In 2007 African swine fever (ASF) arrived at a Black Sea harbour in Georgia and in 2014 the infection reached the European Union (EU), where it still expands its territory. ASF is a fatal viral disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boar of all ages with clinical presentations ranging from per-acute to chronic disease, including apparently asymptomatic courses. Until the detection of the first case inside the EU, infections in the current epidemic were mainly seen among pig farms with generally low biosecurity, and with incidental spill over to the wild boar population. In the EU, however, the infection survived locally in the wild boar population independently from outbreaks in domestic pigs, with a steady and low prevalence. Apart from the wild boar population and the habitat, the current epidemic recognizes humans as the main responsible for both long distance transmission and virus introduction in the domestic pig farms. This underlines the importance to include social science when planning ASF-prevention, −control, or -eradication measures. Based on experiences, knowledge and data gained from the current epidemic this review highlights some recent developments in the epidemiological understanding of ASF, especially concerning the role of wild boar and their habitats in ASF epidemiology. In this regard, the qualities of three epidemiological traits: contagiousity, tenacity, and case fatality rate, and their impact on ASF persistence and transmission are especially discussed.

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Epidemiological considerations on African swine fever in Europe 2014–2018

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors.

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Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal.

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute and often fatal disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boar, with severe economic consequences for affected countries. ASF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and the island of Sardinia, Italy. Since 2007, the virus emerged in the republic of Georgia, and since then spread throughout the Caucasus region and Russia. Outbreaks have also been reported in Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Moldova, Czech Republic, and Poland, threatening neighboring West European countries. The causative agent, the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is a large, enveloped, double-stranded DNA virus that enters the cell by macropinocytosis and a clathrin-dependent mechanism. African Swine Fever Virus is able to interfere with various cellular signaling pathways resulting in immunomodulation, thus making the development of an efficacious vaccine very challenging. Inactivated preparations of African Swine Fever Virus do not confer protection, and the role of antibodies in protection remains unclear. The use of live-attenuated vaccines, although rendering suitable levels of protection, presents difficulties due to safety and side effects in the vaccinated animals. Several African Swine Fever Virus proteins have been reported to induce neutralizing antibodies in immunized pigs, and vaccination strategies based on DNA vaccines and recombinant proteins have also been explored, however, without being very successful. The complexity of the virus particle and the ability of the virus to modulate host immune responses are most likely the reason for this failure. Furthermore, no permanent cell lines able to sustain productive virus infection by both virulent and naturally attenuated African Swine Fever Virus strains exist so far, thus impairing basic research and the commercial production of attenuated vaccine candidates.

African Swine Fever Virus Biology and Vaccine Approaches.

This report provides an update of the epidemiology of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union during the period November 2018 to October 2019. In this period, ASF has been confirmed in Slovakia, whereas Czechia became officially ASF‐free in March 2019, bringing the number of affected countries in the EU to nine. The report provides a narrative update of the situation in the different countries and an analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease. There has been no increase in the proportion of seropositive hunted wild boar in the affected areas. In hunted animals, the proportions of wild boar testing polymerase chain reaction‐positive and enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay‐positive has remained low (< 0.05). In addition to the obvious seasonal peak in summer in domestic pigs, seasonality of ASF in wild boar was statistically confirmed. A network analysis demonstrated that the median velocity of the natural propagation of the disease in wild boar populations was between 2.9 and 11.7 km/year. Human‐mediated spread, both in pigs and wild boar, however, remains important. Several wild boar‐ and domestic pig‐related risk factors for ASF occurrence in non‐commercial farms in Romania were identified with a case–control study. This report also updates an extensive literature review on control measures to stop the spread of the disease in wild boar and on measures to separate wild boar populations. Several new studies have been identified in this reporting period, but these did not alter the conclusions of the previous reporting period. Field experience with the use of fences as part of the control strategy deployed in the Belgian focal outbreak of ASF in wild boar is described. So far, the measures have proven effective to keep ASF virus inside the affected area. This strategy included a combination of different measures, namely zoning, carcass removal, a complete feeding ban, specific hunting regulations and depopulation actions depending on the zone, a partial ban of people and logging, and setting up a network of concentric fences.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (November 2017 until November 2018).

Scientific opinion on African swine fever

Across Europe, wild boar numbers increased in the 1960s-1970s but stabilised in the 1980s; recent evidence suggests that the numbers and impact of wild boar has grown steadily since the 1980s. As hunting is the main cause of mortality for this species, we reviewed wild boar hunting bags and hunter population trends in 18 European countries from 1982 to 2012. Hunting statistics and numbers of hunters were used as indicators of animal numbers and hunting pressure. The results confirmed that wild boar increased consistently throughout Europe, while the number of hunters remained relatively stable or declined in most countries. We conclude that recreational hunting is insufficient to limit wild boar population growth and that the relative impact of hunting on wild boar mortality had decreased. Other factors, such as mild winters, reforestation, intensification of crop production, supplementary feeding and compensatory population responses of wild boar to hunting pressure might also explain population growth. As populations continue to grow, more human-wild boar conflicts are expected unless this trend is reversed. New interdisciplinary approaches are urgently required to mitigate human-wild boar conflicts, which are otherwise destined to grow further.

Janis Ozoliņš

Papers

Wild boar populations up, numbers of hunters down? A review of trends and implications for Europe.