Showing papers by "Guy F. Midgley published in 2016"

Ecological research and conservation management in the Cape Floristic Region between 1945 and 2015: History, current understanding and future challenges

Abstract: In 1945, the Royal Society of South Africa published a wide-ranging report, prepared by a committee led by Dr C.L. Wicht, dealing with the preservation of the globally unique and highly diverse vegetation of the south-western Cape. The publication of the Wicht Committee’s report signalled the initiation of a research programme aimed at understanding, and ultimately protecting, the unique and diverse ecosystems of the Cape Floristic Region. This programme has continued for over 70 years, and it constitutes the longest history of concerted scientific endeavour aimed at the conservation of an entire region and its constituent biota. This monograph has been prepared to mark the 70th anniversary of the Wicht Committee report. It provides a detailed overview of the circumstances that led up to the Wicht Committee’s report, and the historical context within which it was written. It traces the development of new and substantial scientific understanding over the past 70 years, particularly with regard to catchment...

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level.

Abstract: Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.

Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Abstract: Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence. Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment, were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Niches of Restionaceae Species in Jonkershoek, South Africa

Abstract: The Restionaceae species of the Fynbos biome is part of the Cape Floristic Kingdom is threatened by urbanization, agricultural expansion, groundwater extraction, and climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to assess and monitor the Restionaceae species under the impact of climate change. South Africa is a semi-arid environment, and hydrological factors are the main variables in the determination of species niches. This study investigates the microclimate at Jonkershoek, and examines the impact of climate change to the plant species distribution, thus creating shifts in the hydrological niche. This study generates its own unique microclimate hydrological datasets for modelling species niche. The Restionaceae species and their hydrological niche at the Jonkershoek study area are assessed under future climate change scenario, at a microclimatic level. It provided evidence regarding the importance of the study to understanding the climate change impacts on hydrological niche and on species richness.