Journal ArticleDOI
Using methods from machine learning to evaluate behavioral models of choice under risk and ambiguity
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The authors compare standard economic models to ML models in the domain of uncertainty and risk, and show that under risk, the ML methods outperform the conventional economic models in terms of expected utility with probability weighting.Abstract:
How can behavioral science incorporate tools from machine learning (ML)? We propose that ML models can be used as upper bounds for the “explainable” variance in a given data set and thus serve as upper bounds for the potential power of a theory. We demonstrate this method in the domain of uncertainty. We ask over 600 individuals to make a total of 6000 choices with randomized parameters and compare standard economic models to ML models. In the domain of risk, a version of expected utility that allows for non-linear probability weighting (as in cumulative prospect theory) and individual-level parameters performs as well out-of-sample as ML techniques. By contrast, in the domain of ambiguity, two of the most widely studied models (a linear version of maximin preferences and second order expected utility) fail to compete with the ML methods. We open the “black boxes” of the ML methods and show that under risk we “rediscover” expected utility with probability weighting. However, in the case of ambiguity the form of ambiguity aversion implied by our ML models suggests that there is gain from theoretical work on a portable model of ambiguity aversion. Our results highlight ways in which behavioral scientists can incorporate ML techniques in their daily practice to gain genuinely new insights.read more
Citations
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References
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Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso
TL;DR: A new method for estimation in linear models called the lasso, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to the sum of the absolute value of the coefficients being less than a constant, is proposed.
Book ChapterDOI
Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
Journal ArticleDOI
Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk
Daniel Kahneman,Amos Tversky +1 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent
TL;DR: In comparative timings, the new algorithms are considerably faster than competing methods and can handle large problems and can also deal efficiently with sparse features.
Journal ArticleDOI
Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: Cumulative prospect theory as discussed by the authors applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows different weighting functions for gains and for losses, and two principles, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, are invoked to explain the characteristic curvature of the value function and the weighting function.
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Using Methods from Machine Learning to Evaluate Behavioral Models of Choice Under Risk and Ambiguity
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