世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

Regulation of the fuel use per kilometer traveled is an inefficient means of regulating the overall CO2 emissions of passenger cars as part of a general climate protection policy in the European Union (EU). The paper measures the excess costs of fuel standards as compared to carbon taxes using an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model. The paper finds that welfare losses can be reduced to about one third by using fuel taxes instead of relative standards as the policy instrument for carbon abatement.

How to Regulate Co2-Emissions of Passenger Cars in Europe? An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

A sizable literature using multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models to analyze the life cycle carbon emissions (embodied carbon) associated with the consumption of goods has recently developed. One of the major policy positions advanced by the authors of these studies is the idea that countries could more effectively combat increases in foreign emissions (or carbon leakage) by implementing consumption-based climate policies. These policies would regulate emissions based on the embodied carbon of domestically consumed goods rather than regulating emissions from domestic production activities directly. This logic is based on the observation that imported goods would carry embodied carbon measures that include emissions generated in foreign production. Surprisingly, there has been no attempt to validate this claim by simulating the effects on the world economy of implementing such a policy. We use the GTAP 7.1 dataset and a multi-regional general equilibrium (MRGE) model to explore the effects of implementing one popular consumption-based proposal - imposing tariffs on imports proportional to the size of their embodied carbon. In scenarios where all OECD countries are assumed to impose tariffs on all non-OECD countries, we find that these carbon tariffs do reduce foreign emissions. However, the reduction in imports required to produce a given reduction in foreign emissions is typically quite large and, as a result, the global effciency cost of using carbon tariffs is quite high. The policies are undermined primarily by the ability of non-OECD exporters to find alternative markets for their carbon-intensive goods. Furthermore, we find that the costliness of these proposals has about as much to do with their effect on leakage as their ability to precisely target foreign emissions sources.

Using Embodied Carbon To Control Carbon Leakage

Um die Risiken des anthropogenen Klimawandels auf ein „tolerables“ Mas zu beschranken, muss laut viertem Sachbestandsbericht der Vereinten Nationen eine Trendwende zu global sinkenden Treibhausgasemissionen innerhalb der nachsten zwei Jahrzehnte erreicht und der CO2-Ausstos bis zur Mitte des 21. Jahrhunderts um mehr als 50 Prozent gegenuber dem Emissionsniveau von 2000 reduziert werden. Die Europaische Union sieht sich im Klimaschutz als Vorreiter, welcher den internationalen Verhandlungsprozess mit wirtschafts- und klimapolitisch wichtigen Industrie- sowie Schwellenlandern entscheidend vorantreiben mochte. Die Glaubwurdigkeit einer Vorreiterrolle wird in den nachsten Jahren davon abhangen, wie erfolgreich die Europaische Union ihre bisherigen Klimaschutzverpflichtungen mit marktwirtschaftlichen Instrumenten wie insbesondere dem innereuropaischen Emissionshandel erfullen wird. Vor diesem Hintergrund liefert der nachfolgende Artikel eine kritische Bestandsaufnahme der bisherigen EU-Klimapolitik und ihrer zukunftigen Perspektiven.

Europäische Klimapolitik: Zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

This report for the Swiss energy office examines, with the help of top-down and bottom-up models, the consequences for Switzerland of world oil prices remaining durably at 100 US$.

Auswirkungen langfristig hoher Ölpreise

Implementation of an EU-wide emissions trading system by means of National Allocation Plans is at the core of European environmental policy agenda. Member States are faced with the problem of allocating their national emission budgets under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement between energy-intensive sectors that are eligible for international emissions trading and the remaining segments of their economies that will be subject to complementary domestic emission regulation. The country-specific segmentation of national emission budgets between trading sectors and non-trading sectors will determine the cost efficiency of the EU emissions trading system and the gains for each Member State vis-?-vis domestic abatement policies. We present an interactive simulation model where users can specify the design of National Allocation Plans for each EU Member State and then evaluate the induced economic effects. Our numerical framework is based on marginal abatement cost curves for (emissions) trading and non-trading sectors of the EU-15 economies. Illustrative simulations highlight the importance of a coordinated design of National Allocation Plans in order to avoid substantial excess costs of regulation and drastic burden shifting between nontrading and trading sectors.

Christoph Böhringer

Papers

How to Regulate Co2-Emissions of Passenger Cars in Europe? An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Using Embodied Carbon To Control Carbon Leakage

Europäische Klimapolitik: Zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

Auswirkungen langfristig hoher Ölpreise

Assessing Emission Allocation in Europe: An Interactive Simulation Approach