Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Extinction risk from climate change

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species

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Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

When I was first approached to write something for volume 100 about what we had learned since number 1 of volume 1 appeared in March of 1977, I thought that I might write something about progress in developing a common language—i.e., something about how members of the various research communities that have something to say about climate change had emerged from the “Canadian haze” of attempting to do interdisciplinary research by learning each others’ languages and respecting each others’ perspectives.1 I intended to quote the prescript from Malone and Yohe (1992) published in a rival (and much younger) journal. That paper reported on the topic of an international conference that we had hosted in Interlaken, Switzerland, the week after the Second World Climate Conference had completed its work in Geneva. We devoted the text of the paper to a discussion of a regional approach to assessment that could incorporate “diverse inputs from a wide range of disciplines and professions” (p. 101); but we began with a little preliminary story that highlights the prerequisite of communication in building such an assessment:

Thoughts on 100 volumes of Climatic Change

We offer results from an artificial simulation exercise that was designed to answer three fundamental questions that lie at the heart of anticipatory adaptation. First, how can confidence in projected vulnerabilities and impacts be greater than the confidence in attributing what has heretofore been observed? Second, are there characteristics of recent historical data series that do or do not portend our achieving high confidence in attribution to climate change in support of framing adaptation decisions sometime in an uncertain future? And finally, what can analysis of confidence in attribution tell us about ranges of “not-implausible” extreme futures vis a vis projections based at least implicitly on an assumption that the climate system is static? An extension of the IPCC method of assessing our confidence in attribution to anthropogenic sources of detected warming allows us to offer an answer to the first question. We can also identify characteristics that support an affirmative answer to the second. Finally, we offer some insight into the significance of our attribution methodology in informing attempts to frame considerations of potential extremes and how to respond.

/pdf/adaptation-in-an-uncertain-world-detection-and-attribution-4wrael473j.pdf

Adaptation in an Uncertain World—Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Trends and Extreme Possibilities

The effects of changes in expected near-term fossil fuel prices on long-term energy and carbon dioxide projections

Allison et al. (2014) is a provocative piece that highlights (1) the risks for ecosystems as the climate changes and (2) the tradeoffs that must be considered (i.e., the specific risks for one particular ecosystem against another) in the broader context of the global implications of (3) climate change and policy responses. In their abstract, they state that (selectively quoted with my emphasis in italics):

Some extending thoughts on “thinking globally and siting locally—renewable energy and biodiversity in a rapidly warming world”

We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are close related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants, and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the time and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduced infectious diseases, even if that is exacerbated by climate change.

Gary W. Yohe

Papers

Thoughts on 100 volumes of Climatic Change

Adaptation in an Uncertain World—Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Trends and Extreme Possibilities

The effects of changes in expected near-term fossil fuel prices on long-term energy and carbon dioxide projections

Some extending thoughts on “thinking globally and siting locally—renewable energy and biodiversity in a rapidly warming world”

Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis