Predicting the Incumbent Party Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections

TLDR: For example, this article pointed out that even the firmly rooted structure of this process, the majority of which is some 240 years old, and the solidarity exuded by “dyed in the wool” Republicans and Democrats, has been transformed into what often appears to be a chaotic frenzy.

Abstract: Once every four years, it has become an American ritual to have the opportunity to make history and change a major part of the world by electing or reelecting a president. Certainly, presidential election years feature not only the symbolic exercising of a fundamental American right, but also the fruits and labors of an extraordinarily complex political process. However, even the firmly rooted structure of this process, the majority of which is some 240 years old, and the solidarity exuded by “dyed in the wool” Republicans and Democrats, has been transformed into what often appears to be a chaotic frenzy. Clouding the matter even further, recent advancements in information technology have increased mass media attention surrounding campaigns. The publicizing of debates, primaries, polls, and political mudslinging is now embedded in the political system and can be transmitted around the world in the blink of an eye. Unquestionably, the process of electing a president has long involved campaigns, primaries and caucuses, debates, polls, and pundits. Yet, in a modern way, our political preoccupation often appears unnecessarily self‐created, mundane, phlegmatic, and to some extent capricious. The impetus of election-year popularity and commercialization are intertwined with an established ritual so profoundly rooted in American history. Indeed, as the modern process unwinds and more often than not meanders, recent history has revealed that, deep‐