世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective

▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal and the amendments of the Bonn climate policy conference in 2001 will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol in its original form. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that U.S. withdrawal together with the new provisions of Bonn are likely to reduce environmental effectiveness to zero. U.S. compliance under the new Bonn amendments would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at small compliance costs for OECD countries rising some hopes that the U.S. might rejoin the Kyoto Protocol during the next years.

/pdf/climate-politics-from-kyoto-to-bonn-from-little-to-nothing-13m2oaupn5.pdf

Climate Politics From Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?!?

In 2003 the Kyoto Protocol, which imposes legally binding greenhouse gas emission constraints on industrialized countries, is likely to enter into force. The Protocol has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection, but standard economic theory casts doubt that it will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper, we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol is consistent with the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties. JEL Classification: D58, Q43, Q58



Consequences economiques et environnementales du protocole de Kyoto En 2003, le protocole de Kyoto, qui impose aux pays industrialises l’obligation de reduire leurs emissions de gaz a effet de serre, entrera probablement en vigueur. Si le protocole a ete accueilli comme un grand pas en avant dans le combat pour proteger l’environnement, la theorie economique jette un regard sceptique sur la portee reelle d’un tel accord et le considere comme un geste symbolique. Dans ce memoire, on montre que la concretisation finale de l’accord de Kyoto s’arrime aux predictions theoriques : Kyoto n’est rien de plus que « business-as-usual » et n’impliquera pas de couts significatifs pour les parties qui ont signe le protocole.

Economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol

Political feasibility of emission trading systems may crucially depend on the free initial allocation of emission allowances to energy-intensive industries in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects. We investigate the potential trade-off between such compensation and economic efficiency for alternative allocation rules where emission allowances are based on either emissions or output. Based on analytical partial equilibrium and numerical general equilibrium analysis, we show that in open trading systems the trade-off becomes the more severe, the higher the international permit price is. Whenever the permit price can be considered exogenous to firms or industries, the output-based allocation rule is distinctly less costly than the emission-based rule to preserve output and employment in energy-intensive sectors. The reason is that emission-based allocation of allowances not only provides an implicit output subsidy but also lowers the effective price of emission inputs to regulated firms. Emissionbased allocation is particularly expensive towards higher international permit prices where the implicit subsidies to emission use in energy-intensive sectors produce drastic efficiency losses, since they imply high expenditures for carbon permit imports rather than high net revenues from efficient carbon permit exports.

/pdf/economic-implications-of-alternative-allocation-schemes-for-3uopx193f4.pdf

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances

Robust policies to mitigate carbon leakage

For reasons of political feasibility, emission trading systems may have to rely on free initial allocation of emission allowances in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects in dirty industries. Against the background of an emerging European-wide emission trading system, we examine the trade-off between such compensation and economic efficiency under output-based and emissions-based allocation rules. We show that the emissions-based allocation rule is more costly than the output-based rule in terms of maintaining output and employment in energy-intensive industries. When the international allowance price increases, the inferiority of emissions-based allocation vis-a-vis output-based allocation becomes more pronounced, as emission subsidies drastically restrict efficiency gains from international trade in emission allowances.

/pdf/economic-implications-of-alternative-allocation-schemes-for-1grc4wg1ur.pdf

Christoph Böhringer

Papers

Climate Politics From Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?!?

Economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances

Robust policies to mitigate carbon leakage

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances