Data Mining Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques

We will review some of the major results in random graphs and some of the more challenging open problems. We will cover algorithmic and structural questions. We will touch on newer models, including those related to the WWW.

Random graphs

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

Praise for the Third Edition: "This is one of the best books available. Its excellent organizational structure allows quick reference to specific models and its clear presentation . . . solidifies the understanding of the concepts being presented."IIE Transactions on Operations EngineeringThoroughly revised and expanded to reflect the latest developments in the field, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, Fourth Edition continues to present the basic statistical principles that are necessary to analyze the probabilistic nature of queues. Rather than presenting a narrow focus on the subject, this update illustrates the wide-reaching, fundamental concepts in queueing theory and its applications to diverse areas such as computer science, engineering, business, and operations research.This update takes a numerical approach to understanding and making probable estimations relating to queues, with a comprehensive outline of simple and more advanced queueing models. Newly featured topics of the Fourth Edition include:Retrial queuesApproximations for queueing networksNumerical inversion of transformsDetermining the appropriate number of servers to balance quality and cost of serviceEach chapter provides a self-contained presentation of key concepts and formulae, allowing readers to work with each section independently, while a summary table at the end of the book outlines the types of queues that have been discussed and their results. In addition, two new appendices have been added, discussing transforms and generating functions as well as the fundamentals of differential and difference equations. New examples are now included along with problems that incorporate QtsPlus software, which is freely available via the book's related Web site.With its accessible style and wealth of real-world examples, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, Fourth Edition is an ideal book for courses on queueing theory at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners who analyze congestion in the fields of telecommunications, transportation, aviation, and management science.

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory

A systematic literature review of blockchain-based applications: Current status, classification and open issues

A Decentralized Denial of Service is an attack done by an agent capable to control the spread of a malware. This is a combination of epidemiological and conflictual aspects between several decision makers. There exists in the literature papers that study (non oriented) epidemics and papers that study network attacks regardless the epidemiological aspect. We put together the two aspects and provide a new game theoretical model which is part of the family of partially observable stochastic games (POSG) but with particular features. We prove the consistency of heuristic search value iteration (HSVI) based algorithms. Our framework is applied to optimally design a cyber deception technique based on honeypots in order to control an epidemic cyber-attack of a network by a strategic attacker. Some basic simulations are proposed to illustrate the framework described in this work-in-progress paper.

Partially Observable Stochastic Games for Cyber Deception Against Network Epidemic

Value methods for solving stochastic games with partial observability model the uncertainty about states of the game as a probability distribution over possible states. The dimension of this belief space is the number of states. For many practical problems, for example in security, there are exponentially many possible states which causes an insufficient scalability of algorithms for real-world problems. To this end, we propose an abstraction technique that addresses this issue of the curse of dimensionality by projecting high-dimensional beliefs to characteristic vectors of significantly lower dimension (e.g., marginal probabilities). Our two main contributions are (1) novel compact representation of the uncertainty in partially observable stochastic games and (2) novel algorithm based on this compact representation that is based on existing state-of-the-art algorithms for solving stochastic games with partial observability. Experimental evaluation confirms that the new algorithm over the compact representation dramatically increases the scalability compared to the state of the art.

/pdf/compact-representation-of-value-function-in-partially-32vgjsilld.pdf

Compact Representation of Value Function in Partially Observable Stochastic Games

Web-based advertising system has become a convenient and efficient channel for advertisers to deliver ads to targeted Internet users. Unfortunately, this system has been exploited by cybercriminals to disseminate malware to an enormous number of end-users and their vulnerable machines. To protect their malicious ads and malware from detection by the ad network, malvertisers apply a variety of evasion techniques such as fingerprinting the execution environment, redirecting to compromised IP addresses, and malware polymorphism. On the other hand, the ad network can also apply inspection techniques to spoil the malvertiser's tricks and expose the malware. However, both the malvertiser and the ad network are under the constraints of resource and time. In this paper, we aim to apply game theory to formulate the problem of inspecting the malware inserted by the malvertisers into the Web-based advertising system. We design a normal form game between the malvertiser and the ad network, define their strategies and payoff functions, and compute their pure-strategy and mixed-strategy Nash equilibria. We use numeric simulation to evaluate our game theoretic models, and derive several insights from the results that can serve as guidelines for the ad network to decide its best inspection strategy.1

A game theoretic approach for inspecting web-based malvertising

In this paper, we look at the use of hash-based, one-time signatures in the context of the Blockchain systems and demonstrate how the replacement of currently utilized schemes into a one-time signature can help deter double-spending. Towards this goal, we make the following contributions. 1) We introduce a notion of double- spending deterrence, a form of malleability that does not require pre-authorization from the signer to create a signature on an arbitrary message using two previously signed messages. It is used as a penalty to deter double-spending and disincentivize forgery. 2) We study features of various one-time signature schemes, and we demonstrate their effectiveness in thwarting double-spending. 3) We explore the design space of applying our methodology to the Blockchain system with a clear example and design options to deter double-spending. The results reported in this paper are promising, and open several new directions.

Countering Double-Spending in Next-Generation Blockchains

Cyber deception techniques are crucial to protect networks in battlefield settings and combat malicious cyber attacks. Cyber deception can effectively disrupt the surveillance process outcome of an adversary. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for cyber deception to protect important nodes and trap the adversary. We present a sequential approach of honeypot placement to defend and protect the network vital nodes. We formulate a stochastic game to study the dynamic interactions between the network administrator and the attacker. The defender makes strategic decisions about where to place honeypots to introduce new vulnerabilities to the network. The attacker's goal is to develop an attack strategy to compromise the nodes of the network by exploiting a set of known vulnerabilities. To consider a practical threat model, we assume that the attacker can only observe a noisy version of the network state. To this end, both players solve a partially observable stochastic game (POSG). Finally, we present a discussion on existing techniques to solve the formulated game and possible approaches to reduce the game complexity as part of our ongoing and future research.

https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3360774.3368204

Charles A. Kamhoua

Papers

Partially Observable Stochastic Games for Cyber Deception Against Network Epidemic

Compact Representation of Value Function in Partially Observable Stochastic Games

A game theoretic approach for inspecting web-based malvertising

Countering Double-Spending in Next-Generation Blockchains

A game-theoretic framework for dynamic cyber deception in internet of battlefield things