Showing papers on "Natural experiment published in 2023"
13 citations
3 citations
TL;DR: Li et al. as discussed by the authors adopted a difference-in-differences-indifferences (DDD) method to investigate the impact of OANRA on enterprises' total factor productivity (TFP).
2 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors exploit the accelerated depreciation policy as a natural experiment, investigating the effect of tax incentives on corporate financialization, and find that the accelerated depreciated policy significantly reduces corporate financialisation.
2 citations
TL;DR: The authors assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants.
Abstract: How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? This paper assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants. The findings show negligible impacts on native voting behavior. The study then conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voter response. Even after receiving information about the pro-gram, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. This suggests that their indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. In contrast, the electoral indifference of natives may be explained by the fact that the program did not change labor and crime outcomes for native Colombians, and most migrants remained in the informal sector despite benefiting from the program through improvements in labor conditions and better access to public services.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the implementation effects of environmental pollution liability insurance (EPLI) on emission reduction by employing the method of time-varying difference-in-differences was analyzed.
2 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper used air quality monitoring and household micro-survey data in northern cities to investigate the impact of this policy on air pollution through the DID approach, which showed that the air quality index of the pilot cities has decreased by 12.3 units, which means that the clean heating policy has significantly reduced air pollution.
2 citations
2 citations
TL;DR: Li et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the causal effect of public participation represented by Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations (ENGOs) on regional carbon emissions and showed that public participation reduces regional carbon emission, which still holds after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests.
Abstract: Informal environmental regulation, represented by public participation, has an increasingly significant role in environmental governance. This paper utilizes panel data of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2017. It examines the difference-in-differences (DID) and instrumental variable method (IV) to investigate the causal effect of public participation represented by Environmental Non-Governmental Organizations(ENGOs) on regional carbon emissions. The empirical results show that public participation reduces regional carbon emissions, which still holds after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests. This paper proves an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between the intensity of public participation and regional carbon emissions. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that regional green technology innovation and strengthening formal environmental regulations are the primary mechanisms for public involvement in promoting regional carbon emission reduction. Finally, this paper discusses the heterogeneity governance effect among cities and finds that the governance effect of the sample is more pronounced in eastern cities, non-resource-based cities, large cities, and provincial capitals. The results reveal the importance of public participation in regional carbon emission reduction and provide an empirical basis for promoting informal environmental regulation.
2 citations
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TL;DR: The authors used a natural field experiment to examine the effectiveness of deterrence messages on tax compliance in the Dominican Republic and found that the largest firms, that pay 84% of all corporate income taxes and typically have been excluded from this type of intervention, are highly responsive to their information treatments.
04 Jan 2023
TL;DR: Natural experiments can sometimes offer unique opportunities for dealing with this dilemma, allowing causal inference on the basis of events that are not controlled by the researcher but that nevertheless establish random or as-if random assignment to treatment and control conditions as discussed by the authors .
Abstract: Causal inference is a central goal of science. Experiments are the preferred design for learning about causal effects, but experiments are often unethical or unfeasible. On the other hand, observational studies are usually feasible but lack the random assignment that renders experiments causally informative. Natural experiments can sometimes offer unique opportunities for dealing with this dilemma, allowing causal inference on the basis of events that are not controlled by the researcher but that nevertheless establish random or as-if random assignment to treatment and control conditions. Yet, psychological researchers are hardly aware of the concept of natural experiments and have therefore rarely exploited natural experiments so far. To remedy this shortage, we describe three main types of studies exploiting natural experiments (standard natural experiments, instrumental variable designs, and regression discontinuity designs) and provide examples from psychology and economics to illustrate how natural experiments can be harnessed. Natural experiments are challenging to find, provide information about only specific causal effects, and involve assumptions that are difficult to validate. Nevertheless, we believe that natural experiments provide valuable causal inference opportunities that have not yet been sufficiently exploited by psychologists.
