Showing papers by "Jacques Ferlay published in 2019"
International Agency for Research on Cancer1, University of Leicester2, Karolinska Institutet3, Cancer Institute of New South Wales4, Cancer Council Victoria5, Alberta Health Services6, St. John's University7, Nova Scotia Health Authority8, Cancer Care Ontario9, McGill University10, Public Health England11, Queen's University Belfast12, Cardiff University13, Canadian Partnership Against Cancer14, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust15, University of Oxford16, King's College London17
TL;DR: Progress in cancer control over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer, and the impact of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes.
Abstract: Summary Background Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends. Methods In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control. Findings In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995–2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010–14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer. Interpretation The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival. Funding Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.
555 citations
TL;DR: The expected increase in cancer incidence at older ages will have substantial economic and social impacts globally, posing considerable and unique challenge to healthcare systems in every world region, especially in those with limited resources and weaker health systems.
Abstract: Population ageing has substantially contributed to the rising number of new cancer cases worldwide. We document cancer incidence patterns in 2012 among older adults globally, and examine the changing magnitude of cancer in this age group over the next decades. Using GLOBOCAN 2012 data, we presented the number and proportion of new cancer cases, and the truncated age-standardised incidence rates among adults aged 65 years and older for all cancer sites combined and for the five most common cancer sites by world region. We calculated the incidence in 2035 by applying population projections, assuming no changes in rates. In 2012, 6.7 million new cancer cases (47.5% of all cancers) were diagnosed among older adults worldwide, with marked regional disparities. Nearly 48% of these cases occurred in less developed regions. Lung, colorectal, prostate, stomach and breast cancers represented 55% of the global incidence, yet distinct regional patterns were observed. We predict 14 million new cancer cases by 2035, representing almost 60% of the global cancer incidence. The largest relative increase in incidence is predicted in the Middle East and Northern Africa (+157%), and in China (+155%). Less developed regions will see an increase of new cases by 144%, compared to 54% in more developed regions. The expected increase in cancer incidence at older ages will have substantial economic and social impacts globally, posing considerable and unique challenge to healthcare systems in every world region, especially in those with limited resources and weaker health systems.
335 citations
TL;DR: A substantial increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years in some of the countries in this study is noted, and non-linear cohort effects were more pronounced for rectal than for colon cancer.
226 citations
TL;DR: The gap between low- and high-incident countries is closing due to increases in the former and stabilisation in the latter, and the gap is closing between higher- and lower-incidence regions.
112 citations
TL;DR: Strategic investments in chemotherapy service provision and cancer physicians are needed to meet the projected increased demand for chemotherapy in 2040, according to best-practice evidence-based guidelines.
Abstract: Summary Background The incidence of cancer (excluding non-melanomatous skin cancers) is projected to rise from 17·0 million to 26·0 million between 2018 and 2040. A large proportion of these patients would be likely to derive benefit from chemotherapy, but no studies so far have quantified current and projected global chemotherapy demands. We aimed to estimate changes in national, regional, and global demands for first-course chemotherapy and the cancer physician workforce between 2018 and 2040 if all patients were treated according to best-practice evidence-based guidelines. Methods Data for the incidence of 29 types of cancer in 183 countries in 2018, and projections of incidence in 2040, were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2018. Optimal chemotherapy utilisation from evidence-based guidelines was applied to these incidence data to generate the number of new patients requiring first-course chemotherapy in 2018 and 2040. We then estimated the corresponding cancer physician workforce required to deliver this chemotherapy (on the basis of physicians seeing 150 new patients requiring chemotherapy per year). We did sensitivity analyses to investigate how cancer stage at presentation affected chemotherapy demands. We also did sensitivity analyses to explore changes to workforce requirements if each physician was seeing 100 new patients requiring chemotherapy per year or 300 new patients requiring chemotherapy per year. Findings Between 2018 and 2040, the number of patients requiring first-course chemotherapy annually will increase from 9·8 million to 15·0 million, a relative increase of 53%. The estimated proportion of patients needing chemotherapy who reside in low-income or middle-income countries was 63% (6 162 240 of 9 782 783) in 2018, and will be 67% (10 071 049 of 14 984 560) in 2040. The most common indications for chemotherapy worldwide in 2040 will be lung cancer (accounting for 2 455 137 [16·4%] of 14 984 560 cases eligible for chemotherapy), breast cancer (1 898 740 [12·7%]), and colorectal cancer (1 678 153 [11·1%]). We estimated that, in 2018, 65 000 cancer physicians were required worldwide to deliver optimal chemotherapy—a figure that we estimate will rise to 100 000 by 2040 (with estimates ranging from from 50 000 to 150 000, depending on workload). Interpretation Strategic investments in chemotherapy service provision and cancer physicians are needed to meet the projected increased demand for chemotherapy in 2040. Funding None.
97 citations
TL;DR: The findings highlight the need for an urgent adaptation of healthcare systems across LAC by improving training in geriatrics for the oncology workforce, and by including older adults in clinical guidelines, insurance schemes, and cancer prevention policies.
12 citations
TL;DR: It is estimated that about one third of the total cases of SCCC occurring in Africa are HIV-related, with all but about 50 in sub Saharan Africa, and 55% in females.
10 citations