Background: There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia.

Methods: Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis.

Results: Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18–40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80–3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70–2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32–2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10–1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54–0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52–0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle–income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle–income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle–income than in lower-middle– or low-income countries.

Conclusions: Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle–income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.

# Clinical Perspective {#article-title-38}

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Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults With Rheumatic Heart Disease From 14 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Two-Year Follow-Up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY Study).

From a global perspective, the large and diverse African population is disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease (CVD). The historical balance between communicable and noncommunicable pathways to CVD in different African regions is dependent on external factors over the life course and at a societal level. The future risk of noncommunicable forms of CVD (predominantly driven by increased rates of hypertension, smoking, and obesity) is a growing public health concern. The incidence of previously rare forms of CVD such as coronary artery disease will increase, in concert with historically prevalent forms of disease, such as rheumatic heart disease, that are yet to be optimally prevented or treated. The success of any strategies designed to reduce the evolving and increasing burden of CVD across the heterogeneous communities living on the African continent will be dependent upon accurate and up-to-date epidemiological data on the cardiovascular profile of every major populace and region. In this Review, we provide a contemporary picture of the epidemiology of CVD in Africa, highlight key regional discrepancies among populations, and emphasize what is currently known and, more importantly, what is still unknown about the CVD burden among the >1 billion people living on the continent.

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Cardiovascular disease in Africa: epidemiological profile and challenges

The Lancet NCDI Poverty Commission: bridging a gap in universal health coverage for the poorest billion

Rheumatic Heart Disease Worldwide: JACC Scientific Expert Panel

Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) poses a major disease burden among disadvantaged populations globally. It results from acute rheumatic fever (ARF), a complication of Group A Streptococcal (GAS) infection. These conditions are acknowledged as diseases of poverty, however the role of specific social and environmental factors in GAS infection and progression to ARF/RHD is not well understood. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the association between social determinants of health and GAS infection, ARF and RHD, and the effect of interventions targeting these. Methodology We conducted a systematic literature review using PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Embase. Observational and experimental studies that measured: crowding, dwelling characteristics, education, employment, income, nutrition, or socioeconomic status and the relationship with GAS infection, ARF or RHD were included. Findings for each factor were assessed against the Bradford Hill criteria for evidence of causation. Study quality was assessed using a standardised tool. Principle findings 1,164 publications were identified. 90 met inclusion criteria, comprising 91 individual studies. 49 (50.5%) were poor quality in relation to the specific study question. The proportion of studies reporting significant associations between socioeconomic determinants and risk of GAS infection was 57.1%, and with ARF/RHD was 50%. Crowding was the most assessed factor (14 studies with GAS infection, 36 studies with ARF/RHD) followed by socioeconomic status (6 and 36 respectively). The majority of studies assessing crowding, dwelling characteristics, education and employment status of parents or cases, and nutrition, reported a positive association with risk of GAS infection, ARF or RHD. Crowding and socioeconomic status satisfactorily met the criteria of a causal association. There was substantial heterogeneity across all key study aspects. Conclusion The extensive literature examining the role of social determinants in GAS infection, ARF and RHD risk lacks quality. Most were observational, not interventional. Crowding as a cause of GAS infection and ARF/RHD presents a practical target for prevention actions.

The role of social determinants of health in the risk and prevention of group A streptococcal infection, acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease: A systematic review

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain major causes of heart failure, stroke and death among African women and children, despite being preventable and imminently treatable. From 21 to 22 February 2015, the Social Cluster of the Africa Union Commission (AUC) hosted a consultation with RHD experts convened by the Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to develop a 'roadmap' of key actions that need to be taken by governments to eliminate ARF and eradicate RHD in Africa. Seven priority areas for action were adopted: (1) create prospective disease registers at sentinel sites in affected countries to measure disease burden and track progress towards the reduction of mortality by 25% by the year 2025, (2) ensure an adequate supply of high-quality benzathine penicillin for the primary and secondary prevention of ARF/RHD, (3) improve access to reproductive health services for women with RHD and other non-communicable diseases (NCD), (4) decentralise technical expertise and technology for diagnosing and managing ARF and RHD (including ultrasound of the heart), (5) establish national and regional centres of excellence for essential cardiac surgery for the treatment of affected patients and training of cardiovascular practitioners of the future, (6) initiate national multi-sectoral RHD programmes within NCD control programmes of affected countries, and (7) foster international partnerships with multinational organisations for resource mobilisation, monitoring and evaluation of the programme to end RHD in Africa. This Addis Ababa communique has since been endorsed by African Union heads of state, and plans are underway to implement the roadmap in order to end ARF and RHD in Africa in our lifetime.

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Azza Abul-Fadl

Papers

Seven key actions to eradicate rheumatic heart disease in Africa: the Addis Ababa communiqué.