TL;DR: This paper exploited the staggered adoption of anti-recharacterization laws across the U.S. states as quasi-natural experiments to study the role of creditor rights in affecting real earnings management.
TL;DR: Li et al. as discussed by the authors examined how the liberalization of stock markets affects the contractual usefulness of market information in executive compensation, as reflected in the pay-performance sensitivity, and found that stock market liberalization policy increases the pay for market-performance relationship but has no significant impact on pay-for-accounting performance relationship.
Abstract: Our study examines how the liberalization of stock markets affects the contractual usefulness of market information in executive compensation, as reflected in the pay-performance sensitivity. Using a quasi-natural experiment in China, we find that stock market liberalization policy increases the pay-for-market-performance relationship but has no significant impact on pay-for-accounting-performance relationship. Further analyses indicate that the influence of market liberalization on the CEO pay-for-market-performance relationship is restricted to firms with effective governance, a strong legal enforcement environment, operating in unregulated industries, and firms without major shareholders from state agencies. Finally, we find that such effects may be a result of higher price informativeness, shorter price delays and lower price mispricing following stock market liberalization.
02 Mar 2023
TL;DR: This article used two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process.
Abstract: Abstract We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors analyzed the effects of being exposed to a strong earthquake during school age on schooling outcomes and found that exposure to strong earthquakes reduces years of schooling by somewhat less than one year and negatively affects the probability of completing compulsory education but does not alter the chances of enrolling into post-compulsory education.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors construct a natural disaster risk index based on natural disaster keywords from news media that can reflect weather, crop diseases, epidemics, and other threats to agricultural prices in China.
TL;DR: Zhang et al. as mentioned in this paper assessed the impact of smart cities construction on urban entrepreneurial activity using the difference-in-difference (DID) model based on panel data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2019.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors study the impact of reforms that introduced more stringent, biometric ID requirements into India's largest social protection program, using large-scale randomized and natural experiments.
Abstract: Abstract We study the impact of reforms that introduced more stringent, biometric ID requirements into India's largest social protection program, using large-scale randomized and natural experiments. Corruption fell but with substantial costs to legitimate beneficiaries, 1.5-2 million of whom lost access to benefits at some point during the reforms. At the same time, adverse effects appear to have been driven primarily by decisions about the way the transition was managed, illustrating both the risks of rapid reforms, and how the impacts of promising new technologies can be highly sensitive to the protocols governing their use.
TL;DR: This paper used the difference-in-differences (DID) method to investigate the impact of strong financial regulation on corporate risk-taking via the issue of a capital control policy.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors compared the effect of a nudge on behavior (efficiency) and acceptability in a natural field experiment and found that participants with the default option set to zero sugars (Campus A) consumed less sugar than those having the default offer set to 3 sugars(Campus B), with no difference between Campus A (where the nudge was implemented) and Campus B (where a future nudge would be implemented).
Abstract: This paper aims to replicate the effect of a nudge on behavior (efficiency) and acceptability in a natural field experiment. The nudge in our study consists in setting zero sugars as the default level of sugar in hot drinks–vending machines in a French university. We compared Campus A (default option set to 0 sugars) to Campus B (default option set to 3 sugars). We measured the efficiency of this default option by observing the level of sugar actually chosen by the participants, and we measured acceptability through a questionnaire. We hypothesized a high level of efficiency for the nudge and a higher acceptability in Campus A (default option set to 0 sugars) compared to Campus B (default option set to 3 sugars). Our results show that participants with the default option set to zero sugars (Campus A) consumed less sugar than those with the default option set to 3 sugars (Campus B). We also found a high level of acceptability on both campuses, though with no difference between Campus A (where the nudge was implemented) and Campus B (where a future nudge would be implemented). The discussion addresses the applied perspectives and ethical implications of these results.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors exploit a natural experiment generated by the Wisconsin Supreme Court when it abolished Wisconsin's "Safer at Home" order on separation-of-powers grounds.
