Showing papers on "Commodity published in 1999"

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Abstract: This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent `shape` to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

The Myth of Co-Moving Commodity Prices

Abstract: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of co-movement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of co-movement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behaviour by participants in world commodity markets.

The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

Abstract: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

Spatial price dynamics and integration in russian food markets

Abstract: This paper evaluates dynamic elements of spatial market linkages for several important food commodities in the Russian Federation. We argue that delivery lags and other impediments to regional commodity trade may delay price responses. Standard regression and cointegration tests that compare contemporaneous price linkages in a short-run setting may not be flexible enough to address integration in such a setting. As an alternative, we complement conventional time-series tests of spatial integration with an analysis of dynamic responses to price shocks. The results provide tempered support for spatial integration, especially in retail markets. However, the results suggest that, because of gradual adjustments to price shocks, integration may occur mainly in the long run.

Global Development Finance projects slow growth for 1999

Abstract: The growth prospects of developing countries have worsened over the past six months, world trade growth has slowed, capital flows are unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels in the near term, and, commodity prices are weak. This note reviews the reduced access to international capital flows by most emerging countries, as a result of the financial crises, while dollar export prices for developing countries fell eleven percent in 1998, with both primary commodities, and manufactures suffering. As a result, world trade fell one percent in current dollars in 1998, the first decline since 1993, while global trade volume in goods, grew only four to five percent in 1998, the slowest advance since 1992, barely half the performance in 1997. The note provides an outlook for developing regions, with expected differences in performance between regions, noting significant downside risks to even this somber outlook, and, predicts potential revival of protectionist sentiments in the United States, and Europe, should economic activity contract.

Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

Abstract: The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a "global food crisis," as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, "local food crisis," as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Investing in Research and Education versus Commodity Programs: Implications for Agricultural Productivity

Abstract: The long-term impact of research, education, and various government support programs on U.S. agricultural productivity was analyzed using an error correction model. Results indicate that the proposed reduction in commodity program expenditures (e.g. 1996 Farm Bill) is unlikely to reduce agricultural productivity. Results suggest that shifting public funds from commodity programs to education and research would raise U.S. agricultural productivity. Our estimates of long-term rates of return to public research are lower than those from most previous, perhaps due to our improved model specification, but are high enough to justify continued public investments to raise productivity.

Time series methods for forecasting electricity market pricing

Abstract: The objective of this work is to gain understanding of interactions between the predictability of electricity price under new market regulations and the engineering aspects of large scale electric power systems. There are numerous practical difficulties in allowing financial mechanisms to direct investments and operations for the generation and distribution of electricity. The electric commodity must be generated, distributed and consumed in real-time under strict physical laws and extremely high reliability requirements. This process is far more exacting and complex then the distribution of traditional commodities, such as oil or agricultural products. Clearly, assessing the effectiveness of deregulated markets is of extreme importance.

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Agriculture in China: Commodity Aspects

Abstract: This book analyzes commodity aspects of the effects of trade liberalization on agriculture in China. The study describes the effects of trade liberalization on selected commodities namely rice, wheat, maize, soybean, sweet potato, potato, other grains, pork, beef, mutton, poultry, egg, milk and fish at the national level and farm level. The analysis included ex-ante and ex-post welfare gain and loss at the national level and profitability at the farm level.

Agricultural markets from theory to practice : field experience in developing countries

Abstract: Preface List of Contributors Introduction: Visible Hands B. Harriss-White PART ONE: EXCHANGE Village Level Exchange: Lessons from South India W. Olsen Social Stratification and Exchange in West African Conditions: A Participatory Approach to the Classification of Producers and Net Consumers of Marketed Surplus B. Christiansen PART TWO: MARKETS AS SYSTEMS The Post Harvest System in Indonesia P. Magrath Researching the System in Bangladesh B. Crow Rapid Methods for Tracing Rapid Market Change: Urban Grain Supply Networks in Tanzania D. F. Bryceson PART THREE: PRICE PERFORMANCE AND MARKET EFFICIENCY Unstandardised Measures and the Analysis of Price Efficiency: An Application in Benin B. Christiansen The Use of Hedonic Price Analysis in Agricultural Research: Market Prices and the Quality Characteristics of Beans in Colombia L. Portugal and M. Oppen Large Databases: The Nineteenth-Century English Com Returns: ' Not Worth the Paper that they are Written On'? L. Adrian The Analysis of Integration: New Methodologies for Domestic Commodity Markets T. Palaskas Testing Market Integration: Some Critical Comments G. Jones PART FOUR: MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS, MARKETS AS INSTITUTIONS Power in Peasant Markets B. Harriss-White Gender, Markets and Fieldwork in Developing Countries: With Special Reference to West Africa E. Robson The Relevance of Religion and Culture to Commercial Accumulation: Fieldwork on Muslim Hausa Exchange and Agricultural Trade in Northern Nigeria P. Clough The Black Box of the State: Studying State Interventions in Food Markets J. Mooij Epilogue: Best and Worst Practice. Surprises and Lessons B Harriss-White Index

What is a Commodity? An Empirical Definition Using Time Series Econometrics

Abstract: One of the core premises of food and agribusiness marketing is that for effective promotion to take place a product should not be a commodity. Concepts such as niche marketing, product differentiation and market segmentation are all based on the creation of products which are not characterized as commodities. Government assistance- commodity programs-are justified on the basis that marketing based alternatives cannot improve profitability. While commodities are obviously very important, they are only vaguely defined. This paper develops an empirically testable definition of a commodity using frozen groundfish as an example.

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Agriculture in Malaysia: Commodity Aspects

Abstract: This book analyzes commodity aspects of the effects of trade liberalization on agriculture in Malaysia. The study describes the effects of trade liberalization on selected commodities namely palm oil, rice, and tobacco at the national level and farm level. The analysis included ex-ante and ex-post welfare gain and loss at the national level and profitability at the farm level.

Biodiversity as a Commodity

Abstract: What is the nature of biodiversity as an economic commodity and why does it matter? How would its conservation contribute economically to our well being? I consider three issues: Why is biodiversity important from an economic perspective? What kind of commodity is it? Does our usual economic mechanism, the market system, have the capacity to appreciate the economic value of biodiversity? I first characterize biodiversity from an economic perspective, and then consider the capacity of our main economic institutions to realize the value of biodiversity and ensure that it is treated in a way commensurate with its importance.

The economics of commodity markets

Abstract: Part 1 Terms of trade of primary products. Part 2 Commodity price instability. Part 3 Stabilization programmes. Part 4 Trade shocks. Part 5 Future markets. Part 6 Sectoral studies.

Notes on time use

Abstract: Robert A. Pollak is Hernreich Professor of Economics in the College of Arts and Sciences and the John M. Olin School, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri. Time-use data can be used to estimate both structural relationships, such as household technology, and behavioral relationships, such as the determinants of the allocation of time among activities. The implications of economics for collecting time-use data for estimation depend critically on the underlying theory. For economists, the starting point for theory is Gary S. Becker’s “household production” model, in which households are “assumed to combine time and market goods to produce more basic commodities that directly enter their utility functions.” Elaborating on this model, Robert T. Michael and Becker cite applications to such commodities as “‘good health,’ children, marriage, or ‘intercity visits’” and urge its application to “new variables . . . more global in nature than the goods and resources traditionally considered.” Examples of these more global variables include “children, prestige and esteem, health, altruism, envy, and pleasures of the senses.” The household production model is an application of the rational actor model: Bentham updated by Becker. Becker’s assumption that households “combine time and market goods to produce more basic commodities that directly enter their utility functions” appears to place restrictions on the constraints households face. But without specific assumptions about household technology, there are no restrictions: the conventional economic model in which market goods enter the utility function directly is a special case of the household production model in which the number of commodities is equal to the number of market goods and each market good corresponds to (“produces”) a single commodity. The power of the household production model to place restrictions on household behavior derives from specific assumptions about the technology households use to transform goods and time into commodities and about the relationship between the number of goods and the number of commodities—Becker insists that commodities “are much smaller in number than the goods consumed” and cites, with apparent approval, Bentham’s list of 15 fundamental sources of “pleasure and pain.”

Acceptance and ordering entrusted management system

Abstract: PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To obtain an acceptance and ordering entrusted management system which allow commodity manufactures or dealers themselves, etc, to deal with commodity orders from consumers and to quickly and also faultlessly perform inventory management and acceptance and ordering processing without spending excessive costs for installation and employment, etc SOLUTION: This acceptance and ordering entrusted management system 1 consists of a web server center 2 exchanging information about commodities with a consumer A through a web page opened on the Internet 5, a physical distribution system center 4 which stores and ships commodities and an information system center 3 which exchanges various pieces of information about commodities with the center 2 through a communication line 10, sends commodity shipping instruction to the center 4 through a communication line 11, also receives information about shipping situations and offers an assignor B information about a commodity through a communication line 12 and information about the consumer A

A Study of Survival: Commodity Trading Advisors, 1988–1996

Abstract: Since dissolving funds generally underperform surviving funds, the impact of survival bias on managed futures performance is of continued interest in the managed funds area. One aspect of interest is identifying whether there is a difference in the pre–dissolution performance of survivors and nonsurvivors. Results suggest a strategy of actively pruning underperforming managers may improve portfolio returns by eliminating managers who are at risk for dissolution.

