Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1996"
TL;DR: Backcasting studies typically aim at providing policy makers and an interested general public with images of the future as a background for opinion forming and decisions as discussed by the authors. And if one is inclined to see teleology as a specific form of understanding, beside causality, then backcasting becomes interesting.
696 citations
TL;DR: The UK Technology Foresight Programme (UKFTP) as discussed by the authors is one of the most comprehensive national technology foresight programs in the UK, which has been running for over 20 years.
116 citations
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: A brief introduction of some of the methodologies for foresight in science and technology used in Germany can be found in this article, where an overview of the recent German experiences in technology foresight is provided, focusing on two methodologies including a German Delphi inquiry which is modeled like the Japanese Delphi inquiries and the relevance tree approach.
Abstract: Where are science and technology heading in the decades ahead? All leading industrial nations have been looking for plausible answers to this question. Government agencies and industry - particularly in Japan and the US - have been carrying out technological studies in recent years to gather facts and arguments for their research planning. This article gives a brief introduction of some of the methodologies for foresight in science and technology used in Germany. As Germany recently has started to work in this field on federal and state level, an overview of the recent German experiences in technology foresight will be provided, focusing on two methodologies including a German Delphi inquiry which is modeled like the Japanese Delphi inquiries and the relevance tree approach. The concluding chapter briefly discusses how these government activities may be and are now effectively used for different purposes.
94 citations
TL;DR: Futures study is not yet well established at the social level as discussed by the authors, and given the unstable conditions of the late 20th century, and the challenging outlook of the early 21st, this is a serious oversight.
85 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: Slaughter as mentioned in this paper draws on the relatively new but rapidly developing field of futures studies to illustrate how our thinking must change in order to deal with the challenges presented by the new millennium.
Abstract: In this book, Richard Slaughter draws on the relatively new but rapidly developing field of futures studies to illustrate how our thinking must change in order to deal with the challenges presented by the new millennium. In doing so he brings together the latest work from some of the leading international names in futures thinking. Part One considers the foundations of futures thinking in history, literature and ideas. Part Two explores some of the ways that futures studies have been and are being applied in different educational contexts around the world, from pre-school to postgraduate levels. Part Three takes the crucial step from institutional learning to social learning, and explores how futures provides us with insights which can help guide our society into the new millennium, together with suggestions for the development of the field itself. This book is essential reading for teachers, students and anyone interested in the perils and promise of the twenty-first century.
57 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that foresight is primarily grounded in human capacities and needs and that a more critical and egalitarian type of foresight needs to be pursued for cultural innovation beyond the industrial worldview.
50 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that far from being a monolithic entity driven by ‘Western’ interests, the knowledge base of futures studies is a dynamic process that will evolve over time and become less ‘ Western’ and more truly global.
48 citations
TL;DR: The authors make eight proposals designed to enhance Sociology as an action and policy science: (1) Replace postmodern beliefs with critical realism as a theory of knowledge, thereby avoiding the self-defeating consequences of extreme subjectivism and relativism.
Abstract: Drawing on futures studies for possible future directions of Sociology, I make eight proposals designed to enhance Sociology as an action and policy science: (1) Replace postmodern beliefs with critical realism as a theory of knowledge, thereby avoiding the self-defeatingconsequences of extreme subjectivism and relativism. (2) Since sound decision making invites knowing the probable future consequences of contemplated actions, give more attention to prediction and the study of self-altering prophecies. (3) Bring moral discourse back into Sociology-explicitly, rigorously, critically, and objectively- focusing on achieving freedom and well-being for human beings. Think (4) globally and (5) holistically, even when working locally. (6) Take the meaning of time seriously and explore the real, though sometimes hidden, alternative present possibilities for the not-yet-evidential future. (7) View people as active agents who strive to create the futures that they want. And (8) in definingsociety, emphasizeexpectation, choice, and decision as people, through historical actions, construct society by attempting to transform their images of desirable futures into social realities. THE RISE OF THE FUTURES MOVEMENT When James A. Mau and I edited The Sociology of the Future in 1971, we believed that futures studies would-and ought to-become an important part of the field of Sociology. We now know that did not happen. Nor did futures studies become an established university discipline in its own right, even though some other programs such as African-American, ethnic, and women's studies have found places in American higher education. True, some professors became at least parttime futurists and several hundred futures-oriented courses were created and taught (I began one at Yale in 1967), and a few futures studies programs were started. But for the most part, futures studies grew more off than on campus, and the established university disciplines, including Sociology, were largely unaffected.
40 citations
TL;DR: In this article, it is suggested that a valuable cross-fertilisation of ideas could thus occur between environmental educators and such futurists in the future workshop, and the authors suggest that such a cross fertilization of ideas can benefit both environmental education and future studies.
