Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

In this article the principles of the field operation and manipulation (FOAM) C++ class library for continuum mechanics are outlined. Our intention is to make it as easy as possible to develop reliable and efficient computational continuum-mechanics codes: this is achieved by making the top-level syntax of the code as close as possible to conventional mathematical notation for tensors and partial differential equations. Object-orientation techniques enable the creation of data types that closely mimic those of continuum mechanics, and the operator overloading possible in C++ allows normal mathematical symbols to be used for the basic operations. As an example, the implementation of various types of turbulence modeling in a FOAM computational-fluid-dynamics code is discussed, and calculations performed on a standard test case, that of flow around a square prism, are presented. To demonstrate the flexibility of the FOAM library, codes for solving structures and magnetohydrodynamics are also presented with appropriate test case results given. © 1998 American Institute of Physics.

A tensorial approach to computational continuum mechanics using object-oriented techniques

This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

https://elib.dlr.de/53585/1/frt-75-jcomph-376-kl.pdf

Subgrid Scale Model for Finite Difference Simulations of Turbulent Flows in Plane Channels and Annuli

Turbulence in the convective boundary layer (CBL) uniformly heated from below and topped by a layer of uniformly stratified fluid is investigated for zero mean horizontal flow using large-eddy simulations (LES). The Rayleigh number is effectively infinite, the Froude number of the stable layer is 0.09 and the surface roughness height relative to the height of the convective layer is varied between 10−6 and 10−2. The LES uses a finite-difference method to integrate the three-dimensional grid-volume-averaged Navier–Stokes equations for a Boussinesq fluid. Subgrid-scale (SGS) fluxes are determined from algebraically approximated second-order closure (SOC) transport equations for which all essential coefficients are determined from the inertial-range theory. The surface boundary condition uses the Monin–Obukhov relationships. A radiation boundary condition at the top of the computational domain prevents spurious reflections of gravity waves. The simulation uses 160 × 160 × 48 grid cells. In the asymptotic state, the results in terms of vertical mean profiles of turbulence statistics generally agree very well with results available from laboratory and atmospheric field experiments. We found less agreement with respect to horizontal velocity fluctuations, pressure fluctuations and dissipation rates, which previous investigations tend to overestimate. Horizontal spectra exhibit an inertial subrange. The entrainment heat flux at the top of the CBL is carried by cold updraughts and warm downdraughts in the form of wisps at scales comparable with the height of the boundary layer. Plots of instantaneous flow fields show a spoke pattern in the lower quarter of the CBL which feeds large-scale updraughts penetrating into the stable layer aloft. The spoke pattern has also been found in a few previous investigations. Small-scale plumes near the surface and remote from strong updraughts do not merge together but decay while rising through large-scale downdraughts. The structure of updraughts and downdraughts is identified by three-dimensional correlation functions and conditionally averaged fields. The mean circulation extends vertically over the whole boundary layer. We find that updraughts are composed of quasi-steady large-scale plumes together with transient rising thermals which grow in size by lateral entrainment. The skewness of the vertical velocity fluctuations is generally positive but becomes negative in the lowest mesh cells when the dissipation rate exceeds the production rate due to buoyancy near the surface, as is the case for very rough surfaces. The LES results are used to determine the root-mean-square value of the surface friction velocity and the mean temperature difference between the surface and the mixed layer as a function of the roughness height. The results corroborate a simple model of the heat transfer in the surface layer.

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Coherent structure of the convective boundary layer derived from large-eddy simulations

https://elib.dlr.de/59672/1/scientdir.pdf

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

. The knowledge of the lightning-induced nitrogen oxides (LNOx) source is important for understanding and predicting the nitrogen oxides and ozone distributions in the troposphere and their trends, the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere, and the lifetime of trace gases destroyed by reactions with OH. This knowledge is further required for the assessment of other important NOx sources, in particular from aviation emissions, the stratosphere, and from surface sources, and for understanding the possible feedback between climate changes and lightning. This paper reviews more than 3 decades of research. The review includes laboratory studies as well as surface, airborne and satellite-based observations of lightning and of NOx and related species in the atmosphere. Relevant data available from measurements in regions with strong LNOx influence are identified, including recent observations at midlatitudes and over tropical continents where most lightning occurs. Various methods to model LNOx at cloud scales or globally are described. Previous estimates are re-evaluated using the global annual mean flash frequency of 44±5 s−1 reported from OTD satellite data. From the review, mainly of airborne measurements near thunderstorms and cloud-resolving models, we conclude that a "typical" thunderstorm flash produces 15 (2–40)×1025 NO molecules per flash, equivalent to 250 mol NOx or 3.5 kg of N mass per flash with uncertainty factor from 0.13 to 2.7. Mainly as a result of global model studies for various LNOx parameterisations tested with related observations, the best estimate of the annual global LNOx nitrogen mass source and its uncertainty range is (5±3) Tg a−1 in this study. In spite of a smaller global flash rate, the best estimate is essentially the same as in some earlier reviews, implying larger flash-specific NOx emissions. The paper estimates the LNOx accuracy required for various applications and lays out strategies for improving estimates in the future. An accuracy of about 1 Tg a−1 or 20%, as necessary in particular for understanding tropical tropospheric chemistry, is still a challenging goal.

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The global lightning-induced nitrogen oxides source

It is shown that certain existing phenomenological models of turbulence in terms of differential equations for the Reynolds stresses Rαβ=〈u′α u′β〉 do not guarantee realizable solutions. The known realizability conditions are Rαβ⩾0 for α=β and Rαβ2⩾Rαα Rββ for α≠β. A stronger requirement is that the matrix Rαβ be positive semi‐definite. This implies three conditions like non‐negative eigenvalues or non‐negative principal invariants. Conditions are given which must be satisfied by the model itself in order to guarantee realizable solutions for any realizable initial and boundary conditions. Some means are proposed which can be used to change the existing models into realizable ones.

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Ulrich Schumann

Papers

Subgrid Scale Model for Finite Difference Simulations of Turbulent Flows in Plane Channels and Annuli

Coherent structure of the convective boundary layer derived from large-eddy simulations

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

The global lightning-induced nitrogen oxides source

Realizability of Reynolds-Stress Turbulence Models