Showing papers by "Gerard J. Tellis published in 2010"
TL;DR: The authors found that advertising elasticity is invariant over the measure of the dependent variable or the method of estimation, and that advertising is lower in models that incorporate disaggregate data, advertising carryover, quality and promotion relative to those that do not.
Abstract: Research on over 400 estimates of advertising elasticity leads to the following important generalization. If advertising changes by 1%, sales or market share will change by about .1%. (That is, advertising elasticity is 0.1.). The advertising elasticity is higher in Europe relative to the US, for durables relative to non-durables, in early relative to late stages of the product life cycle, and in print over TV. The advertising elasticity is lower in models that incorporate disaggregate data, advertising carryover, quality, and promotion relative to those that do not. The advertising elasticity is lower in multiplicative models relative to other model forms, such as the additive model. The advertising elasticity is invariant over the measure of the dependent variable or the method of estimation.
69 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the extent and impact of three important response biases in cross-national research: socially desirable responding, yea-saying, and nay-Saying and found that negatively valenced items that show the least susceptibility to these response biases can help predict both actual penetration at the aggregate level as well as individual probabilities of adoption.
61 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that network effects warm a budding market and speed its takeoff, and they also show that the network effects play a major role in the takeoff and diffusion of a new product.
Abstract: Network Effects play a major role in the takeoff and diffusion of a new product. Some researchers claim that network effects chill a budding product. However, our research indicates that network effects warm a budding market and speed its takeoff.
13 citations
TL;DR: Goldenberg et al. as mentioned in this paper showed that network effects may slow the takeoff and growth in sales of a new product as adopters wait for sufficient others (threshold) to adopt.
12 citations
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TL;DR: This article examined the extent and impact of three important response tendencies: socially desirable responding, yea-saying, and nay-Saying, in cross-national research and found that negatively valenced items show the least susceptibility to these response tendencies, can help predict both actual penetration at the aggregate level as well as individual probabilities of adoption.
Abstract: Survey research is fraught with serious response tendencies. This study examines the extent and impact of three important response tendencies: socially desirable responding, yea-saying, and nay-saying, in cross-national research. From a survey of 5569 respondents across 15 countries, the study finds evidence of substantial differences across countries. Socially desirable responding is highest in Singapore and Italy, yea-saying is highest in Brazil and India, and nay-saying is highest in Netherlands and Japan. These response tendencies lead to erroneous conclusions about innovativeness based on surveys as compared to that based on market penetration of new products, over-reporting or under-reporting of innovative traits and over-reporting of adoption of new products. Overall, negatively valenced items show the least susceptibility to these response tendencies, can help predict both actual penetration at the aggregate level as well as individual probabilities of adoption, and should be included in cross-national surveys.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a new schema to address the limitations of the conventional disruptive technologies theory, which suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model.
Abstract: The failure of firms in the face of technological change has been a topic of intense research and debate, spawning the theory (among others) of disruptive technologies. However, the theory suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model. The authors develop a new schema to address these limitations. The schema generates seven hypotheses and a testable model relating to platform technologies. The authors test this model and hypotheses with data on 36 technologies from 7 markets. Contrary to extant theory, technologies that adopt a lower attack (“potentially disruptive technologies”) 1) are introduced as frequently by incumbents as by entrants, 2) are not cheaper than older technologies, and 3) rarely disrupt firms, and 4) both entrants and lower attacks significantly reduce the hazard of disruption. Moreover, technology disruption is not permanent due to multiple crossings in technology performance and numerous rival technologies co-existing without one disrupting the other. The proposed predictive model of disruption shows good out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The authors discuss the implications of these findings.
3 citations
15 Dec 2010
TL;DR: In this article, the authors briefly relate the concept of diffusion to the Bass diffusion model and the product life cycle, and examine the influences of the characteristics of the innovation, the characteristic of the adopters and firm strategy on innovation diffusion; and describe key research trends in the area of global diffusion.
Abstract: An innovation is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as being new by an individual or other unit of adoption. Diffusion refers to the spread of an innovation across social groups or markets over time. This article briefly relates the concept of diffusion to the Bass diffusion model and the product life cycle; examines the influences of the characteristics of the innovation, the characteristics of the adopters and firm strategy on innovation diffusion; and describes key research trends in the area of global diffusion.
Keywords:
diffusion of innovations;
innovation;
technology S-curves;
new products;
Bass model;
product life cycle;
global marketing
2 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors draw on several literatures to develop an integrated theory to explain the observed shape of the product life cycle (PLC) and present specific definitions and metrics for key events and stages of the PLC.
Abstract: The product life cycle (PLC) is a central, enduring framework in marketing. The four stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline are appealing intuitively and are supported empirically in recent research. Here, we draw on several literatures to develop an integrated theory to explain the observed shape of the PLC. We present specific definitions and metrics for key events and stages of the PLC. On the basis of these definitions and metrics, we present generalizable results for many characteristics of the PLC based on a sample of 30 consumer durables. Results include duration of stages, sales volume, sales growth, price reductions, and penetration. There is a dramatic increase in sales at the transition from the introduction stage to the growth stage, and a sudden change from sales growth to sales decline at the transition from the growth stage to the maturity stage. Overall, the PLC is a useful framework for understanding and anticipating the sales growth of new consumer durables.
Keywords:
diffusion of innovation;
sales takeoff;
Bass model;
new products;
informational cascades
1 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a new schema to address the limitations of the conventional disruptive technologies theory, which suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model.
Abstract: The failure of firms in the face of technological change has been a topic of intense research and debate, spawning the theory (among others) of disruptive technologies. However, the theory suffers from circular definitions, inadequate empirical evidence, and lack of a predictive model. The authors develop a new schema to address these limitations. The schema generates seven hypotheses and a testable model relating to platform technologies. The authors test this model and hypotheses with data on 36 technologies from 7 markets. Contrary to extant theory, technologies that adopt a lower attack (“potentially disruptive technologies”) 1) are introduced as frequently by incumbents as by entrants, 2) are not cheaper than older technologies, and 3) rarely disrupt firms, and 4) both entrants and lower attacks significantly reduce the hazard of disruption. Moreover, technology disruption is not permanent due to multiple crossings in technology performance and numerous rival technologies co-existing without one disrupting the other. The proposed predictive model of disruption shows good out-of-sample predictive accuracy. The authors discuss the implications of these findings.
1 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors test the validity of this premise in 19 high-tech markets including hardware, software, and services, and show that the network effects may enable inferior products to defend their entrenched positions even against higher quality alternatives.
Abstract: In recent years, with some early entrants to a market commanding huge market shares, critics have wondered whether the best quality products win in the market place. Early entrants can gain a position of wide-spread acceptance among users. The fact that a critical mass already uses the product might prompt new consumers to snowball onto this early choice leading to consumer lock-in. Many economists fear that such “network effects” may enable inferior products to defend their entrenched positions even against higher quality alternatives. This article tests the validity of this premise in 19 high-tech markets including hardware, software, and services.