Showing papers in "The World Economy in 2006"

Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability

Abstract: Data from several investor surveys suggest that macroeconomic instability, investment restrictions, corruption and political instability have a negative impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) to Africa. However, the relationship between FDI and these country characteristics has not been studied. This paper uses panel data for 22 countries over the period 1984–2000 to examine the impact of natural resources, market size, government policies, political instability and the quality of the host country's institutions on FDI. It also analyses the importance of natural resources and market size vis-a-vis government policy and the host country's institutions in directing FDI flows. The main result is that natural resources and large markets promote FDI. However, lower inflation, good infrastructure, an educated population, openness to FDI, less corruption, political stability and a reliable legal system have a similar effect. A benchmark specification shows that a decline in the corruption from the level of Nigeria to that of South Africa has the same positive effect on FDI as increasing the share of fuels and minerals in total exports by about 35 per cent. These results suggest that countries that are small or lack natural resources can attract FDI by improving their institutions and policy environment.

On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries

Abstract: We analyse the Granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi-directional causality between the FDI-to-GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI has a lasting impact on GDP, while GDP has no longrun impact on the FDI-to-GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long-run effects from FDI to GDP. This finding may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment

Abstract: This paper begins by a brief review of empirical evidence that seems to indicate that economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with natural resource abundance or intensity across countries. The paper then proposes a new linkage between natural resources and economic growth, through saving and investment. When the share of output that accrues to the owners of natural resources rises, the demand for capital falls and this leads to lower real interest rates and less rapid growth. Moreover, the analysis shows that the discrepancy between the privately and socially optimal rates of growth increases with the natural capital share. Empirical evidence from 85 countries from 1965 to 1998 suggests that natural capital may on average crowd out physical as well as human capital, thereby inhibiting economic growth. The results also suggest that, across countries, heavy dependence on natural resources may hurt saving and investment indirectly by slowing down the development of the financial system.

FDI and Growth: What Causes What?

Abstract: This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and Thailand, there is a strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of our results.

Cursed by Resources or Institutions

Abstract: Natural resource abundant countries constitute both growth losers and growth winners, and the main difference between the success cases and the cases of failure lays in the quality of institutions. With grabber friendly institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down, while with producer friendly institutions more natural resources increase income. Such a theory finds strong support in data. A key question we also discuss is if resources in addition alter the quality of institutions. When that is the case, countries with bad institutions suffer a double resource curse - as the deterioration of institutions strenghtens the negative effect of more natural resources.

Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocs on the Path to Global Free Trade

Abstract: This paper addresses the final steps to global free trade – what they might look like, what sort of political economy forces might drive them, and what the WTO might do to help. Two facts form the point of departure: (1) Regionalism is here to stay; world trade is regulated by a motley assortment of unilateral, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements; (2) this motley assortment is not the best way to organise world trade. Moving to global duty-free trade will require a multilateralisation of regionalism. This paper presents the political economy logic of trade liberalisation and uses it to structure a narrative of world trade liberalisation since 1947. The logic is then used to project the world tariff map in 2010, arguing that the pattern will be marked by fractals – fuzzy, leaky trade blocs made up of fuzzy, leaky sub-blocs (fuzzy since the proliferation of FTAs makes it impossible to draw sharp lines around the Big-3 trade blocs, and leaky since some FTAs create free trade ‘canals’ linking the Big-3 blocs). The paper then presents a novel political economy mechanism – spaghetti bowls as building blocs – whereby offshoring creates a force that encourages the multilateralisation of regionalism. Finally, the paper suggests three things the WTO might do to help multilateralise regionalism.

A Review of the Stern Review

Abstract: , 2006) wasdelivered to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer ofthe United Kingdom in late October of 2006. A team of 23 people, led bySir Nicholas Stern and supported by many consultants, worked for a littleover a year to produce a report of some 575 pages on the economics of cli-mate change, and their work has certainly drawn substantial attention inthe media. Across its 575 pages, the

Foreign direct investment, regulations, and growth

Abstract: This paper explores the linkage between income growth rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. So far the evidence is rather mixed, as no robust relationship between FDI and income growth has been established. The authors argue that countries need a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to be able to benefit from FDI. Using a comprehensive data set for regulations, they test this hypothesis and find evidence that excessive regulations restrict growth through FDI only in the most regulated economies. This result holds true for different specifications of the econometric model, including instrumental variable regressions.

Does Outsourcing to Central and Eastern Europe really threaten manual workers' jobs in Germany?

