Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Extinction risk from climate change

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

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The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 110 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 169 kilometers per decade These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species

/pdf/rapid-range-shifts-of-species-associated-with-high-levels-of-249w1ca3i9.pdf

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

New editorial structure, manuscript requirements, and publication times

I met three cats on my first day in Interlaken. To the first, I said 'Hello', but it ran off into the nearest bush. To the second, remembering that I was in Switzerland, I said Guten Tag and it marched right over to me for a minute of vigorous ear scratching. Encouraged by my success, I repeated Guten Tag to the third cat, only to be rebuffed by a haughty upward tilt of the head. I tried again, this time with a hesitant Bonjour and I was quickly rewarded by a quick and playful prance to my outstretched hand and several minutes of chasing leaves. When I wrote home to my family that night, I related the story in considerably more detail, and I wondered 'How do these Swiss cats communicate with one another?' How, indeed?

Towards a general method for analysing regional impacts of global change1

© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2015 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007a) focused their attention on adaptation and vulnerability in their contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. It made the case that contemplating adaptation to climate change should no longer be dismissed as evidence that society is giving up on trying to ameliorate the problem at its source (by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases of all sorts). Rather, the Working Group II report argued that adaptation must be included as an essential part of society’s portfolio of responses to growing risks arising from climate change. Reports on adaptation to climate change released by the National Research Council of the United States (NRC 2010a) under the rubric of ‘America’s Climate Choices’ adopted and reinforced this conclusion by, for example, recognising the evolving adaptation strategies of governments at all levels around the world. This is also true for the New York (City) Panel on Climate Change (NPCC 2010a, b) and the US National Climate Assessment. The latter contributed directly to President Obama’s Climate Action Plan (White House 2013) by speaking of the necessity, if not the means, of increasing ‘preparedness’. Indeed, in language that was unanimously approved by all of the nations who have signed the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (word by word), the nations of the world closed their ‘Summary for policymakers’ for the Fourth Assessment Report Synthesis document by emphasising the necessity that decisionmakers across the globe consider the concept of risk as their primary perspective in their international and national deliberations on responses to climate change. To be specific, they agreed that: ‘Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk’ (IPCC 2007b, p. 22, emphasis added). To be clear, national governments throughout the world have, by accepting this language, clearly stated their fundamental understanding of the urgency of responding with adaptation as well as mitigation and that managing risks associated with climate change must be the central theme in present and future planning and policy decisions concerning both. Moreover, they have identified critical criteria upon which they will weigh their options and they have recognised 3 Thoughts on the context of adaptation to climate change

Thoughts on the context of adaptation to climate change

The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability, or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations, such as evaluating climate policies, where generally agreed-upon probability distributions are not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. This broader risk management approach enables one to examine a range of possible outcomes and the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

Gary W. Yohe

Papers

New editorial structure, manuscript requirements, and publication times

Towards a general method for analysing regional impacts of global change1

Thoughts on the context of adaptation to climate change

Risk Management and Climate Change

More on the properties of a tax cum subsidy pollution control strategy