Population trends in China and India (A Review)

TLDR: Since 1951 the demographic development of India has been close to the high variant suggested in Coale and Hoovers classic "Population Growth and Economic development in Low Income Countries" and the foregone advantages of population control are similar to the benefits cited by the Chinese in support of their stringent birth planning campaign.

Abstract: Because the combined populations of China and India represent about 40% of total world population evolving population dynamics in them are of significance to the well-being of a substantial proportion of the total world population. Published demographic data for India are extensive but less than completely accurate while data for China are sparse and potentially precise but of an accuracy that cannot be fully verified. China grew about 78% and India about 89% between 1951-81 with Chinas cumulative growth less despite lower mortality because of a greater decline in the birth rate. Total fertility rates in China and India respectively were about 5.5 and 6.0 in the 1950s and 2.5 and 4.9 in the late 1970s. Life expectancies rose from about 40-45 in China and under 35 in India in 1951 to about 65 in China and almost 50 in India in the late 1970s. Although the 2 countries are very different in economic and political organization their populations are still over 80% rural about 70% of their labor forces are in agriculture manufacturing has risen more rapidly than aggregate national production in each and estimated per capita incomes are still small in both. Chinas mortality level is more favorable because the government emphasizes egalitarian income distribution and health care and the central organization is probably more effective in providing preventive health care. The greater fertility reduction in China did not occur because of a more consistent government position in favor of lower fertility the Chinese having undergone several changes of direction on family planning since 1951 in comparison to the constancy of the Indian position. Chinas reduction occurred because of more effective government measures once a belated commitment was made to reduce fertility and because of a social context more favorable to a fall in the birth rate. Since 1951 the demographic development of India has been close to the high variant suggested in Coale and Hoovers classic "Population Growth and Economic development in Low Income Countries" and the foregone advantages of population control are similar to the benefits cited by the Chinese in support of their stringent birth planning campaign. Both China and India will inevitably have large population increases before their population growth stabilizes because of their young age structures.