Additional co-authors: TJ Heaton, AG Hogg, KA Hughen, KF Kaiser, B Kromer, SW Manning, RW Reimer, DA Richards, JR Southon, S Talamo, CSM Turney, J van der Plicht, CE Weyhenmeyer

/pdf/intcal13-and-marine13-radiocarbon-age-calibration-curves-0-4f3vsbzfqx.pdf

IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP

If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.

/pdf/bayesian-analysis-of-radiocarbon-dates-26ui63c9ae.pdf

Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon dates

The influence of diet on the distribution of nitrogen isotopes in animals was investigated by analyzing animals grown in the laboratory on diets of constant nitrogen isotopic composition. 
The isotopic composition of the nitrogen in an animal reflects the nitrogen isotopic composition of its diet. The δ^(15)N values of the whole bodies of animals are usually more positive than those of their diets. Different individuals of a species raised on the same diet can have significantly different δ^(15)N values. The variability of the relationship between the δ^(15)N values of animals and their diets is greater for different species raised on the same diet than for the same species raised on different diets. Different tissues of mice are also enriched in ^(15)N relative to the diet, with the difference between the δ^(15)N values of a tissue and the diet depending on both the kind of tissue and the diet involved. The δ^(15)N values of collagen and chitin, biochemical components that are often preserved in fossil animal remains, are also related to the δ^(15)N value of the diet. 
The dependence of the δ^(15)N values of whole animals and their tissues and biochemical components on the δ^(15)N value of diet indicates that the isotopic composition of animal nitrogen can be used to obtain information about an animal's diet if its potential food sources had different δ^(15)N values. The nitrogen isotopic method of dietary analysis probably can be used to estimate the relative use of legumes vs non-legumes or of aquatic vs terrestrial organisms as food sources for extant and fossil animals. However, the method probably will not be applicable in those modern ecosystems in which the use of chemical fertilizers has influenced the distribution of nitrogen isotopes in food sources. 
The isotopic method of dietary analysis was used to reconstruct changes in the diet of the human population that occupied the Tehuacan Valley of Mexico over a 7000 yr span. Variations in the δ^(15)C and δ^(15)N values of bone collagen suggest that C_4 and/or CAM plants (presumably mostly corn) and legumes (presumably mostly beans) were introduced into the diet much earlier than suggested by conventional archaeological analysis.

Influence of Diet On the Distribtion of Nitrogen Isotopes in Animals

A new calibration curve for the conversion of radiocarbon ages to calibrated (cal) ages has been constructed and internationally ratified to replace IntCal98, which extended from 0-24 cal kyr BP (Before Present, 0 cal BP = AD 1950). The new calibration data set for terrestrial samples extends from 0-26 cal kyr BP, but with much higher resolution beyond 11.4 cal kyr BP than IntCal98. Dendrochronologically-dated tree-ring samples cover the period from 0-12.4 cal kyr BP. Beyond the end of the tree rings, data from marine records (corals and foraminifera) are converted to the atmospheric equivalent with a site-specific marine reservoir correction to provide terrestrial calibration from 12.4-26.0 cal kyr BP. A substantial enhancement relative to IntCal98 is the introduction of a coherent statistical approach based on a random walk model, which takes into account the uncertainty in both the calendar age and the 14C age to calculate the underlying calibration curve (Buck and Blackwell, this issue). The tree-ring data sets, sources of uncertainty, and regional offsets are discussed here. The marine data sets and calibration curve for marine samples from the surface mixed layer (Marine04) are discussed in brief, but details are presented in Hughen et al. (this issue a). We do not make a recommendation for calibration beyond 26 cal kyr BP at this time; however, potential calibration data sets are compared in another paper (van der Plicht et al., this issue).

/pdf/intcal04-terrestrial-radiocarbon-age-calibration-0-26-cal-4fi3x62yke.pdf

IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP

Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

https://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/30981/1/intcal20_northern_hemisphere_radiocarbon_age_calibration_curve_055_cal_kbp.pdf

The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)

A new approach to dating a continuous sea-level record, using speleothem U–Th ages, shows that past variations in global ice volume occurred within centuries of polar climate change, with rates of sea-level rise reaching at least 1 metre per century.

http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/2012-Grant-et-al-nature11593.pdf

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years

The Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit (ORAU) has used an ultrafiltration protocol to further purify gelatin

from archaeological bone since 2000. In this paper, the methodology is described, and it is shown that, in many instances,

ultrafiltration successfully removes low molecular weight contaminants that less rigorous methods may not. These contaminants

can sometimes be of a different radiocarbon age and, unless removed, may produce erroneous determinations, particularly

when one is dating bones greater than 2 to 3 half-lives of 14C and the contaminants are of modern age. Results of the

redating of bone of Late Middle and Early Upper Paleolithic age from the British Isles and Europe suggest that we may need

to look again at the traditional chronology for these periods.

/pdf/ams-radiocarbon-dating-of-ancient-bone-using-ultrafiltration-1etxxmqhsz.pdf

Ams radiocarbon dating of ancient bone using ultrafiltration

Detailed sea-level records beyond ~150,000 years ago are limited. Here, the authors present a radiometrically constrained sea-level record from the Red Sea, spanning five glacial cycles and examine sea-level rise rates and the effects of past global ice-volume changes on monsoon intensity.

/pdf/sea-level-variability-over-five-glacial-cycles-5fiaea0fu1.pdf

Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles

This paper covers three different methods of matching radiocarbon dates to the ‘wiggles’ of the calibration curve in those situations where the age difference between the 14C dates is known. These methods are most often applied to tree-ring sequences. The simplest approach is to use a classical Chi-squared fit of the 14C data to the 14C curve. This gives the calendar date where the data fit best and allows tests of how good the fit is. The only drawback of this method is that it is difficult to ascertain the uncertainty in the date found in this way. An extension of this technique uses a Monte-Carlo simulation to sample possible 14C concentrations consistent with the measurement made and for each of these possibilities performs a Chi-squared fit. This method yields a distribution of values in the calendrical time-scale, from which the overall dating uncertainty can be derived. A third, rather different approach, based on Bayesian statistics, calculates the relative likelihood of each possible calendar year fit. This can then be used to calculate a range of most likely dates in a similar way to the probability method of 14C calibration. The theories underlying all three methods are discussed in this paper and a comparison made for the fitting of specific model sequences. All three methods are found to give consistent results and the application of any one of them depends on the nature of the scientific question being addressed.

/pdf/wiggle-matching-radiocarbon-dates-1r3m7syjfw.pdf

'Wiggle matching' radiocarbon dates

Radiocarbon dating has undergone a number of ‘revolutions’ in the past 50 years. This is in part because it is a field in continuous development, but perhaps more because of its profound impact on archaeology and the nature of interdisciplinary research. In order to understand the use of radiocarbon as a dating tool, it is necessary to understand the life cycle of radiocarbon, from its production in the upper atmosphere, through its sequestration in reservoirs and samples and its final decay. Different elements in this life cycle lead to complications, or subtleties that need to be understood if we wish to develop high-resolution chronologies. Most of the changes that have influenced radiocarbon dating are revolutions in understanding of the natural world in disparate academic disciplines. More than ever, it is necessary for users of radiocarbon to understand and engage with the science that underlies the method.

/pdf/radiocarbon-dating-revolutions-in-understanding-2gflyxs9c1.pdf

C. Bronk Ramsey

Papers

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years

Ams radiocarbon dating of ancient bone using ultrafiltration

Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles

'Wiggle matching' radiocarbon dates

Radiocarbon dating: revolutions in understanding