Abstract: The imposition and lifting of COVID-19 lockdown orders were among the most heatedly debated policies during the pandemic. Credible empirical evaluations of the effects of reopening policies are difficult because policymakers often explicitly linked sustained reductions in COVID-19 cases to the lifting of lockdown orders. This hardwired policy endogeneity creates challenges in isolating the causal effects of lifting of lockdown orders on social mobility and public health. To overcome simultaneity bias, we exploit a natural experiment generated by the Wisconsin Supreme Court when it abolished Wisconsin's "Safer at Home” order on separation-of-powers grounds. We capitalize on this sudden, dramatic, and largely unanticipated termination of a statewide lockdown order to estimate its effect—relative to a more gradual scaling back of restrictions—on social mobility and COVID-19 case growth. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph and a synthetic control design, we find that termination of COVID-related restrictions had small and short-lived negative impacts on social distancing. Then, using data on case and mortality rates, we find no evidence that the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision impacted COVID-19 growth up to a month following the repeal. These findings suggest that in the absence of carrying new information, sudden lockdown repeals may generate smaller behavioral responses than policymakers anticipate. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies published by Cornell Law School and Wiley Periodicals LLC.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors combine household data with the introduction of an increasing block tariffs (IBT) for residential electricity in three experimental regions of Russia to analyze the relationship between the IBT and the propensity of households to purchase dirty fuels.
Abstract: We combine panel household data with the introduction of an increasing block tariffs (IBT) for residential electricity in three experimental regions of Russia to analyze the relationship between the IBT and the propensity of households to purchase dirty fuels. Using a difference-in-differences empirical specification, we find that the propensity to purchase dirty fuels has increased in the regions where the IBT schemes were introduced. The size of the increase varies from 3.8 percentage points for the full sample of households to 13.4 percentage points when restricting the sample to households that do not have access to district heating networks.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors examined the impact of COVID-19 on SMEs' financing constraints and the moderating effect of fiscal and tax incentives using the difference-in-differences method (DID).
Abstract: Using data on Chinese GEM-listed companies from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2022, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on SMEs’ financing constraints and the moderating effect of fiscal and tax incentives using the difference-in-differences method (DID). The results indicate that the COVID-19 shock severely affected SMEs’ financing constraints, and this effect is more pronounced among firms in industries particularly sensitive to COVID-19, such as transportation, catering, accommodation, culture, and entertainment. A further analysis shows that tax incentives and fiscal subsidies have differing moderating effects, with the former alleviating SMEs’ financing constraints and the latter having only a relatively limited effect. This finding provides direct micro-level evidence for understanding the impact of COVID-19 on financing constraints and provides insights for promoting the optimization of fiscal support policies for SMEs.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors used a natural experiment of a new metro line in Hong Kong to examine trade-offs between transit-related and non-transit-related physical activity (PA) among 104 older people (aged ≥ 65 years).
Abstract: This study used a natural experiment of a new metro line in Hong Kong to examine trade-offs between transit-related and non-transit-related physical activity (PA) among 104 older people (aged ≥ 65 years) based on longitudinal accelerometer data that distinguished transit-related and non-transit-related PA. Difference-in-difference (DID) analysis compared PA changes between treatment and control groups. We found that new metro stations have trade-off effects between transit and non-transit PA. After opening metro stations, transit-related PA increased by 12 min per day on average, but non-transit-related PA decreased by 18 min per day. In addition, the proportion of time spent in transit-related PA increased by 6%. The results suggested that new metro stations could generate transit-related PA, but it might shift from non-transit-related PA among older people. Our findings revealed trade-off effects of public transit interventions and have significant implications for transport and healthy ageing studies.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors analyzed the impact of prorationing on natural gas production in the state of Oklahoma and found that the less affected companies had an important competitive advantage over the larger companies, and that the regulations can be interpreted as a form of rent-seeking.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors investigated the behavior of credit rating agencies (CRAs) using a natural experiment in monetary policy and found that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design.