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Agriculture in Pakistan: Commodity Aspects

Abstract: This book analyzes commodity aspects of the effects of trade liberalization on agriculture in Pakistan The study describes the effects of trade liberalization on selected commodities namely wheat, rice and maize at the national level and farm level The analysis included ex-ante and ex-post welfare gain and loss at the national level and profitability at the farm level

Purchase information supply system and recording medium

Abstract: PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To improve the commodity purchase processing efficiency. SOLUTION: The information on the commodities to be purchased, the dealers, etc., are registered in an HTML in an information supply server 12 included in an internet 11. Every client 13 refers to those information via a browser to decide its purchasing commodities. The server 12 contains a retrieval screen where the commodity purchasers can retrieve and extract their necessary information. Furthermore, the purchasers can refer to the inside or outside home page information of the internet 11 that is linked to a hyperlinked text by clicking this text included in a displayed home page.

Commodity terms of trade and individual countries' net barter terms of trade: Is there an empirical relationship?

Abstract: This paper examines the statistical relationship between aggregate commodity terms of trade and the net barter terms of trade of 66 non-oil developing countries. Stationarity of the estimated long-run equation is tested for each country using Engle–Granger ADF tests. Four different commodity terms of trade series are examined. For more than half the sample a stationary long-run relationship is detected. The responsiveness of the country terms of trade to the overall index varies considerably between countries. These findings suggest that the long-term trend in the overall terms of trade is still relevant to developing countries today. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Remark on the Number of Trading Posts in Strategic Market Games

Abstract: In market games the one to one correspondence between commodity types and trading posts would be justified if it were true that the set of equilibria is not affected by the number of trading posts postulated at the outset of the model. We show that this is not true. We develop an example which features equilibria where a commodity is simultaneously exchanged in two trading posts at different prices, i.e., equilibria where the 'law of one price' fails when the one to one correspondence between commodities and trading posts is abandoned. Thus, we conclude that the set of equilibria in market games depends non-trivially on the number of trading posts. This conclusion further suggests that an explanation of the structure of trading posts is necessary.

Techniques for trading commodities on a private trading system and not regulated by the government

Abstract: Techniques for assisted trading in a market for commodities include designating a non-trading central authority (110). The central authority screens entities to identify authorized traders (120). If agreement is subsequently indicated by input from each trader of at least two contracting traders among the authorized traders (132), then the central authority automatically constructs a standardized sales contract (136) for the commodity.

Commodity flow modeling

Abstract: The project reported on here was undertaken with the primary objective of creating a database of commodity flows into and out of the counties of Indiana and to allocate this commodity traffic to the transportation network of the state. Such a database was to form the foundation for a general transportation model for Indiana that would assist state decision-makers in evaluating the various alternatives for public investment in the transportation infrastructure of the state. The project had two phases. The first phase was completed in 1993. This paper covers the second phase of the project. The organization of this paper follows a classical transportation planning process. It begins with an identification of the study area and the existing transport network, or networks in the present case. This is followed by a discussion of the commodities examined and the commodity traffic generation for the counties of Indiana. The models developed for estimating the production and attraction of these commodity flows are also presented and discussed. Distribution of the traffic from origins to destinations is accomplished using a gravity-type of distribution model. This is followed by the use of a modal split procedure, which allocates traffic to specific modes of transport on the basis of historical (1993) patterns of mode use. The final component of this process is an assignment of the distributed traffic to links of the appropriate modal network. This process was undertaken here for nineteen groups of commodities that include the entire range of manufactured goods, coal, farm products, non-metallic minerals, and waste products. There is also some analysis of mail flows, although much of this is at a rudimentary level of analysis due to a lack of data on these flows. The end result of the above process is a database that can be used to estimate future flows on Indiana's rail and highway networks. This estimation of future commodity traffic flows was accomplished with traffic projections for 2005 and 2015.

Agricultural Price Risk Management: The Principles of Commodity Trading

Abstract: Agricultural Price Risk Management focuses on the principles of commodity trading, as well as the trading strategies used to manage agricultural price risk for both buyers and sellers. The book uses many Australian agricultural case studies, and examples in managing price risk are used to illustrate the principles.

Estimation of commodity inflows to a substate region: an input-output based approach

Abstract: A methodology to estimate current commodity inflows to a substate region using a variant of the standard regional input-output model and commodity flow data from the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey is presented. Existing data in the Commodity Flow Survey do not go below the state level, making the estimation of commodity flows to a particular substate region difficult. By combining state-level commodity flow data with a "supply-side," commodity-by-industry input-output model, an estimate of commodity flows to a region can be carried out based on the region's existing industrial structure. The information on current commodity inflows is particularly useful for analyzing the total potential demand that might be captured by a new mode or service. For example, one application could be estimating the potential for air cargo shipments to an area that is not currently served by local air cargo.