The goal of this piece is to survey the developing and rapidly growing literature on the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the governmental responses, and to synthetize the insights emerging from a very large number of studies. This survey: (i) provides an overview of the data sets and the techniques employed to measure social distancing and COVID-19 cases and deaths; (ii) reviews the literature on the determinants of compliance with and the effectiveness of social distancing; (iii) mentions the macroeconomic and financial impacts including the modelling of plausible mechanisms; (iv) summarizes the literature on the socioeconomic consequences of COVID-19, focusing on those aspects related to labor, health, gender, discrimination, and the environment; and (v) summarizes the literature on public policy responses.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/222316/1/GLO-DP-0601.pdf

A literature review of the economics of COVID-19

Chronic conditions and multimorbidity have become one of the main challenges in health care worldwide. However, data on the burden of multimorbidity are still scarce. The purpose of this study is to examine the association between multimorbidity and the health care utilization and costs in the Swiss community-dwelling population, taking into account several sociodemographic factors. The study population consists of 229'493 individuals aged 65 or older who were insured in 2013 by the Helsana Group, the leading health insurer in Switzerland, covering all 26 Swiss cantons. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more chronic conditions of a list of 22 conditions that were identified using an updated measure of the Pharmacy-based Cost Group model. The number of consultations (total and divided by primary care physicians and specialists), the number of different physicians contacted, the type of physician contact (face-to-face, phone, and home visits), the number of hospitalisations and the length of stay were assessed separately for the multimorbid and non-multimorbid sample. The costs (total and divided by inpatient and outpatient costs) covered by the compulsory health insurance were calculated for both samples. Multiple linear regression modelling was conducted to adjust for influencing factors: age, sex, linguistic region, purchasing power, insurance plan, and nursing dependency. Prevalence of multimorbidity was 76.6%. The mean number of consultations per year was 15.7 in the multimorbid compared to 4.4 in the non-multimorbid sample. Total costs were 5.5 times higher in multimorbid patients. Each additional chronic condition was associated with an increase of 3.2 consultations and increased costs of 33%. Strong positive associations with utilization and costs were also found for nursing dependency. Multimorbid patients were 5.6 times more likely to be hospitalised. Furthermore, results revealed a significant age-gender interaction and a socioeconomic gradient. Multimorbidity is associated with substantial higher health care utilization and costs in Switzerland. Quantified data on the current burden of multimorbidity are fundamental for the management of patients in health service delivery systems and for health care policy debates about resource allocation. Strategies for a better coordination of multimorbid patients are urgently needed.

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Multimorbidity, health care utilization and costs in an elderly community-dwelling population: a claims data based observational study

/pdf/the-lancet-commission-on-lessons-for-the-future-from-the-3b11rs1e.pdf

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic

http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673622015859/pdf

The scientific community has come together in an unprecedented effort to find a COVID-19 vaccine. However, the success of any vaccine depends on the share of the population that gets vaccinated. We design a survey experiment in which a nationally representative sample of 3,133 adults in the U.S. state their intentions to vaccinate themselves and their children for COVID-19. In the experiment, we account for uncertainty about the severity and infectiousness of COVID-19, as well as inconsistencies in risk communication from government authorities, by varying these factors across treatments. We find that 20% of people in the U.S. would decline the vaccine. General vaccine hesitancy (including not having had a flu shot in the last two years), distrust of vaccine safety, and vaccine novelty are among the most important deterrents to vaccination. Further, our results suggest that inconsistent risk messages from public health experts and elected officials reduce vaccine uptake. We use our survey results in an epidemiological model to explore conditions under which a vaccine could achieve herd immunity. We find that in a middle-of-the-road scenario with central estimates of model parameters, a vaccine will benefit public health by saving many lives but nevertheless may fail to achieve herd immunity.

Hesitancy Towards a COVID-19 Vaccine and Prospects for Herd Immunity

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/218965/1/1699979146.pdf

Prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The stalling of COVID-19 vaccination rates threatens public health. To increase vaccination rates, governments across the world are considering the use of monetary incentives. Here we present evide...

Monetary incentives increase COVID-19 vaccinations.

OBJECTIVE:To validate the estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity based on administrative hospital discharge data, with medical records and chart reviews as benchmarks.
DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study.
SETTING:Medical division of a tertiary care teaching hospital.
PARTICIPANTS:A total of 170 medical inpatients admitted from the emergency unit in January 2009.
MAIN MEASURES:The prevalence of multimorbidity for three different definitions (≥2 diagnoses, ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters, and ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo) and three different data sources (administrative data, chart reviews, and medical records).
RESULTS:The prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients derived from administrative data, chart reviews and medical records was very high and concurred for the different definitions of multimorbidity (≥2 diagnoses: 96.5%, 95.3%, and 92.9% [p = 0.32], ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters: 86.5%, 90.0%, and 85.9% [p = 0.46], and ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo: 48.2%, 50.0%, and 46.5% [p = 0.81]). The agreement of rating of multimorbidity for administrative data and chart reviews and administrative data and medical records was 94.1% and 93.0% (kappa statistics 0.47) for ≥2 diagnoses; 86.0% and 86.5% (kappa statistics 0.52) for ≥2 diagnoses from different ICD-10 chapters; and 82.9% and 85.3% (kappa statistics 0.69) for ≥2 medical conditions as defined by Charlson/Deyo.
CONCLUSION:Estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients based on administrative data, chart reviews and medical records were very high and congruent for the different definitions of multimorbidity. Agreement for rating multimorbidity based on the different data sources was moderate to good. Administrative hospital discharge data are a valid source for exploring the burden of multimorbidity in hospital settings.

https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/65768/1/Schneider_etal_prevalence_in_medical_inpatients_2012.pdf

Prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients.

Most models of ambiguity aversion satisfy the Anscombe–Aumann monotonicity axiom. Monotonicity implies a weak form of separability of preferences across events that occur with unknown probability. ...

/pdf/an-experimental-test-of-the-anscombe-aumann-monotonicity-32dynjx0v4.pdf

An Experimental Test of the Anscombe–Aumann Monotonicity Axiom

Socially responsible behavior is crucial for slowing the spread of infectious diseases. However, economic and epidemiological models of disease transmission abstract from prosocial motivations as a driver of behaviors that impact the health of others. In an incentivized study, we show that a large majority of people are very reluctant to put others at risk for their personal benefit. Moreover, this experimental measure of prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, measured in a separate and ostensibly unrelated study with the same people. Prosocial individuals are more likely to follow physical distancing guidelines, stay home when sick, and buy face masks. We also find that prosociality measured two years before the pandemic predicts health behaviors during the pandemic. Our findings indicate that prosociality is a stable, long-term predictor of policy-relevant behaviors, suggesting that the impact of policies on a population may depend on the degree of prosociality.

/pdf/prosociality-predicts-health-behaviors-during-the-covid-19-39q0qbhqgr.pdf

Florian Schneider

Papers

Prosociality predicts health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Monetary incentives increase COVID-19 vaccinations.

Prevalence of multimorbidity in medical inpatients.

An Experimental Test of the Anscombe–Aumann Monotonicity Axiom

Prosociality Predicts Health Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic