Objective: Funnel plots (plots of effect estimates against sample size) may be useful to detect bias in meta-analyses that were later contradicted by large trials. We examined whether a simple test of asymmetry of funnel plots predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared to large trials, and we assessed the prevalence of bias in published meta-analyses. Design: Medline search to identify pairs consisting of a meta-analysis and a single large trial (concordance of results was assumed if effects were in the same direction and the meta-analytic estimate was within 30% of the trial); analysis of funnel plots from 37 meta-analyses identified from a hand search of four leading general medicine journals 1993-6 and 38 meta-analyses from the second 1996 issue of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews . Main outcome measure: Degree of funnel plot asymmetry as measured by the intercept from regression of standard normal deviates against precision. Results: In the eight pairs of meta-analysis and large trial that were identified (five from cardiovascular medicine, one from diabetic medicine, one from geriatric medicine, one from perinatal medicine) there were four concordant and four discordant pairs. In all cases discordance was due to meta-analyses showing larger effects. Funnel plot asymmetry was present in three out of four discordant pairs but in none of concordant pairs. In 14 (38%) journal meta-analyses and 5 (13%) Cochrane reviews, funnel plot asymmetry indicated that there was bias. Conclusions: A simple analysis of funnel plots provides a useful test for the likely presence of bias in meta-analyses, but as the capacity to detect bias will be limited when meta-analyses are based on a limited number of small trials the results from such analyses should be treated with considerable caution. Key messages Systematic reviews of randomised trials are the best strategy for appraising evidence; however, the findings of some meta-analyses were later contradicted by large trials Funnel plots, plots of the trials9 effect estimates against sample size, are skewed and asymmetrical in the presence of publication bias and other biases Funnel plot asymmetry, measured by regression analysis, predicts discordance of results when meta-analyses are compared with single large trials Funnel plot asymmetry was found in 38% of meta-analyses published in leading general medicine journals and in 13% of reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews Critical examination of systematic reviews for publication and related biases should be considered a routine procedure

/pdf/bias-in-meta-analysis-detected-by-a-simple-graphical-test-5erh428s5c.pdf

Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test

Meta-Analysis in Clinical Trials*

Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease. Because high plasma concentrations of cholesterol, in particular those of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, are one of the principal risk factors for atherosclerosis,1 the process of atherogenesis has been considered by many to consist largely of the accumulation of lipids within the artery wall; however, it is much more than that. Despite changes in lifestyle and the use of new pharmacologic approaches to lower plasma cholesterol concentrations,2,3 cardiovascular disease continues to be the principal cause of death in the United States, Europe, and much of Asia.4,5 In fact, the lesions of atherosclerosis represent . . .

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJM199901143400207

Atherosclerosis — An Inflammatory Disease

The National High Blood Pressure Education Program presents the complete Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure. Like its predecessors, the purpose is to provide an evidence-based approach to the prevention and management of hypertension. The key messages of this report are these: in those older than age 50, systolic blood pressure (BP) of greater than 140 mm Hg is a more important cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor than diastolic BP; beginning at 115/75 mm Hg, CVD risk doubles for each increment of 20/10 mm Hg; those who are normotensive at 55 years of age will have a 90% lifetime risk of developing hypertension; prehypertensive individuals (systolic BP 120-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP 80-89 mm Hg) require health-promoting lifestyle modifications to prevent the progressive rise in blood pressure and CVD; for uncomplicated hypertension, thiazide diuretic should be used in drug treatment for most, either alone or combined with drugs from other classes; this report delineates specific high-risk conditions that are compelling indications for the use of other antihypertensive drug classes (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, beta-blockers, calcium channel blockers); two or more antihypertensive medications will be required to achieve goal BP (<140/90 mm Hg, or <130/80 mm Hg) for patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease; for patients whose BP is more than 20 mm Hg above the systolic BP goal or more than 10 mm Hg above the diastolic BP goal, initiation of therapy using two agents, one of which usually will be a thiazide diuretic, should be considered; regardless of therapy or care, hypertension will be controlled only if patients are motivated to stay on their treatment plan. Positive experiences, trust in the clinician, and empathy improve patient motivation and satisfaction. This report serves as a guide, and the committee continues to recognize that the responsible physician's judgment remains paramount.

Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure

Context Despite decades of accumulated observational evidence, the balance of risks and benefits for hormone use in healthy postmenopausal women remains uncertain Objective To assess the major health benefits and risks of the most commonly used combined hormone preparation in the United States Design Estrogen plus progestin component of the Women's Health Initiative, a randomized controlled primary prevention trial (planned duration, 85 years) in which 16608 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years with an intact uterus at baseline were recruited by 40 US clinical centers in 1993-1998 Interventions Participants received conjugated equine estrogens, 0625 mg/d, plus medroxyprogesterone acetate, 25 mg/d, in 1 tablet (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102) Main outcomes measures The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD) (nonfatal myocardial infarction and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome A global index summarizing the balance of risks and benefits included the 2 primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death due to other causes Results On May 31, 2002, after a mean of 52 years of follow-up, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping the trial of estrogen plus progestin vs placebo because the test statistic for invasive breast cancer exceeded the stopping boundary for this adverse effect and the global index statistic supported risks exceeding benefits This report includes data on the major clinical outcomes through April 30, 2002 Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) (nominal 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were as follows: CHD, 129 (102-163) with 286 cases; breast cancer, 126 (100-159) with 290 cases; stroke, 141 (107-185) with 212 cases; PE, 213 (139-325) with 101 cases; colorectal cancer, 063 (043-092) with 112 cases; endometrial cancer, 083 (047-147) with 47 cases; hip fracture, 066 (045-098) with 106 cases; and death due to other causes, 092 (074-114) with 331 cases Corresponding HRs (nominal 95% CIs) for composite outcomes were 122 (109-136) for total cardiovascular disease (arterial and venous disease), 103 (090-117) for total cancer, 076 (069-085) for combined fractures, 098 (082-118) for total mortality, and 115 (103-128) for the global index Absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years attributable to estrogen plus progestin were 7 more CHD events, 8 more strokes, 8 more PEs, and 8 more invasive breast cancers, while absolute risk reductions per 10 000 person-years were 6 fewer colorectal cancers and 5 fewer hip fractures The absolute excess risk of events included in the global index was 19 per 10 000 person-years Conclusions Overall health risks exceeded benefits from use of combined estrogen plus progestin for an average 52-year follow-up among healthy postmenopausal US women All-cause mortality was not affected during the trial The risk-benefit profile found in this trial is not consistent with the requirements for a viable intervention for primary prevention of chronic diseases, and the results indicate that this regimen should not be initiated or continued for primary prevention of CHD

/pdf/risks-and-benefits-of-estrogen-plus-progestin-in-healthy-4glim99n2t.pdf

Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: Principal results from the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial

The management of dyslipidemia after myocardial infarction (MI) is an important aspect of post-myocardial infarction care. However, acute changes in the lipid profile immedi- ately following myocardial infarction have resulted in uncertainty regarding the clinical utility of lipid levels assessed during hospitalization for MI. We studied the effect of the timing of plasma lipid assessment among 294 patients who presented with MI to determine whether the differences between the serum lipid values in-hospital when compared with post-discharge values (generally 2-3 months after MI) would have a substantial impact on the decision to initiate lipid-lowering therapy. We found that the mean total and LDL cholesterol levels were significantly lower in-hospital when compared with generally 2-3 months later. However, patients whose lipids were measured within 48 h of presentation did not have significantly different values compared with generally 2-3 months post-discharge. Moreover, despite slightly lower in-hospital levels, 83.7% of patients were above the National Cholesterol Education Pro- gram target LDL for secondary prevention and 57.6% met the criteria for drug therapy based on in-hospital assessment. Total and LDL cholesterol levels fall modestly after an acute MI; however, from a clinical perspective, in-hospital levels can be used to guide decisions regarding lipid-lowering therapy which can begin in the immediate post-MI setting. In-hospital levels approximate post-MI levels, particularly if drawn within 48 h of presentation. All patients with acute myocardial infarction should have complete lipid profiles measured prior to discharge.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1358836X9900400404

