Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Extinction risk from climate change

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species

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Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

Discerning Experts (Oppenheimer et al. 2019) is a meticulously researched study of the evolution of decision-makers’ commissioning assessments of various forms to inform their considerations of what they should or could do. It relies on carefully sculpted interviews as well as thorough historical analyses of three diverse case studies through 2014. This reliance on three ‘points of data’ may appear limiting, but the conclusions described here ring true to my ears—ears that have participated in many climate and environmental assessments over the past three decades. Put another way, Oppenheimer et al. (2019) have produced what is essentially an assessment of assessments, and so its syntheses of insights across the case-study chapters add new knowledge even while they validate old knowledge that had formerly been largely anecdotal for most of us. This volume is therefore essential reading for participants of any large environmental assessment. Past participants looking for a refresher course will see themselves in the pages, just like I did. Young scholars invited to participate in their first assessment will come to understand what will be expected of them. And readers of Climatic Changewill gain a glimpse of ‘how the sausage’ that they read about in these pages may have been made. My review will refer to other assessments and my own experiences. But, here is my lead.

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A review of Discerning Experts

Part 1 Basic concepts: basic problems of economic organization markets and government in a modern economy basic elements of supply and demand. Part 2 Microeconomics: supply, demand and product markets supply and demand in individual markets demand and consumer behaviour production and business organization analysis of costs supply and pricing in competitive markets marginal revenue and monopoly oligopoly and monopolistic competition uncertainty and games in economic behaviour. Part 3 Wages, rent and profits: the distribution of income incomes and the pricing factors of production wages and the labour market labour unions and collective bargaining land, natural resources and capital. Part 4 Efficiency, equity and government: markets and economic efficiency government and the economy government taxation and expenditure curbing market power - regulation and antitrust policies income distribution and the struggle against poverty the winds of change - the triumph of the market. Part 5 Fundamental concepts of macroeconomics: overview of macroeconomics measuring national output and income consumption and investment fundamentals of aggregate supply and demand the multiplier model money and commercial banking central banking and monetary policy. Part 6 Aggregate supply and macroeconomics policy: economic growth business cycles and unemployment the cost of inflation inflation and unemployment fiscal policy, deficits and the government debt issues in economic stabilization. Part 7 International trade and the world economy: international trade and the theory of comparative advantage protectionism and free trade the economics of developing countries exchange rates and the international financial system.

Study guide to accompany Samuelson-Nordhaus Economics

Comparisons of the relative economic efficacy of alternative regulatory strategies have been available for more than two decades (e.g. Poole, 1969; Weitzman, 1974; Laffont, 1977; Yohe, 1978). The results are well established in the economics literature, and their import has propagated into many subdisciplines — the economics of regulation (e.g. Karp and Yohe, 1977), international trade (Pelcovits, 1976; Stiglitz and Dasgupta, 1977), macroeconomic policy (Poole, 1969) and environmental and resource economics (Spence and Roberts, 1976; Yohe, 1979, 1992) to name a few. The results are, nonetheless, frequently misrepresented and misapplied even within those literatures; and so it is safe to say that the intuition that underlies their content is not thoroughly understood.

First principles and the economic comparison of regulatory alternatives in global change

The third edition continues to supply the building blocks of microeconomic analysis: a thorough treatment of optimization and equilibrium methods, coupled with numerous examples of their application.The third edition expands on the earlier editions in two ways. First, the coverage has been rewritten and rearranged. Second, chapters have been added on game theory, oligopoly, asset markets, and information economics. The new chapters fully update the text, highlighting significant developments of the last decade at a level that is accessible for first-year graduate students.

Exercises and Applications for Microeconomic Analysis

We are pleased that Fussel [2006] appreciates the reduced-form approach that we employed in our examination of the vulnerability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (the THC) to greenhouse-gas-induced increases in global-mean temperature and its sensitivity to a wide range of policy interventions in Yohe, et al. [2006], and we commend his careful and informed reading of our work. We hereby confirm his assumption that the underlying structure of the economic forcing and the characterization of the link between increased greenhouse-gas concentrations and changes in temperature is the same as the structure we employed in Yohe, et al. [2004]. 

We are, however, a little perplexed that he quibbles so vehemently about the quantitative results. The numbers that emerge from climate models, be they simple reduced-form representations of specific process like the one we used or complicated general circulation models of the sort Fussel sites as evidence, are never really to be taken as true representations of reality.

Gary W. Yohe

Papers

A review of Discerning Experts

Study guide to accompany Samuelson-Nordhaus Economics

First principles and the economic comparison of regulatory alternatives in global change

Exercises and Applications for Microeconomic Analysis

Response to the Comment by Hans-Martin Fussel