Abstract: SUMMARY One of the main concerns of environmental education is the need to create a more ecologically sustainable future, yet environmental educators often lack the expertise needed to explore alternative futures in this way However, there is much of value that can be learnt from futures studies and from the work of futurists In particular futures studies is interested in how people view the future and ways of cultivating clearer images of preferred futures One established strategy for this is the futures workshop and examples are given of work by Robert Jungk, Warren Ziegler and Elise Boulding in this field It is suggested that a valuable cross‐fertilisation of ideas could thus occur between environmental educators and such futurists
40 citations
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this paper, a critique of the minimal, or fleeting, present and some possibilities for extending what might be meant by the present is explored, and the authors suggest that considerable utility may be derived from a more careful and considered use of particular timeframes, and that questions of sustainability, the rights of future generations and the disciplined study of futures can be resolved without a number of innovations based on long-term thinking.
TL;DR: In this paper, a conceptual model of the foresight process is proposed, and some of the factors structuring success and failure in foresight are analysed, and the experiences with technology foresight in six countries are summarised.
Abstract: Technology foresight is a process for bringing together scientists, industrialists, government officials and others to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. The experiences with technology foresight in six countries are summarised. A conceptual model of the foresight process is proposed, and some of the factors structuring success and failure in foresight are analysed. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.
TL;DR: The use of the new paradigm of complexity for futures research has been discussed in this paper, where the main shortcomings derive from the superficial application of physical concepts to social sciences and the univocal theoretical approach to futures studies.
Dissertation•
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: In this paper, an evaluation of the Rhine Basin Study, conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), is used for a more general assessment of the limitations of the material flow studies.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to contribute to the discussion about linking society and nature in environmental research. It is an attempt to provide a critical analysis of the "Industrial Metabolism" studies, which have been based on a flow perspective and have argued that such a perspective is essential to the search for environmentally sustainable societal development paths and could serve as a basis for integration in environmental research. These studies can be considered a response to the problems encountered in emission estimations and environmental futures studies. An evaluation of the Rhine Basin Study, conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), is used for a more general assessment of the limitations of the material flow studies. The statistics are far from ideal for this type of study and the available information about emission sources is seldom sufficient for making generalizations. Therefore the results of the study must be regarded as preliminary. The Rhine Study is also limited in its effort to connect to broad social change related to economic and technological development and decision making. These limitations stem from the flow perspective and how it has been used as well as from the focus on single elements and the delimitation and treatment of the region. The time-geographical "process landscape", framework, developed by Torsten Hagerstrand, provides an alternative framework for the analysis of flows. It places emphasis on analysis of flows in their context in time and space as well as on the constraints of the flows and its institutional context. This may offer guidance for addressing the limitations of material-flow studies to evaluate the social development and to create a basis for analyzing development strategies. Flow based perspectives can be used to improve communication and integration between studies with different emphasis that increase our knowledge and understanding of relationships between society and nature in a changing world. But this potential can hardly be realized with only a conventional flow perspective, which often becomes too abstract and narrow and cannot be easily connected to the wider context of the flows. Therefore, additional perspectives must be used to handle the temporal and spatial aspects of the flows and their physical, economic, and social frameworks. (Less)
Book•
31 Dec 1996
TL;DR: Sperry's Views on Mind, Consciousness, and Human Values: A Challenge to the World Community by Theodore J. Voneida List of Contributors Environmental Issues and Future Studies Some Remarks on the Human and Planetary Condition by Jerome Karle The Impact and Promise of the Cognitive Revolution by Roger W. Sperry Futures Studies and Sustainable Community Development by Jim Dator UNESCO and Future-Oriented Studies by Albert Sasson New Framework of Community Economy Sustainability and a MuRatopian Economy by Kaoru Yamaguchi The Community Land Trust Model by Chuck
Abstract: Roger Sperry's Views on Mind, Consciousness, and Human Values: A Challenge to the World Community by Theodore J. Voneida List of Contributors Environmental Issues and Future Studies Some Remarks on the Human and Planetary Condition by Jerome Karle The Impact and Promise of the Cognitive Revolution by Roger W. Sperry Futures Studies and Sustainable Community Development by Jim Dator UNESCO and Future-Oriented Studies by Albert Sasson New Framework of Community Economy Sustainability and a MuRatopian Economy by Kaoru Yamaguchi The Community Land Trust Model by Chuck Matthei and Michael LaFontaine Cultural Paradigm Shift Towards Sustainability by Kazuo Mizuta Building Sustainable Communities Globally The Green Alternative: Towards a Future of Sustainable Communities in the USA by Brian Tokar Towards Global Sustainable Community: A View from Wisconsin by Belden Paulson Advanced MuRatopian Community Development in Japan by Hiroyuki Niwa Sustainable Philosophy for Global Community Development: A Korean Perspective by Yoon-Jae Chung The Development of Rural Communities in China under a Socialist Market Economy by Qin Linzheng The Operational Style of the Chinese Market Economy in the Twenty-First Century by Zhang Zerong New Centre of the Future Society: Prosperous Villages in India by Nandini Joshi Community Development and the Futures of Sustainable Communities in the Philippines by Cesar Villaneuva Micronesia Futures in Asia and the Pacific by Dirk A. Ballendorf Interconnecting Local Communities Globally: An Australian Perspective by Tony Stevenson, Ingrid Burkett, and San San Myint
21 Jun 1996
TL;DR: In this study the methods used for participative policy analyses in the field of science and technology policy in the Netherlands are evaluated and foresights are considered as a form of participatory policy analyses.
