This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.

Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment.

Formal analyses can be valuable aids to decision-making if their limits are understood. Those limits arise from the two forms of subjectivity found in all analyses: ethical judgments, made when setting the terms of an analysis, and scientific judgments, made when conducting it. As formal analysis has assumed a larger role in policy decisions, awareness of those judgments has grown, as have methods for making them. The present review traces these developments, using examples that illustrate the issues that arise when designing, executing, and interpreting analyses. It concludes with lessons learned from the science and practice of analysis. One common thread in these lessons is the importance of collaborative processes, whereby analysts and decision-makers educate one another about their respective needs and capabilities.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/350/6260/aaa6516.full.pdf

The realities of risk-cost-benefit analysis.

Because of the unavailability of off-site storage for spent power-reactor fuel, the NRC has allowed high-density storage of spent fuel in pools originally designed to hold much smaller inventories. As a result, virtually all U.S. spent-fuel pools have been re-racked to hold spent-fuel assemblies at densities that approach those in reactor cores. In order to prevent the spent fuel from going critical, the fuel assemblies are partitioned off from each other in metal boxes whose walls contain neutron-absorbing boron. It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a "dense-packed" pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel's volatile fission products, including 30-year half-life 137 Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contaminatio...

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Reducing the Hazards from Stored Spent Power-Reactor Fuel in the United States

Nucleation and Molecular clustering about ions

Maritime means of transportation have been heavily used for freight throughout recorded history. Although the importance of maritime transportation for passengers has decreased in recent decades as a result of developments in aviation, passengers still use cruises and ferries. However, the demands on maritime transportation for cargo increase daily, result in many accidents, and lead to considerable economic losses and tragic outcomes such as human casualty and environmental damage. These dangers have prompted research for qualifying or quantifying safety risks in ports or waterways. This paper examines the concept of risk analysis and its definition in different fields. Finally, much of the literature related to safety risks in the field of maritime transportation is reviewed. This review may serve as a guide for researchers in the field and government organizations, including regulatory agencies, coast guards, port and waterway stakeholders, and various industries and practitioners.

Safety Risk Analysis of Maritime Transportation

The issue of light-water reactor (LWR) safety has been the subject of a part-time, year-long study sponsored by the American Physical Society. The goal of the study was the assessment of some of the technical aspects of the safety of large light-water nuclear power reactors typical of present commercial practice in the Unted States. The report examines issues related to safe operation of LWRs; the research and development program responsible for establishing and enhancing safety; and the consequences of accidents for public health and welfare. The report in no way deals with the need for nuclear power or its benefits, and should not be considered as a net assessment of the risks versus the benefits of nuclear reactors. Since the risks of ecological impacts of other energy technologies are not addressed, no recommendations are made concerning the specific reactor program which should be followed in the immediate future. Among the areas covered in the report are primary pressure-vessel integrity; quality assurance; accident initiation from operator error, transients, and sabotage; the adequacy of present emergency core-cooling system designs; the calculation of long-term consequences to health of one particular low-probability accidental release of radioactivity; and the experimental and calculational (computer-code-development) aspects of the present reactor safety research program. A number of recommendations are contained with the report, mainly addressed to ways in which the safety of the present LWRs can be improved or better understood.

F. C. Finlayson

Papers

Report to the American Physical Society by the study group on light-water reactor safety