BookDOI
Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: Modern econometric approaches
Haiyan Song,Stephen F. Witt +1 more
TLDR
In this paper, a tourism demand model based on the panel data approach is presented. And the authors evaluate the performance of different models and evaluate their performance in terms of forecasting accuracy.Abstract:
Preface. Introduction to Tourism Demand Analysis. Introduction. Determinants of tourism demand. Functional form and demand elasticities. Summary. Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling. Introduction. Traditional methodology of tourism demand modelling. Failure of the traditional approach to tourism demand modelling. General-to-Specific Modelling. Introduction. General-to-specific modelling. Tests of restrictions on regression parameters. Diagnostic checking. Model selection. Worked example. Cointegration. Spurious regression. The concept of cointegration. Test for order of integration. Test for Cointegration. Error Correction Model. Cointegration and error correction mechanism. Estimating the ECM. Worked example. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Cointegration. Introduction. Basics of VAR analysis. Impulse response analysis. Forecasting with VAR and error variance decomposition. Testing for Granger causality and exogeneity. An example of VAR modelling. VAR modelling and cointegration. Time Varying Parameter Modelling. Introduction. Are tourism demand elasticities constant over time? The TVP model and Kalman filter. A worked example. Summary and conclusions. Panel Data Analysis. Introduction. Model specification and estimation. An empirical study of a tourism demand model based on the panel data approach. Summary and conclusions. Evaluation of Forecasting Performance. Introduction. Measures of forecasting accuracy. Forecasting evaluation of different models. Concluding remarks. References. Author index. Subject index.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
To Explain or to Predict
TL;DR: The distinction between explanatory and predictive models is discussed in this paper, and the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the model- ing process are discussed as well as a discussion of the differences that arise in the process of modeling for an explanatory ver- sus a predictive goal.
Journal ArticleDOI
To Explain or to Predict
TL;DR: The purpose of this article is to clarify the distinction between explanatory and predictive modeling, to discuss its sources, and to reveal the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the modeling process.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research
Haiyan Song,Gang Li +1 more
TL;DR: A review of the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 is presented in this article, where the authors identify some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting.
Journal ArticleDOI
To Explain or To Predict
TL;DR: The purpose of this article is to clarify the distinction between explanatory and predictive modeling, to discuss its sources, and to reveal the practical implications of the distinction to each step in the model- ing process.
Journal ArticleDOI
A model of tourism destination choice: a theoretical and empirical analysis.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a methodological framework within which the impact of characteristics of a tourism product on foreign travel can be captured and analyzed by combining the Lancasterian product characteristics approach with the Koppelman's consumer transportation model.
References
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Book
Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present alternative forecasting methods and evaluation of the tourism forecasting process, including basic extrapolative methods and decomposition, intermediate extrapolate methods, and an advanced extrapolate method.