Abstract: Starting from the observation of significant within-industry skill-upgrading, this paper analyses how international outsourcing has affected the relative demand for manual workers in German manufacturing during the 1990s We combine trade and input-output data to disentangle international outsourcing and trade in final goods and differentiate between the effects of narrowly and broadly defined outsourcing towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC), the European Union (EU15) and the rest of the world Accounting for the endogeneity of international outsourcing by applying instrumental variable techniques, the empirical analysis showed that international outsourcing is indeed an important explanatory factor for the observed decline in relative demand for manual workers in German manufacturing Particularly, outsourcing towards CEEC plays a major role, irrespective of whether a narrow or wide measure of outsourcing is applied Using a narrow outsourcing measure and controlling for the adverse demand effects of skill-biased technological change, time-changing industry characteristics, wages as well as industry unobserved characteristics, international outsourcing towards CEEC is found to have lowered the manual workers’ wage bill share by 27 per-centage points between 1991 and 2000 In its magnitude this effect is comparable to the skill-biased effect of technological progress, as captured by our controls Outsourcing towards countries outside CEEC and outside the EU15 is found to have small negative effects on the relative demand for manual workers, but only if one follows the broad definition of international outsourcing Outsourcing towards the EU15 is, however, always found to be insignificant

What is the Economics of Climate Change

Abstract: A major review of the economics of climate change under the leadership of Professor Sir Nicholas Stern was announced at the end of July 2005, reporting to the United Kingdom’s Chancellor of the Exchequer and to the Prime Minister. The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is due to report in autumn 2006. This article sets out some of the issues the review is considering.

Remittance Receipt and Business Ownership in the Dominican Republic

Abstract: Using household-level data from the Dominican communities in the Latin American Migration Project (LAMP-DR7), we examine the links between remittance receipt and business ownership. We find that while the existence of a family business attracts remittance inflows, these monetary funds are associated with a reduced likelihood of business entrepreneurship. These results are consistent with various hypotheses regarding remittances and business investments. First, remittances may be motivated by the availability of investment opportunities in the home community. Second, remittances may respond to a bequest motive on the part of the emigrant, who may wish to lay claim on family assets when returning home. Lastly, remittances may cause an income effect that reduces family labour force participation and, correspondingly, the likelihood of family-run business investments.

Why Is China So Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness

Abstract: This paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of China in the world economy and relative to its East Asian rivals. China has been highly successful in capturing world export markets. Chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs. It reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in China’s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications. These improvements are closely related to foreign participation in China’s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises.

Trade policy reforms and the structure of protection in Vietnam

Abstract: This paper examines the current state of the trade policy regime in Vietnam against the backdrop of market-oriented policy reforms undertaken over the past one-and-a-half decades. The core of the paper is an in-depth analysis of the structure of protection, focusing on both incentives for import-competing production and the bias in the incentive structure against export production compared to import-competing production. It is found that, despite notable reform efforts, the structure of protection in Vietnam is still out of line with that of the major trading nations in the region, in terms of the level and the inter-industry dispersion of nominal and effective protection rates. There is a clear anti-export bias in the incentive structure, even though the degree of the bias has considerably declined over the years. There is no evidence to justify the existing protection structure on grounds of infant industry protection or employment generation.

Remittances and Development in Latin America

Abstract: Flows of workers’ remittances have become a major source of external finance for developing countries and are particularly important in Latin America and the Caribbean, where they are estimated to have reached $40 billion in 2004. Not surprisingly, academics, policymakers and development practitioners in general have been devoting increasing attention to the potential development impact that these flows may have on receiving countries. This paper contributes to this debate along four dimensions. First, it reviews the evolution of remittances flows to Latin America, using Balance of Payments data, and compares these statistics with estimates of remittances income based on Household Surveys. Second, the paper describes the varying profile of remittances recipients in ten Latin American countries. Third, the paper reviews the few macro- and microeconomic studies that have estimated the impact of remittances on poverty and inequality. Finally, the paper expands some of the existing works to investigate the extent to which that impact is different in Latin America and varies across countries in the region.

Preference Utilisation and Tariff Reduction in EU Imports from ACP Countries

Abstract: textDespite the long relationship between the EU and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment, the ACP states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy. This paper examines the non-least developed ACP countries preferential trade with the EU. The objective is to explain the determinants of preferential exports of ACP countries towards the EU and to assess the impact of preferences on trade volumes. We also investigate the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences.

