Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

Black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, increasing the buoyancy and vertical ascent of absorbing aerosol in the atmosphere. This self‐lofting process has been observed for individual plumes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere but here we show it occurring at broader scales through enhanced large‐scale ascent over BC‐rich regions. This is demonstrated in a pair of simulation using the UKESM1 Earth‐System model where BC aerosols were modeled either with or without the ability to absorb radiation. With absorption included the annual global mean concentration of BC in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (8–22 km) rose by up to 50% and the column loading over some remote oceanic regions more than doubled. The increase in aerosol height was particularly notable over the southeast Atlantic where biomass burning aerosol from Africa was elevated up to 1 km higher when their absorption was included. Similar effects were seen over the Arctic where the absorbing haze was transported in at higher levels and surface concentrations were halved. The absorption by BC also increased ascent over southern Asia, which tended to thicken the Asian brown cloud during the dry season but in the wet season enhancing ascent promoted deep convection and had the tendency to deplete the aerosol through wash‐out. We conclude that representing aerosol absorption accurately is important in simulating the vertical distribution, transport and abundance of aerosol in the Earth‐system that will affect their interactions with climate.

Assessing the Impact of Self‐Lofting on Increasing the Altitude of Black Carbon in a Global Climate Model

Abstract. The vast majority of reductions in aerosol emissions are projected to take place in the near future; however, associated impacts on the large-scale circulation over the populated Asian monsoon region remain uncertain. Using the state-of-the-art UK Earth System Model version 1 (UKESM1), this study examines the response of the South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon (SASM and EASM) to idealized reductions in anthropogenic emissions of carbonaceous aerosols and SO2. The analysis focuses on changes in the monsoon temporal extent and intensity of precipitation following decreases in either scattering (SCT), absorbing (ABS) aerosols, or decreases in both. For SCT, the combination of the early transition of land-sea thermal contrast and sea level pressure gradient during the pre-monsoon season together with the late transition in the post-monsoon season associated with the tropospheric warming, advances the monsoon onset but delays its withdrawal, which leads to an extension of the summer rainy season across South and East Asia. The northward shift of the upper-tropospheric Asian jet forced by the SCT reduction causes the anomalous convergence of tropospheric moisture and low-level ascent over northern India and eastern China. The intensification of the South Asian High (SAH) due to the warming over land also contributes to the dynamic instability over Asia. These changes enhance the rainy season of these regions in boreal summer. Reductions in absorbing aerosol act in the opposite sense, making the Asia's rainy season shorter and weaker due to the opposite impacts on land-sea contrast, Asian jet displacement and SAH intensity. With reductions in both SCT and ABS aerosol together the monsoon systems intensify, as the overall impact is dominated by aerosol scattering effects and results in the strengthening of monsoon precipitation and 850-hPa circulation. Although aerosol scattering and absorption play quite different roles in the radiation budget, their effects on the monsoon precipitation seem to add almost linearly. Specifically, the patterns of monsoon-related large-scale responses from reducing both SCT and ABS together are similar to the linear summation of separate effect of reducing SCT or ABS alone, despite of the inherent nonlinearity of the atmospheric systems. Our findings suggest that emission controls that target e.g. emissions of black carbon that warm the climate would have a different response to those that target overall aerosol emissions. 

Impacts of reducing scattering and absorbing aerosols on the temporal extent and intensity of South and East Asian summer monsoon

Absorbing aerosols exert a warming or a cooling effect on the Earth’s system, depending on the circumstances. The direct radiative effect (DRE) of absorbing aerosols is negative (cooling) at the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) over a dark surface like the ocean, as the aerosols increase the planetary albedo, but it is positive (warming) over bright backgrounds like clouds. Furthermore, radiation absorption by aerosols heat the atmosphere locally, and, through rapid adjustments of the atmospheric column and cloud dynamics, the net effect can be amplified considerably. We developed a technique to study the absorption of radiation of smoke over low lying clouds using satellite spectrometry. The TOA DRE of smoke over clouds is large and positive over the southeast Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa, which can be explained by the large decrease of reflected radiation by a polluted cloud, especially in the UV. However, general circulation models (GCMs) fail to reproduce these strong positive DRE, and in general GCMs disagree on the magnitude and even sign of the aerosol DRE in the southeast Atlantic region. Our satellite-derived DRE measurements show clear seasonal and inter-annual variations, consistent with other satellite measurements, which are not reproduced by GCMs. A comparison with model results showed discrepancies with the Angstrom exponent of the smoke aerosols, which is larger than assumed in simulations, and a sensitivity to emission scenarios. However, this was not enough to explain the discrepancies, and we suspect that the modeling of cloud distributions and microphysics will have the necessary larger impact on DRE that will explain the differences between observations and modeling.

Southeast Atlantic Ocean aerosol direct radiative effects over clouds: Comparison of observations and simulations

Biomass burning is the second largest global source of anthropogenic aerosols, and South America is one of the major source regions. In the dry season, the atmosphere of the Amazon basin features a remarkable haze, with layers containing high loadings of smoke. Aerosols with different degrees of ageing, are encountered in the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) was an intensive observation campaign in September-October 2012 that involved measurements of the Amazonian atmosphere using the Facility for Airborne Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 research aircraft.

Biomass burning aerosols in the amazon basin, characterised by lidar, optical particle counters, and modelling

During the 2010 eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull, improvements were made to the modelling procedure at the UK Met Office, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method and its rationale. To validate the ash concentration modelling procedure, predicted ash concentrations are compared against peak ash observations obtained from both ground based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations are found to lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. Significant improvements in the agreement between modelled and observed values are seen if a buffer zone accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g. the eruption height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and, in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source properties are found to have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

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Jim Haywood

Papers

Assessing the Impact of Self‐Lofting on Increasing the Altitude of Black Carbon in a Global Climate Model

Impacts of reducing scattering and absorbing aerosols on the temporal extent and intensity of South and East Asian summer monsoon

Southeast Atlantic Ocean aerosol direct radiative effects over clouds: Comparison of observations and simulations

Biomass burning aerosols in the amazon basin, characterised by lidar, optical particle counters, and modelling

A comparison of namemodel predictions and observations from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption