArticleDOI
Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the standard growth model modified to include precautionary saving motives and liquidity constraints, and address the impact on the aggregate saving rate, the importance of asset trading to individuals, and the relative inequality of wealth and income distributions.
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Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases.
Joël Mossong,Niel Hens,Mark Jit,Philippe Beutels,Kari Auranen,Rafael T. Mikolajczyk,Marco Massari,Stefania Salmaso,Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba,Jacco Wallinga,Janneke C. M. Heijne,Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys,Magdalena Rosinska,W. John Edmunds +13 more
TL;DR: This study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.