Showing papers by "David Reiner published in 2008"

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

Abstract: China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions.

Regulating the geological sequestration of CO2.

Abstract: Governments worldwide should provide incentives for initial large-scale GS projects to help build the knowledge base for a mature, internationally harmonized GS regulatory framework. Health, safety, and environmental risks of these early projects can be managed through modifications of existing regulations in the EU, Australia, Canada, and the U.S. An institutional mechanism, such as the proposed Federal Carbon Sequestration Commission in the U.S., should gather data from these early projects and combine them with factors such as GS industrial organization and climate regime requirements to create an efficient and adaptive regulatory framework suited to large-scale deployment. Mechanisms to structure long-term liability and fund long-term postclosure care must be developed, most likely at the national level, to equitably balance the risks and benefits of this important climate change mitigation technology. We need to do this right. During the initial field experiences, a single major accident, resulting from inadequate regulatory oversight, anywhere in the world, could seriously endanger the future viability of GS. That, in turn, could make it next to impossible to achieve the needed dramatic global reductions in CO2 emissions over the next several decades. We also need to do it quickly. Emissions are going up, the climate is changing, and impacts are growing. The need for safe and effective CO2 capture with deep GS is urgent.

Current Legal and Institutional Frameworks for Investing in Lower Carbon Electricity in China

Abstract: The economic and policy framework for investment decisions in the power generation sector in China are investigated. Our analysis combines a review of the existing legal framework with a survey of stakeholders in industry and government. Based on interviews with over 60 stakeholders, we find a consistent picture emerges of the role of the major institutions and the decision criteria used in investment decisions for conventional thermal power technologies. In contrast, the evolving legal framework for investment in lower-carbon technologies, as reflected primarily in the renewable energy law, produces no clear consensus regarding decision criteria from either government or industry stakeholders. The overall objectives are widely acknowledged, but there is considerable disagreement amongst stakeholders over its implementation. From an investment analysis of risks versus returns, most respondents perceive advanced thermal power investments and small hydro as being more attractive than lower carbon alternatives such as wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV) power.

Énergie et changement climatique : La politique de l'Administration Bush et le débat public américain

Abstract: ResumeEn matiere de politique petroliere et de securite energetique, l’Administration Bush a montre une grande disposition a servir les interets industriels et regionaux, tout en s’appuyant sur une rhetorique de crise – crise energetique et crise de securite nationale. Le « plan Bush » sur l’energie, consistant a relâcher les contraintes sur la production interieure pour resoudre la crise energetique, a echoue politiquement. En matiere de changement climatique, la politique de l’Administration a ete dominee par la decision de ne pas signer le protocole de Kyoto et le choix de ne pas reglementer les emissions americaines de gaz a effet de serre. Cette politique a eu des consequences negatives tres importantes pour l’Administration Bush, tant en politique etrangere qu’en politique interieure. L’Administration a echoue a faire accepter son approche, centree exclusivement sur la recherche et le developpement de nouvelles technologies, comme une alternative credible a la reglementation des emissions.