Journal ArticleDOI
The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis
J. Robert Beck,Stephen G. Pauker +1 more
TLDR
A general- purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process is described and it is shown how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status.Abstract:
The physician's estimate of prognosis under alternative treatment plans is a principal factor in therapeutic decision making. Current methods of reporting prognosis, which include five-year survivals, survival curves, and quality-adjusted life expectancy, are crude estimates of natural history. In this paper we describe a general-purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process and show how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Markov models in medical decision making: a practical guide.
TL;DR: The ability of the Markov model to represent repetitive events and the time dependence of both probabilities and utilities allows for more accurate representation of clinical settings that involve these issues.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Beaver Dam Health Outcomes study: Initial Catalog of Health-state Quality Factors
Dennis G. Fryback,Erik J. Dasbach,Ronald Klein,Barbara E.K. Klein,Norma Dorn,Kathy Peterson,Patrica A. Martin +6 more
TL;DR: The authors believe data from the BDHOS will provide researchers and policy makers a reference col lection of vital statistics for health-related quality of life and provide a way to compare results from studies that utilize different indices from among the four principal measures of theBDHOS.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Recent Decline in Mortality From Coronary Heart Disease, 1980-1990: The Effect of Secular Trends in Risk Factors and Treatment
M. G. Myriam Hunink,Lee Goldman,Lee Goldman,Anna N. A. Tosteson,Anna N. A. Tosteson,Murray A. Mittleman,Paula A. Goldman,Lawrence W. Williams,Joel Tsevat,Milton C. Weinstein +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, a computer-simulation state-transition model of the US population between the ages of 35 and 84 years was developed to forecast coronary mortality in the United States.
Book
Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values
M. G. Myriam Hunink,Milton C. Weinstein,Eve Wittenberg,Michael Drummond,Joseph S. Pliskin,John B. Wong,Paul Glasziou +6 more
TL;DR: This text takes a proactive, systematic and rational approach to medical decision making and provides an essential resource for trainees and researchers involved in medical decision modelling, evidence-based medicine, clinical epidemiology, comparative effectiveness, public health, health economics, and health technology assessment.
Journal ArticleDOI
Estimating future hepatitis C morbidity, mortality, and costs in the United States.
TL;DR: The results confirm prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections and suggest that HCV may lead to a substantial health and economic burden over the next 10 to 20 years.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
On the Nature of the Function Expressive of the Law of Human Mortality, and on a New Mode of Determining the Value of Life Contingencies
TL;DR: The frequent opportunities I have had of receiving pleasure from your writings and conversation, have induced me to prefer offering to the Royal Society through your medium, this Paper on Life Contingencies, which forms part of a continuation of my original paper on the same subject, published among the valuable papers of the Society, as by passing through your hands it may receive the advantage of your judgment.
Book
Finite Markov chains
John G. Kemeny,J. Laurie Snell +1 more
TL;DR: This lecture reviews the theory of Markov chains and introduces some of the high quality routines for working with Markov Chains available in QuantEcon.jl.
Journal ArticleDOI
Epidemiologic assessment of chronic atrial fibrillation and risk of stroke: The Framingham Study
TL;DR: Controlled trials of anticoagulants or antiarrhythmic agents in persons with chronic AF may demonstrate if strokes can be prevented in this highly susceptible group.