Journal ArticleDOI
Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia
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TLDR
In this paper, the structural vector autoregression (VAR) method is employed to identify the underlying shocks using a three-variable VAR model across the East Asian economies.Abstract:
The empirical suitability of the East Asian economies for potential monetary integration is assessed. The structural vector autoregression (VAR) method is employed to identify the underlying shocks using a three-variable VAR model across the East Asian economies. The estimates of the EEC are used as a benchmark to compare the size of the underlying shocks and the speed of adjustment to shocks in both regions to determine the feasibility of forming an optimum currency area (OCA) in East Asia. The empirical results do not display strong support for forming an OCA in the East Asian region. The results do imply, however, that some small subregions are potential candidates for OCAs, since their disturbances are correlated and small and these economies adjust rapidly to shocks.read more
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Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?
Kiyotaka Sato,Zhaoyong Zhang +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co-movements among these economies is examined, based on the optimum curr ency area theory.
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The endogeneity approach of the theory of optimum currency areas: what does it mean for ASEAN + 3?
Horst Löchel,Stefan Baumann +1 more
TL;DR: The authors analyzes if and how the experiences of European integration can be used for the progress of East Asia integration especially of the ASEAN+3 countries and concludes that monetary integration in East Asia could make progress via sub grouping of clusters of countries at best with the instrument of a kind of an 'Asian snake' similar to the European exchange rate system in the early 70's.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regionalization vs. Globalization
TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of global and regional economic linkages for the evolution of business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960-2010.
Journal ArticleDOI
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Implications for the Prospects of Monetary Integration in the Region
TL;DR: In this article, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN was investigated, for the first time, using a three variable recursive VAR model.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors test whether the recorded increase in intra-ASEAN trade is leading the ASEAN members to closer economic integration and thus to better satisfy the criteria for a common currency.
References
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A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
TL;DR: A theory of optimum currency areas is proposed in this paper, where the authors argue that periodic balance-of-payments crises will remain an integral feature of the international economic system as long as fixed exchange rates and rigid wage and price levels prevent the terms of trade from fulfilling a natural role in the adjustment process.
ReportDOI
The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances
Olivier Blanchard,Danny Quah +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not, and they interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances.
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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria
TL;DR: The authors investigated the relationship between international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations and found that countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles and were more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union after taking steps toward economic integration than before.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Endogenity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria
TL;DR: This paper investigated the relationship between international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations and found that countries with closer trade links tend to have more tightly correlated business cycles, while countries with weaker trade links tended to have weaker business cycles.