Research efforts of the past fifty years have led to a development of linear integer programming as a mature discipline of mathematical optimization. Such a level of maturity has not been reached when one considers nonlinear systems subject to integrality requirements for the variables. This chapter is dedicated to this topic. The primary goal is a study of a simple version of general nonlinear integer problems, where all constraints are still linear. Our focus is on the computational complexity of the problem, which varies significantly with the type of nonlinear objective function in combination with the underlying combinatorial structure. Numerous boundary cases of complexity emerge, which sometimes surprisingly lead even to polynomial time algorithms.We also cover recent successful approaches for more general classes of problems. Though no positive theoretical efficiency results are available, nor are they likely to ever be available, these seem to be the currently most successful and interesting approaches for solving practical problems. It is our belief that the study of algorithms motivated by theoretical considerations and those motivated by our desire to solve practical instances should and do inform one another. So it is with this viewpoint that we present the subject, and it is in this direction that we hope to spark further research.

Nonlinear Integer Programming

Algebraic statistics advocates polynomial algebra as a tool for addressing problems in statistics and its applications. This connection is based on the fact that most statistical models are defined either parametrically or implicitly via polynomial equations. The idea is summarized by the phrase "Statistical models are semialgebraic sets". My tutorial will consist of a detailed study of two examples where the algebra/statistics connection has proven especially useful: in the study of phylogenetic models and in the analysis of contingency tables.

Algebraic Statistics

A thorough review has been performed on interpolation methods to fill gaps in time-series, efficiency criteria, and uncertainty quantifications. On one hand, there are numerous available methods: interpolation, regression, autoregressive, machine learning methods, etc. On the other hand, there are many methods and criteria to estimate efficiencies of these methods, but uncertainties on the interpolated values are rarely calculated. Furthermore, while they are estimated according to standard methods, the prediction uncertainty is not taken into account: a discussion is thus presented on the uncertainty estimation of interpolated/extrapolated data. Finally, some suggestions for further research and a new method are proposed.

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Interpolation in Time Series : An Introductive Overview of Existing Methods, Their Performance Criteria and Uncertainty Assessment

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Nonlinear Discrete Optimization

Optimum experimental designs

We study the problem of optimizing nonlinear objective functions over matroids presented by oracles or explicitly. Such functions can be interpreted as the balancing of multicriteria optimization. We provide a combinatorial polynomial time algorithm for arbitrary oracle-presented matroids, that makes repeated use of matroid intersection and an algebraic algorithm for vectorial matroids. Our work is partly motivated by applications to minimum-aberration model-fitting in experimental design in statistics, which we discuss and demonstrate in detail.

Nonlinear Matroid Optimization and Experimental Design

We study the problem of optimizing nonlinear objective functions over matroids presented by oracles or explicitly. Such functions can be interpreted as the balancing of multi-criteria optimization. We provide a combinatorial polynomial time algorithm for arbitrary oracle-presented matroids, that makes repeated use of matroid intersection, and an algebraic algorithm for vectorial matroids. 
Our work is partly motivated by applications to minimum-aberration model-fitting in experimental design in statistics, which we discuss and demonstrate in detail.

Computer simulators of real-world processes are often computationally expensive and require many inputs. The problem of the computational expense can be handled using emulation technology; however, highly multidimensional input spaces may require more simulator runs to train and validate the emulator. We aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by screening the simulators inputs for nonlinear effects on the output rather than distinguishing between negligible and active effects. Our proposed method is built upon the elementary effects (EE) method for screening and uses a threshold value to separate the inputs with linear and nonlinear effects. The technique is simple to implement and acts in a sequential way to keep the number of simulator runs down to a minimum, while identifying the inputs that have nonlinear effects. The algorithm is applied on a set of simulated examples and a rabies disease simulator where we observe run savings ranging between 28% and 63% compared with the batch EE method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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An Efficient Screening Method for Computer Experiments

Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximation. It is shown that automatic precalibration of this real-world microsimulator, using turn-count observational data, is possible, considering all parameters at once, and that this precalibrated microsimulator improves on the fit to observations compared with the traditional expertly tuned microsimulation.

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Bayesian Precalibration of a Large Stochastic Microsimulation Model

For a particular experimental design, there is interest in finding which polynomial models can be identified in the usual regression set up. The algebraic methods based on Grobner bases provide a systematic way of doing this. The algebraic method does not, in general, produce all estimable models but it can be shown that it yields models which have minimal average degree in a well-defined sense and in both a weighted and unweighted version. This provides an alternative measure to that based on “aberration” and moreover is applicable to any experimental design. A simple algorithm is given and bounds are derived for the criteria, which may be used to give asymptotic Nyquist-like estimability rates as model and sample sizes increase.

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Hugo Maruri-Aguilar

Papers

Nonlinear Matroid Optimization and Experimental Design

Nonlinear Matroid Optimization and Experimental Design

An Efficient Screening Method for Computer Experiments

Bayesian Precalibration of a Large Stochastic Microsimulation Model

Minimal average degree aberration and the state polytope for experimental designs