Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

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Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

The molecular basis of antigenic drift was determined for the hemagglutinin (HA) of human influenza A/H3N2 virus. From 1968 to 2003, antigenic change was caused mainly by single amino acid substitutions, which occurred at only seven positions in HA immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Most of these substitutions were involved in antigenic change more than once. Equivalent positions were responsible for the recent antigenic changes of influenza B and A/H1N1 viruses. Substitution of a single amino acid at one of these positions substantially changed the virus-specific antibody response in infected ferrets. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that govern influenza viruses.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/342/6161/976.full.pdf

Substitutions near the receptor binding site determine major antigenic change during influenza virus evolution.

Despite decades of surveillance and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, seasonal influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics around the world each year. The key process underlying these recurrent epidemics is the evolution of the viruses to escape the immunity that is induced by prior infection or vaccination. Although we are beginning to understand the processes that underlie the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses, the timing and nature of emergence of new virus strains remain mostly unpredictable. In this Review, we discuss recent advances in understanding the molecular determinants of influenza virus immune escape, sources of evolutionary selection pressure, population dynamics of influenza viruses and prospects for better influenza virus control.

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The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.

/pdf/global-circulation-patterns-of-seasonal-influenza-viruses-1wm1rxxyqv.pdf

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift.

H3N2 viruses continuously acquire mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein that abrogate binding of human antibodies. During the 2014–2015 influenza season, clade 3C.2a H3N2 viruses possessing a new predicted glycosylation site in antigenic site B of HA emerged, and these viruses remain prevalent today. The 2016–2017 seasonal influenza vaccine was updated to include a clade 3C.2a H3N2 strain; however, the egg-adapted version of this viral strain lacks the new putative glycosylation site. Here, we biochemically demonstrate that the HA antigenic site B of circulating clade 3C.2a viruses is glycosylated. We show that antibodies elicited in ferrets and humans exposed to the egg-adapted 2016–2017 H3N2 vaccine strain poorly neutralize a glycosylated clade 3C.2a H3N2 virus. Importantly, antibodies elicited in ferrets infected with the current circulating H3N2 viral strain (that possesses the glycosylation site) and humans vaccinated with baculovirus-expressed H3 antigens (that possess the glycosylation site motif) were able to efficiently recognize a glycosylated clade 3C.2a H3N2 virus. We propose that differences in glycosylation between H3N2 egg-adapted vaccines and circulating strains likely contributed to reduced vaccine effectiveness during the 2016–2017 influenza season. Furthermore, our data suggest that influenza virus antigens prepared via systems not reliant on egg adaptations are more likely to elicit protective antibody responses that are not affected by glycosylation of antigenic site B of H3N2 HA.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/114/47/12578.full.pdf

Contemporary H3N2 influenza viruses have a glycosylation site that alters binding of antibodies elicited by egg-adapted vaccine strains.

The currently available reverse-genetics systems for Influenza A virus are all based on transcription of genomic RNA by RNA polymerase I, but the species specificity of this polymerase is a disadvantage. A reverse-genetics vector containing a T7 RNA polymerase promoter, hepatitis delta virus ribozyme sequence and T7 RNA polymerase terminator sequence has been developed. To achieve optimal expression in minigenome assays, it was determined that viral RNA should be inserted in this vector in the negative-sense orientation with two additional G residues downstream of the T7 RNA polymerase promoter. It was also shown that expression of the minigenome was more efficient when a T7 RNA polymerase with a nuclear-localization signal was used. By using this reverse-genetics system, recombinant influenza virus A/PR/8/34 was produced more efficiently than by using a similar polymerase I-based reverse-genetics system. Furthermore, influenza virus A/NL/219/03 could be rescued from 293T, MDCK and QT6 cells. Thus, a reverse-genetics system for the rescue of Influenza A virus has been developed, which will be useful for fundamental research and vaccine seed strain production in a variety of cell lines.

Gaby Vervaet

Papers

Substitutions near the receptor binding site determine major antigenic change during influenza virus evolution.

A reverse-genetics system for Influenza A virus using T7 RNA polymerase.