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Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood

TLDR
Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent Levels of Self-esteem, and the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self- esteem and depression.
Abstract
Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

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Self-esteem and depression 1
Running head: SELF-ESTEEM AND DEPRESSION
Low Self-Esteem Prospectively Predicts Depression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood
Ulrich Orth and Richard W. Robins
University of California, Davis
Brent W. Roberts
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
© American Psychological Association. This article has been accepted for
publication but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination, and
proofreading process. This article may not exactly replicate the final, authoritative
version published in the journal. It is not the copy of record. Please cite this article
as follows:
Orth, U., Robins, R. W., & Roberts, B. W. (2008). Low self-esteem prospectively
predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 95, 695-708.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.95.3.695
Ulrich Orth
Department of Psychology
University of California
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
uorth@ucdavis.edu
530-752-8846 (office)
530-752-2087 (fax)

Self-esteem and depression 2
Abstract
Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies yet little is
known about their prospective effects on each other. The “vulnerability model” hypothesizes that
low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the “scar model” hypothesizes
that low self-esteem is an outcome not a cause of depression. To test these models, we used two
large longitudinal data sets each with four repeated assessments between the age of 15 and 21
years, and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low
self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent
levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women in both longitudinal studies,
and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the
results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model of self-esteem and depression.
Key Words: self-esteem, depression, adolescence, young adulthood

Self-esteem and depression 3
Low Self-Esteem Prospectively Predicts Depression in Adolescence and Young Adulthood
Many theories of depression postulate that low self-esteem is a defining feature of
depression (e.g., Abramson, Seligman, & Teasdale, 1978; Beck, 1967; Blatt, D'Afflitti, &
Quinlan, 1976; Brown & Harris, 1978). Indeed, numerous studies have documented strong
concurrent relations between low self-esteem and depression (Joiner, Katz, & Lew, 1999; Kernis,
Grannemann, & Mathis, 1991; Lewinsohn, Hoberman, & Rosenbaum, 1988; J. E. Roberts &
Monroe, 1992). However, the nature of this relation specifically, the temporal order remains
unclear. Does low self-esteem lead to depression, does depression contribute to the development
of low self-esteem, or are they reciprocally related?
Two dominant models exist in the literature. The “vulnerability model” hypothesizes that
low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, especially in the face of major life stressors
(e.g., Beck, 1967; Butler, Hokanson, & Flynn, 1994; Metalsky, Joiner, Hardin, & Abramson,
1993; J. E. Roberts & Monroe, 1992; Whisman & Kwon, 1993). For example, according to
Beck’s (1967) cognitive theory of depression, negative beliefs about the self – one of three
central components of depressive disorders are not just symptomatic of depression but play a
critical causal role in its etiology.
In contrast, the “scar model” hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome of
depression rather than a cause. Specifically, depression is assumed to persistently deteriorate
personal resources such as self-esteem, even after remittance of a depressive episode; that is,
episodes of depression may leave “scars” in the self-concept of the individual, which
progressively chip away at self-esteem over time (cf. Coyne, Gallo, Klinkman, & Calarco, 1998;
Coyne & Whiffen, 1995; Rohde, Lewinsohn, & Seeley, 1990; Zeiss & Lewinsohn, 1988).

Self-esteem and depression 4
Thus far, the extant research does not provide clear support in favor of either the
vulnerability or the scar model, in part because the scar model has rarely been tested empirically
and in part because the two models have seldom been pitted against each other in the context of a
single study. To further address this issue, the present research uses data from two longitudinal
studies to examine reciprocal relations between self-esteem and depression in adolescence and
young adulthood. Below we first review models of the relation between self-esteem and
depression and then summarize previous longitudinal research on the link between the two
constructs.
Models of the Relation between Self-Esteem and Depression
The Vulnerability Model
The vulnerability model states that low self-esteem is a risk factor for future depression.
The underlying assumption of the vulnerability model is that self-esteem, like other personality
traits, is a diathesis exerting causal influence in the onset and maintenance of depression. Low
self-esteem might contribute to depression through both interpersonal and intrapersonal
pathways. One interpersonal pathway is that some low self-esteem individuals excessively seek
reassurance about their personal worth from friends and relationship partners, increasing the risk
of being rejected by their support partners and thereby increasing the risk of depression (Joiner,
2000; Joiner, Alfano, & Metalsky, 1992; Joiner et al., 1999). A second interpersonal pathway is
that low self-esteem individuals seek negative feedback from their relationship partners to verify
their negative self-concept, which may further degrade their self-concept (Giesler, Josephs, &
Swann, 1996; Joiner, 1995; Swann, Wenzlaff, & Tafarodi, 1992). A third interpersonal pathway
is that low self-esteem motivates social avoidance, thereby impeding social support, which has
been linked to depression (cf. Ottenbreit & Dobson, 2004). Relatedly, low self-esteem

Self-esteem and depression 5
individuals are more sensitive to rejection and tend to perceive their relationship partner’s
behavior more negatively, thereby undermining attachment and satisfaction in close relationships
(Murray, Holmes, & Griffin, 2000; Murray, Rose, Bellavia, Holmes, & Kusche, 2002). A fourth
interpersonal pathway is that low self-esteem individuals engage in antisocial behaviors, such as
aggression and substance abuse, that might contribute to their feeling excluded and alienated
from others (Donnellan, Trzesniewski, Robins, Moffitt, & Caspi, 2005).
An intrapersonal pathway explaining how low self-esteem contributes to depression
might operate through rumination. The tendency to ruminate about negative aspects of the self is
closely linked to depression (Morrow & Nolen-Hoeksema, 1990; Nolen-Hoeksema, 1991, 2000;
Nolen-Hoeksema & Morrow, 1991; Spasojevic & Alloy, 2001; Trapnell & Campbell, 1999).
Mor and Winquist’s (2002) meta-analysis of correlational and experimental studies showed that
self-focused attention strongly and causally influences negative affect (including depression)
and, moreover, that a ruminative self-focus has a particularly strong impact (compared to a
reflective self-focus).
The Scar Model
The scar model, in contrast to the vulnerability model, states that low self-esteem, like
other correlates of depression such as negative attributional style, might be a consequence of
depression rather than a causal factor (Lewinsohn, Steinmetz, Larson, & Franklin, 1981; Rohde
et al., 1990). Indeed, it is conceivable that the self-concept and self-esteem are permanently
changed by the experience of depression, especially after major depressive episodes. Again,
depression might impair an individual’s self-esteem through both intrapersonal and interpersonal
pathways. A possible intrapersonal pathway is that the experience of depression might influence
self-esteem by persistently altering the way individuals process self-relevant information; for

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Frequently Asked Questions (7)
Q1. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Self-esteem and depression 1 running head: self-esteem and depression low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood" ?

In this paper, the authors used two large longitudinal data sets each with four repeated assessments between the age of 15 and 21 years, and 18 and 21 year, respectively. 

Future research should seek to identify the mediating processes of the effect of self-esteem on depression, which might consist in, for example, the interpersonal and intrapersonal processes described in the Introduction. 

Cross-laggedregression analyses indicated that low self-esteem significantly predicted subsequent levels of depression, controlling for prior levels of depression. 

if the low stability of depression across time indicated low reliability, the chances of explaining this variable by using other variables would be low. 

The size of the cross-lagged effects can be assessed by converting the regression coefficients into the r-metric (using sample size and the Z-values computed from the unstandardized coefficients and their associated standard errors; see, e.g., Rosenthal, 1994). 

In the second cross-lagged model (Model 4), the authors constrained the structural parameters (stability coefficients and cross-lagged coefficients) to be equal across all three time intervals. 

One strength of the present research is the convergence of findings across Study 1 and 2,which helps alleviate some methodological concerns.