Showing papers on "Energy market published in 1983"

Energy Substitution in U.S. Manufacturing: A Regional Approach*

Abstract: One response of economists to energy-market developments of the 1970s was to launch a series of studies in which the objective was to estimate energy substitution parameters characterizing important sectors of the U.S. economy. Relatively high substitution elasticities between energy and other inputs would permit firms to mitigate the effects of energy price increases by shifting to less energy-intensive factor proportions. The seminal work in this effort was carried out by Berndt and Wood [5], Griffin and Gregory [14], Pindyck [28], Halvorsen [16], and Fuss [12].'The research was substantially abetted by developments in production theory, where the work of McFadden [23], Diewert [8], and Christensen, Jorgenson and Lau [6] yielded new and flexible production and cost function forms. Empirical work on energy substitution has continued.2 For the most part the data analyzed have been highly aggregative, applying to, say, total U.S. manufacturing, or perhaps to the various two-digit sectors comprising that total. To date little effort has been given to investigating energy-substitution relationships at the regional level in the U.S. This is unfortunate since we know that the U.S. economy is actually composed of regions which are differently endowed with resources, have developed at different rates, and are comprised of different sectoral mixes. The distinct possibility exists that regions differ in terms of the way in which energy inputs relate to other inputs in production. Furthermore, even though the energy "crisis" may seem to be a national phenomenon, national policy responses are worked out within a context of shifting and colliding regional conflicts, stemming in large part from real or imagined perceptions of how energy market developments impact different regions. It would seem especially important, therefore, to identify

Two Measures of Aggregate Energy Production Elasticities

Abstract: Comparison of the Btu and Divisia indexes of aggregate energy using US data on primary energy (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, coal, and hydro and nuclear electric) shows these two methods of aggregation yield quite different growth rates of aggregate energy, and therefore of the energy-output ratio, after 1973. The complexity of characterizing energy use from 1973 to 1978 adds another dimension to the problem of aggregate energy elasticity estimation, since this period had dramatic growth in the price of crude oil and a great change in the energy market in terms of the subsequent energy regulations and the distortions arising therefrom. 13 references, 1 table.

The International Energy Investment Dilemma

Abstract: The idea of a unified international energy market is dispelled, and the problems that exist in finding stable investors for the uncertain projects are approached. It is shown how the current contracting techniques are inappropriate for the emerging large-scale energy projects, and suggestions are made for new approaches that emphasize clauses for reviews, penalties, supply terms, inflation and oil price escalations, and currency; financing arrangements; government and international agency guarantees; and jurisdiction of national regulatory bodies. The efficiency of the world's human resources will be responsible for establishing investor confidence which will enable major financers to become involved in international energy megaprojects.

Estimation and projection of the demand for refined petroleum products in Iran

Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to construct an econometric model for estimation and projection of oil-refined products in Iran based on the situation of the Iranian energy market. Part 1 reviews the existing literature and contains the salient socio-economic futures of OPEC countries in general and of Iran in particular. Explanation of the structure of Iran's domestic energy market (demand, supply, and price) is the main purpose of this part. In Part 2, the demand function for each refined petroleum product is analyzed, formulated, and estimated. The price and income elasticities of the demands for gasoline, kerosene, gas oil and fuel oil are analyzed and compared with those of other countries. In Part 3, after analyzing and estimating the demand functions for total refined products, first, the full model, including all the estimated demand functions is dynamically simulated over the sample periods (1955-1978) in order to evaluate the performance power of the model, then the amount of consumption of each refined product for the next decade (1979-1988), under three scenarios of the rate of growth of real GNP, 9%, 7% and 5% is projected.

Energy Strategies and Nuclear Power

Abstract: The results of two quantitative scenarios balancing global energy supply with demand for the period 1980–2030 are reviewed briefly. The results suggest that during these 50 years there will be a persistent demand worldwide for liquid fuels, a continuing reliance on ever more expensive and “dirty” fossil fuels, and a limited penetration rate of nuclear generated electricity into the energy market. The paper therefore addresses a possible “second” grid driven by nuclear heat — a grid based not on electricity but on “clean” liquid fuels manufactured from gaseous and solid fossil fuels using nuclear power. Such a second grid would be an important complement to the electricity grid if the world is to progress towards a truly sustainable energy system after 2030.

Understanding natural gas price decontrol

Abstract: A variety of analyses concerning the natural gas market and the economy, and their reactions to change in gas prices, have been produced by government agencies, academic researchers, and consumer and industry groups. These analyses often display conflicting results because of their choices of perspective and assumptions. In response to a request from the House Subcommittee on Fossil and Synthetic Fuels, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prepared this background report, which provides a conceptual framework for understanding the energy market and economic effects of changes in natural gas pricing policy. This framework allows a comparison of the various analyses of price changes. The report makes no recommendations. 7 footnotes and references, 1 figure, 4 tables

Profit And The Pursuit Of Energy: Markets And Regulation

Abstract: With the energy market undergoing a profound transition, this book examines some of the risks and rewards, the incentives and disincentives at work shaping the search for and the production and utilization of oil and other energy sources. Some of the trade-offs, inequities, and bureaucratic insanities (and occasional inspirations) that drive and retard rational energy developments and energy transition are explored. In particular, concern is with trying to understand some of the factors shaping the evolving balance between market forces and government regulation. Unlike many who study the world energy market, the authors in this book do not emphasize the question of what constitutes the best guess on the future distribution of supply and demand for specific fuels for specific nations or regions. The collection tries to shift the focus away from crystal-ball gazing and, instead, explore how and why major public and private participants in the energy market make their choices about energy strategies. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 8 individual presentations.