Jihad Dramatically Transformed? Sageman on Jihad and the Internet

TLDR: Sageman as mentioned in this paper argued that Jihad in the modern world is changing from a centrally organized and structured activity into a more dispersed, decentralized movement in which small groups self-organize to carry out attacks.

Abstract: In his book Leaderless Jihad, 1 Marc Sageman claims, as the title indicates, that Jihad in the modern world is changing from a centrally organized and structured activity into a more dispersed, decentralized movement in which small groups self-organize to carry out attacks. Bruce Hoffman has challenged this claim and Sageman's way of supporting it, arguing that al Qaeda central is alive and well. 2 As is often the case in such disputes, in so far as the substance is concerned, there is truth on both sides. 3 The kind of self-organizing groups that Sageman describes do exist, and sometimes get help from overseas, but are not the only Jihad threat we face.As this debate rumbled on and became part of the debate over what to do about Afghanistan, 4 two things became clear. First, neither Hoffman nor Sageman, or others weighing in, considered the strategic consequences of the network structure they are disputing about. There is a tendency to assume, for example, that networks are powerful organizational structures inherently difficult for industrial-age bureaucracies like the United States government to deal with. Sageman alludes to this larger argument by mentioning the "difficulty of national bureaucracies trying to combat terrorist market forces," although Sageman does recognize some of the limits of so-called leaderless movements (pp. 145, 146). 5 In fact, networks, or decentralized organizations and activities, have weaknesses; and hierarchies, or centralized organizations, have strengths that on balance give the latter distinct advantages against both al Qaeda central and the al Qaeda movement. 6The second point that became clear was that not enough attention had been paid to the claims that Sageman made about the role of the internet in the development of what he calls the leaderless Jihad movement. These claims are clear and quite strong. Sageman claims it is the internet that "has dramatically transformed the structure and dynamic of the evolving threat of global Islamic terrorism by changing the nature of terrorists' interactions... Starting around 2004, communication and inspiration shifted from face-to-face interactions...to interaction on the internet" (p. 109). Assessing Sageman's claim is important because if he is right, it would suggest that we switch attention and resources to combating digital recruitment. If he is wrong, then this would be a waste of resources.As Sageman presents his argument, it depends on two interrelated arguments. The first is that web sites presenting Jihadist propaganda or bomb-making instructions and other operational advice are not the engine driving extremist Islam. Sageman points out, for example, that bombs built only with instructions from web sites have either not exploded or have had limited effects (p. 113). More important, he discounts the effect of the propaganda on web sites in encouraging radicalization and commitment to the extremist cause. He denies that images found on these web sites have "intrinsic power to influence people into taking arms against the West." Such images, Sageman claims, "merely reinforce already made-up minds" (p. 114). Sageman offers no evidence to support his denial of the importance of the images. What he does instead is to offer his second argument: the interactivity of the internet (particularly forums and chat rooms) is changing human relationships in a revolutionary way and hence, he implicitly assumes, must be changing the way those who become extremists interact online. In support of this claim, Sageman cites one article and six terrorism cases he says show the revolutionary impact of the internet and substantiate his claim that the internet "has dramatically transformed the structure and dynamic of the evolving threat of global Islamic terrorism."Before examining Sageman's argument and his evidence in detail, we should note two general points. First, even if Sageman is right about the effects of internet fora and chat rooms, it would not prove that the propaganda images on web sites are not aiding radicalization. …