Abstract: In this study the methods used for participative policy analyses in the field of science and technology policy in the Netherlands are evaluated. It is necessary to know in what sense the field of science and technology policy differs from other policy fields. In this paper foresights are considered as a form of participatory policy analyses. The foresight process in Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom are described to give an idea of how the foresight process is dealt with in different countries. Then the paper elaborates on the application of the foresight process in the Netherlands, where the scenario approach is used as a support tool.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: A carefully crafted strategic foresight scenario (SFS) can provide stimulus to move from worrying about current problems to planning for the future as mentioned in this paper, and it can be used at the highest management levels of corporations to prepare for strategic planning.
Abstract: Most people need stimulus to move from worrying about current problems to planning for the future. A carefully crafted strategic foresight scenario (SFS) can provide that stimulus. Recently, Allen Memorial Hospital, a 240-bed facility in Waterloo, Iowa, set up a management development team to help prepare hospital staff for changes that were expected to result from a reengineering study. One of the techniques they chose was to create an SFS. Strategic foresight exercises are often used at the highest management levels of corporations to prepare for strategic planning. At Allen, the exercise was prepared for use at all levels of staff to prepare for imminent change. A good scenario can stimulate foresight; it can show how relevant driving forces may affect not only the industry but also your individual health system. It identifies specific forces affecting healthcare delivery systems, tests assumptions for the future, assesses alternative and plausible futures and can form a springboard for future planning. A group of six employees considered factors that would affect healthcare delivery in 2005, drew on their creative energies and wrote a scenario (which is included in the article). The scenario is carefully written and follows a story line that is personal and specific to Allen. When presented to a group of senior managers, it was received with great interest and prompted discussion that ran beyond the designated meeting time. The SFS exercise successfully prepared staff at Allen for change, not by predicting the future but by modeling and inspiring an open-mindedness and active approach to the future.
TL;DR: In this paper, a model is presented that provides a framework within which the requirements of the public and private sectors can be accommodated while still maintaining scientific excellence, impartiality and credibility and offering the opportunity to address public-good issues.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the relevance of futures studies for business has been examined in the context of post-modernism and the role of postmodernism in the development of business strategies.
TL;DR: This article makes the case for, and outlines the characteristics of, one kind of approach which was used in three recent futures studies.
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study of the multi-method and multi-discipline approach to anticipating the social and policy implications of new communication and information technologies (C&IT) being adopted by the Communication Centre at the Queensland University of Technology is presented.
Abstract: A case study is presented of the multi-method and multi-discipline approach to anticipating the social and policy implications of new communication and information technologies (C&IT) being adopted by the Communication Centre at the Queensland University of Technology. This work draws on frameworks which include action research, structurational approaches to technology, coevolutionary systems theory, information economics, feminist and poststructuralist theories, and civilisational and critical approaches to futures studies. The main theoretical perspectives and methodologies we draw on are outlined, together with some of our research findings. Some future scenarios for communication in Australia, beyond the technological optimism of the information superhighway rhetoric, are presented. The often paradoxical relationship between technological change and social change is recognised. We argue that rather than being driven by the entertainment or commercially-oriented applications of the ‘information superhi...
TL;DR: The influence of the 1993 White Paper on Science, Engineering, and Technology, the development of the recent technology foresight exercise, and the processes and outcomes of that exercise are reviewed in this article.
Abstract: The mechanisms that have been developed in recent years in the United Kingdom to encourage partnerships in research among government, industry, and the research community in universities and elsewhere are reviewed. The influence of the 1993 White Paper on Science, Engineering, and Technology, the development of the recent technology foresight exercise, and the processes and outcomes of that exercise are reviewed. The implications for the transport sector and the treatment of issues generic to several sectors are summarized. Some anomalies are noted in the development of the partnership theme, and questions are raised as to whether and how the cultural change desired by government is to be progressed further.
TL;DR: In this paper, an application of evolutionary futures research to the description of the transitional period of the highly developed industrial societies is presented, where a hypothesis of the knowledge-intensive society as a possible model of the future is presented.
Abstract: This article deals with an application of evolutionary futures research to the description of the transitional period of the highly developed industrial societies. A hypothesis of the knowledge‐intensive society as a possible model of the future is presented. Also some results of a survey using delphi and cross‐impact techniques when describing the future development of societal and educational variables are presented. The empirical results of the survey indicate that some features of the knowledge‐intensive society are well on their way to becoming reality in the future. Increasing demand for higher competence levels of people in work‐life, internationalization and more demanding qualifications in general are examples of these features.