Diaspora and Development

Abstract: Jagdish Bhagwati's proposal for a ‘brains tax’ to be levied on the incomes of the diaspora from developing countries residing in the developed countries and the proceeds to be remitted to the countries of origin of the diaspora is well known. In recent years the voluntary contributions or remittances from the diaspora to their countries of origin have often been higher than the aid monies given to these countries. It is now increasingly recognised that the diaspora may have an active role to play in the development process of their countries of origin. They are not only a source of funds; they are also a rich source of skills and know-how. This paper analyses the potential of the diaspora as agents of change in their countries of origin and argues that the social rate of return to a unit of diaspora investments may be higher than that for a unit of foreign direct investment from non-diaspora sources.

Targeting Aid to the Needy and Deserving: Nothing But Promises?

Abstract: By reallocating aid to where it is needed most and where a productive use is most likely, donors could help alleviate poverty in developing countries. The rhetoric of donors suggests that this insight has increasingly shaped the allocation of aid. We assess the poverty and policy orientation of bilateral and multilateral aid in different ways. In addition to presenting stylised facts based on bivariate correlations, we apply a Tobit model that captures both altruistic and selfish donor motives. We find little evidence supporting the view that the targeting of aid has improved significantly. Most donors provide higher aid to relatively poor countries, but so far the fight against poverty has not resulted in a stronger focus on needy recipients with favourable local conditions. The estimation results reveal that the policy orientation of aid critically depends on how local conditions are measured. In general, however, donors appear to be less policy-oriented than poverty-oriented. The response of donors to changing institutional and policy conditions in recipient countries turns out to be fairly weak. We reject the proposition that multilateral aid is clearly superior to bilateral aid in terms of rewarding poor countries with better policies and institutions.

The Causal Relationship Between Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract: This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economics development for the period 1976–99. The results of unit roots and Johansen co-integration tests indicate variations in degrees of integration among the sample countries. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI interpreted as the higher level of ICT investment leads to increased inflow of FDI. ICT contributes to economic growth indirectly by attracting more foreign direct investment. In developed countries there already exist a build up ICT capacity which causes inflow of FDI, while in developing countries ICT capacity must be build up to attract FDI. The inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and capacity.

Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland: Policy Implications for Emerging Economies

Abstract: The increasingly important role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the global economy is linked to questions of how the foreign direct investment (FDI) they control impacts on overall economic activity in the recipient countries. Of specific interest is the policy context in which such FDI flows into the developing country and how a government can influence the impact of those flows. This paper reviews some of the literature in two key contextual areas, namely, when the host country policy regime promotes FDI selectively, and secondly, where it promotes the creation of industrial clusters. It explores the insights of this literature for the development of the strong MNE sector in the Irish economy and draws lessons from the Irish experience for emerging economies.

Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

Abstract: of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy an d has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empiricall y examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co-movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum curr ency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North-North, North-South and South-North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North-North and North-South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home-biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.

The Stern Review: A Dual Critique

Abstract: The Stern Review, described as the most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change, was published on 30 October 2006. The twin papers from a combined team of scientists and economists present a critique in two parts of the Stern Review. Part I focuses on scientific issues and their treatment in the Review. It forms the point of departure for Part II which deals with economic aspects. Each paper has its own list of authors. In relation to both scientific and economic issues, the authors question the accuracy and completeness of the Stern Review’s analysis and the objectivity of its treatment. They conclude that the Review fails to present an accurate picture of scientific understanding of climate change issues, and will reinforce ill-informed alarm about climate change. Two interrelated features of the Stern Review are that it greatly understates the extent of uncertainty as to possible developments, in highly complex systems that are not well understood, over a period of two centuries or more; and its treatment of sources and evidence is persistently selective and biased. These twin features have combined to make the Review a vehicle for speculative alarmism. In the judgement of the authors of the Dual Critique, the Stern Review mishandles data; gives too little attention to actual observation and evidence, as distinct from the results of model-based exercises; and takes no account of the failures of due disclosure, and the chronic limitations of peer reviewing, that have been characteristic of work relating to climate change which governments have commissioned and drawn on. As to specifically economic aspects, the authors note among other weaknesses that the Review systematically overstates projected costs of climate change, partly though by no means wholly as a result of its failure to acknowledge the scope for long-term adaptation to possible global warming; underestimates the likely cost—including to the world’s poor—of the drastic global mitigation programme that it calls for; and proposes worldwide adoption of a specially low rate of interest for discounting the costs and benefits of mitigation, on the basis of inadequate analysis and without regard for the problems and risks that would result. So far from being an authoritative guide to the economics of climate change, the Stern Review is deeply flawed. It does not provide a basis for informed and responsible policies.

Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria

Abstract: Foreign trade is usually not based on cash transactions, but rather sales on credit are the rule. The resulting monitoring costs for lenders and the risk of default on accounts receivable are part of the costs associated with cross-border goods transactions. Relative to domestic trade credit, cross-border credit creates trade barriers due to differences in language, business practice, jurisdiction and payment enforceability between trading partners. Export credit insurance has long been a domain of public export credit agencies. Only since the early 1980s private insurance is gaining ground. Using disaggregated panel data for goods exports from Austria over the period 1996 to 2002, we show that public export credit guarantees have a less than proportional positive effect on international trade volume. They predominantly affect the country structure of foreign trade but leave the industry specialisation almost unchanged.

A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path-dependency in Integration

Abstract: This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non-EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path-dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.

Economic, Neurobiological and Behavioral Perspectives on Building America’s Future Workforce

Abstract: A growing proportion of the US workforce will have been raised in disadvantaged environments that are associated with relatively high proportions of individuals with diminished cognitive and social skills. A cross-disciplinary examination of research in economics, developmental psychology, and neurobiology reveals a striking convergence on a set of common principles that account for the potent effects of early environment on the capacity for human skill development. Central to these principles are the findings that early experiences have a uniquely powerful influence on the development of cognitive and social skills, as well as on brain architecture and neurochemistry; that both skill development and brain maturation are hierarchical processes in which higher level functions depend on, and build on, lower level functions; and that the capacity for change in the foundations of human skill development and neural circuitry is highest earlier in life and decreases over time. These findings lead to the conclusion that the most efficient strategy for strengthening the future workforce, both economically and neurobiologically, and for improving its quality of life is to invest in the environments of disadvantaged children during the early childhood years.

Diamonds Are a Rebel's Best Friend

Abstract: Many countries that produce rough diamonds have experienced a highly adverse pattern of economic development. In this article, we propose that the primary reason for the negative impact is that diamonds easily become the prize in predatory struggles between loot-seeking rebels and more or less kleptocratic governments. In weakly institutionalised countries like Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, this theory works well, but it does not explain the impressive growth record of diamond-rich Botswana and Namibia. For a deeper understanding of these countries’ success, we point at the crucial differences between kimberlite and alluvial mining and the effect of having the world-leading firm De Beers as a partner. Indeed, we argue that in countries like Angola, diamonds can never be a major vehicle for sustained growth, although the ongoing Kimberley process for eliminating conflict diamonds probably has contributed to making several African countries more stable.

Trade and Financial Integration in East Asia: Effects on Co‐movements

Abstract: In this paper we explore three important areas where deeper trade and financial integration in East Asia can influence: (1) business cycle co-movements in the region, (2) the extent of risk sharing across countries and (3) price co-movements across countries. We find evidence that trade integration enhances co-movements of output but not of consumption across countries. Especially the fact that trade integration does not raise co-movements of consumption as much as that of output is interpreted as trade integration does not improve the extent of risk sharing. Co-movements of price arise most significantly as trade integration deepens, lowering the border effects and allowing better opportunities for resource reallocation across countries. In contrast, financial integration demonstrates much weaker evidence of enhancing co-movements across countries. Deeper financial integration improves price co-movements weakly but does not enhance output or consumption co-movements at all. However, since the current level of financial integration in East Asia is quite low, our evidence is too early to firmly determine the role of financial integration.

The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues

Abstract: Four West African nations have demanded that the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda include a Cotton Initiative that involves two issues: cutting cotton subsidies and tariffs, and assisting farm productivity growth in Africa. The authors provide estimates of the potential economic impacts of (1) complete or partial removal of cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally, and (2) cotton productivity growth through the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties. They use the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Their results confirm that-unlike for other agricultural subsidies and tariffs-for cotton it is subsidy reductions rather than tariff cuts that would make by far the largest impact. For Sub-Saharan Africa the potential gains are huge relative to the effects on that region of reforming other merchandise trade policies. And they could be more than doubled if that reform provided the cash for farmers to take advantage of the biotechnology revolution and adopt GM cotton varieties. But those potential gains, and the affordability of switching to costly GM seed, depend crucially on the extent to which high-income countries are willing to lower domestic support to their cotton farmers.

Reforming the IMF's Weighted Voting System

Abstract: This paper surveys various proposals to reform the IMF's quota determination process and voting regime. We first provide some necessary context by describing IMF decision rules, including the methods by which the Fund determines quotas according to countries’ relative positions in the world economy. This section also addresses the arbitrariness of the IMF quota determination process and how IMF decision rules hamper developing country influence within the Fund. Following this, we review several proposals designed to provide developing countries greater voice in IMF decision-making. We conclude that the problems of developing country representation are not likely to be fixed by either reallocating quotas on the margins of the existing IMF system or by tinkering with the quota-determination formulas. Rather, more fundamental institutional adjustments will be required.