What is the predictability limit of midlatitude weather?
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The predictability limit of midlatitude weather is determined by the intrinsic constraints on forecasting accuracy. Research utilizing numerical simulations with innovative convection representations found that perfecting initial conditions could potentially improve forecasts by 4-5 days, achieved with a 90% reduction in initial condition uncertainty. This reduction leads to a shift in error growth mechanisms from rotationally driven to latent heat release dominated growth, impacting both physical processes and spatial scales. The study confirms that planetary-scale predictability is inherently restricted by rapid error growth due to latent heat release in clouds, emphasizing the importance of advancements in atmospheric observation and simulation technology for future forecast enhancements .
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27 Mar 2022 | The predictability limit of midlatitude weather is around 4-5 days, achievable by reducing initial condition uncertainty by 90% due to latent heat release in convection and flow dynamics. |
| The predictability limit of midlatitude weather is around 4-5 days with potential improvement by perfecting initial conditions, transitioning to error growth dominated by latent heat release. | |
| The predictability limit of midlatitude weather was examined in a recent study by Zhang et al., addressing concerns raised by Žagar and Szunyogh regarding the study's findings. | |
149 Citations | The predictability limit of midlatitude weather, including winter storms and summer rainstorms, is crucial for numerical weather prediction but varies depending on the specific weather phenomena. |
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