Clinical utility of lipid and lipoprotein levels during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction

Not surprisingly, the investigator in the biological sciences relishes the setting in which nature has provided a discrete, well-defined disease in which a single causative factor has been identified and for which a preventive or curative agent has become available. Coronary heart disease is not such an entity, which thereby complicates the design, execution, and interpretation of human clinical studies. The pathological and physiological aspects of coronary disease reflect this complexity. Although the atheroma in the arterial wall has been identified for over 100 years as the chief lesion, it is known that an altered coagulation state plays a variable primary or secondary role, with the interplay of thrombosis on the one hand and thrombolysis on the other. Further, the existence of primary and/or secondary coronary arterial spasm has become recognized as a significant element. Although none of these can be regarded as totally separate and

The latest report from Finland. A lesson in expectations.

Concerns about run-in periods in randomized trials.

OBJECTIVE
To assess whether tubal ligation and hysterectomy affect subsequent risk of ovarian cancer.


DESIGN
Prospective cohort study with 12 years of follow-up.


SETTING
United States, multistate.


PARTICIPANTS
A total of 121,700 female registered nurses who were 30 to 55 years of age in 1976; the follow-up rate was 90% as of 1988.


MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE
Ovarian cancer of epithelial origin confirmed by medical record review.


RESULTS
We observed a strong inverse association between tubal ligation and ovarian cancer, which persisted after adjustment for age, oral contraceptive use, parity, and other ovarian cancer risk factors (multivariate relative risk [RR], 0.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16 to 0.64). The association was similar when we assessed tubal ligation status at the baseline questionnaire and excluded cases in the first 4 years to eliminate any possible short-term decrease in risk due to screening of the ovaries during ligation surgery. We noted a weaker inverse association between simple hysterectomy and ovarian cancer (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.00). Neither vasectomy nor condom use by a partner was associated with risk of ovarian cancer.


CONCLUSIONS
These data indicate that tubal ligation, and perhaps hysterectomy, may substantially reduce risk of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Tubal Ligation, Hysterectomy, and Risk of Ovarian Cancer

Background. While some analytic studies have sug gested that individuals in occupations representing higher compared with lower socioeconomic status have a de creased risk of coronary heart disease, it is unclear whether occupation itself has an etiologic role in the development of coronary heart disease or whether differences in as yet un controlled coronary risk factors may account for these dif ferences in risk. Methods.— White collar vs blue-collar occupation and risk of coronary heart disease was evaluated among 230 male patients hospitalized for a first myocardial infarction and 222 control subjects of the same age, sex, and neigh borhood of residence. Information on coronary risk factors was obtained from home interviews, and blood specimens were drawn to test lipid and lipoprotein levels. Usual occu pation was dichotomized into white-collar and blue-collar occupation according to the Edwards' classification. Results. The relative risk of myocardial infarction of white-collar compared with blue-collar workers was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 1.19) after controlling for age, cigarette smoking, family history of premature myocar dial infarction, history of treatment for high blood pressure, body mass index, history of diabetes, alcohol consumption, type A personality, leisure-time physical activity, total calo ries, and percentage of calories consumed as saturated fat. However, there was no residual association after control for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol yielding a relative risk of 0.98 (95% confidence interval, 0.59 to 1.63). Conclusions. These results suggest that white-collar oc cupation per se does not appear to protect from coronary heart disease. Any apparent protective effect on myocardial infarction that has been previously observed in white-collar compared with blue-collar workers may be attributable to differences in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. (Arch Intern Med. 1992;152:2253-2257)

Charles H. Hennekens

Papers

Clinical utility of lipid and lipoprotein levels during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction

The latest report from Finland. A lesson in expectations.

Concerns about run-in periods in randomized trials.

Tubal Ligation, Hysterectomy, and Risk of Ovarian Cancer

Occupation and Risk of Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction