Journal ArticleDOI
Logical foundations and measurement of subjective probability
TLDR
It is argued that the rules of consistency form sufficient conditions for the existence of formally admissible subjective probabilities, although other, logical or empirical, reasons may induce to further restrictions.About:
This article is published in Acta Psychologica.The article was published on 1970-01-01. It has received 73 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Imprecise probability & Subjective expected utility.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations
TL;DR: Proper scoring rules, i.e., devices of a certain class for eliciting a person's probabilities and other expectations, are studied, mainly theoretically but with some speculations about application as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The risk concept—historical and recent development trends
TL;DR: Over the last 15–20 years the authors have seen a shift from rather narrow perspectives based on probabilities to ways of thinking which highlight events, consequences and uncertainties, however, some of the more narrow perspectives are still strongly influencing the risk field, although arguments can be provided against their use.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regression and ANOVA with Zero-One Data: Measures of Residual Variation
TL;DR: In this article, general measures of residual variation are considered, including ordinary squared error and prediction error as well as the log likelihood, and the relation of Goodman and Kruskal's measures of categorical association to the theory of penalty functions and probability elicitation is demonstrated.
Journal ArticleDOI
The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation
TL;DR: The authors provide a review of the psychological research on assessing probabilities, both old and new, and give concrete guidelines for eliciting expert knowledge, including the importance of framing and cognitive models.
Posted Content
A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs
Karl H. Schlag,James Tremewan,Joel J. van der Weele,Joel J. van der Weele,Joel J. van der Weele +4 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons, and propose some extensions to the standard framework, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order efects, hedging, and different ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects.
References
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Book
Theory of probability
Harold Jeffreys,R. Bruce Lindsay +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce the concept of direct probabilities, approximate methods and simplifications, and significant importance tests for various complications, including one new parameter, and various complications for frequency definitions and direct methods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible and explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator.