Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

/pdf/statistical-analysis-in-climate-research-51ik9f04rx.pdf

Statistical Analysis in Climate Research

Spatial climate data sets of 1971–2000 mean monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature were developed for the conterminous United States These 30-arcsec (∼800-m) grids are the official spatial climate data sets of the US Department of Agriculture The PRISM (Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model) interpolation method was used to develop data sets that reflected, as closely as possible, the current state of knowledge of spatial climate patterns in the United States PRISM calculates a climate–elevation regression for each digital elevation model (DEM) grid cell, and stations entering the regression are assigned weights based primarily on the physiographic similarity of the station to the grid cell Factors considered are location, elevation, coastal proximity, topographic facet orientation, vertical atmospheric layer, topographic position, and orographic effectiveness of the terrain Surface stations used in the analysis numbered nearly 13 000 for precipitation and 10 000 for temperature Station data were spatially quality controlled, and short-period-of-record averages adjusted to better reflect the 1971–2000 period

PRISM interpolation uncertainties were estimated with cross-validation (C-V) mean absolute error (MAE) and the 70% prediction interval of the climate–elevation regression function The two measures were not well correlated at the point level, but were similar when averaged over large regions The PRISM data set was compared with the WorldClim and Daymet spatial climate data sets The comparison demonstrated that using a relatively dense station data set and the physiographically sensitive PRISM interpolation process resulted in substantially improved climate grids over those of WorldClim and Daymet The improvement varied, however, depending on the complexity of the region Mountainous and coastal areas of the western United States, characterized by sparse data coverage, large elevation gradients, rain shadows, inversions, cold air drainage, and coastal effects, showed the greatest improvement The PRISM data set benefited from a peer review procedure that incorporated local knowledge and data into the development process Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States

Observational evidence is presented to show a teleconnection between the central Pacific and East Asia during the extreme phases of ENSO cycles. This Pacific‐East Asian teleconnection is confined to the lower troposphere. The key system that bridges the warm (cold) events in the eastern Pacific and the weak (strong) East Asian winter monsoons is an anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone (cyclone) located in the western North Pacific. The western North Pacific wind anomalies develop rapidly in late fall of the year when a strong warm or cold event matures. The anomalies persist until the following spring or early summer, causing anomalously wet (dry) conditions along the East Asian polar front stretching from southern China northeastward to the east of Japan (Kuroshio extension). Using atmospheric general circulation and intermediate models, the authors show that the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone results from a Rossby-wave response to suppressed convective heating, which is induced by both the in situ ocean surface cooling and the subsidence forced remotely by the central Pacific warming. The development of the anticyclone is nearly concurrent with the enhancement of the local sea surface cooling. Both the anticyclone and the cooling region propagate slowly eastward. The development and persistence of the teleconnection is primarily attributed to a positive thermodynamic feedback between the anticyclone and the sea surface cooling in the presence of mean northeasterly trades. The rapid establishment of the Philippine Sea wind and SST anomalies implies the occurrence of extratropical‐tropical interactions through cold surge‐induced exchanges of surface buoyancy flux. The central Pacific warming plays an essential role in the development of the western Pacific cooling and the wind anomalies by setting up a favorable environment for the anticyclone‐ SST interaction and midlatitude‐tropical interaction in the western North Pacific.

/pdf/pacific-east-asian-teleconnection-how-does-enso-affect-east-35mhh1itn6.pdf

Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?

A number of recent studies have reported an ENSO-like EOF mode in the global sea surface temperature (SST) field, whose time variability is marked by an abrupt change toward a warmer tropical eastern Pacific and a colder extratropical central North Pacific in 1976‐77. The present study compares this pattern with the structure of the interannual variability associated with the ENSO cycle and documents its time history back to 1900. The analysis is primarily based on the leading EOFs of the SST anomaly and ‘‘anomaly deviation’’ fields in various domains and the associated expansion coefficient (or principal component) time series, which are used to construct global regression maps of SST, sea level pressure (SLP), and a number of related variables. The use of ‘‘anomaly deviations’’ (i.e., departures of local SST anomalies from the concurrent global-mean SST anomaly) reduces the influence of global-mean SST trends upon the structure of the EOFs and their expansion coefficient time series. An important auxiliary time series used in this study is a ‘‘Southern Oscillation index’’ based on marine surface observations. By means of several different analysis techniques, the time variability of the leading EOF of the global SST field is separated into two components: one identified with the ‘‘ENSO cycle-related’’ variability on the interannual timescale, and the other a linearly independent ‘‘residual’’ comprising all the interdecadal variability in the record. The two components exhibit rather similar spatial signatures in the global SST, SLP, and wind stress fields. The SST signature in the residual variability is less equatorially confined in the eastern Pacific and it is relatively more prominent over the extratropical North Pacific. The corresponding SLP signature is also stronger over the extratropical North Pacific, and its counterpart in the cold season 500-mb height field more closely resembles the PNA pattern. The amplitude time series of the ENSO-like pattern in the residual variability reflects the above-mentioned shift in 1976‐77, as well as a number of other prominent features, including a shift of opposite polarity during the 1940s.

/pdf/enso-like-interdecadal-variability-1900-93-1od1ppsaks.pdf

ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93

Atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation are examined, with emphasis on vertical structure and teleconnections to middle latitudes. This paper is specifically concerned with the interannual variability of seasonal means for the Northern Hemisphere winter during the period 1951–78. Among the variables considered are sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific, precipitation at selected equatorial Pacific stations, a “Southern Oscillation Index” of sea level pressure, 200 mb height and tropospheric mean temperature at stations throughout the tropics, and Northern Hemisphere geopotential height fields. Selected statistics derived from surface data also are examined for the period 1910–45. Results are presented in the form of time series and correlation statistics for the variables listed above. Results concerning the relationships between sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and rainfall are consistent with the major conclusions of previous studies by J. Bjerknes a...

Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation

The principal components derived by Wallace and Gutzler (1981) from a 500 mb height data set are linearly transformed using the varimax method. Their data set consists of 45 winter months of National Meteorological Center analyses of Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height. The linear transformation (or rotation) of the principal components emphasizes the strongest relationships within the 500 mb height data set; hence, spatial patterns associated with the rotated principal components are simpler to interpret than the spatial patterns associated with the unrotated components. The teleconnection patterns identified by Wallace and Gutzler (1981) on the basis of the negative extrema approach closely resemble several of the spatial patterns of the rotated principal components. In order to show the seasonal dependence of the rotated principal components, an expanded data set consisting of 30 years of 500 mb height data is used. Most of the teleconnection patterns derived from the 90 winter month data set ar...

A Rotated Principal Component Analysis of the Interannual Variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb Height Field

Complex principal component (CPC) analysis is shown to be a useful method for identifying traveling and standing waves in geophysical data sets. Combinations of simple progressive and standing oscillations are used to examine the properties of this technique. These examples illustrate that although CPC analysis allows for the identification of traveling waves, many of the drawbacks associated with conventional principal component analysis remain, and sometimes become worse; e.g. the interpretation of CPC solutions is more difficult since both amplitude and phase relationships must be considered. A method for linearly transforming complex principal components was devised in order to identify regional relationships within large geophysical data sets. The errors in CPC analysis resulting from limited sample sizes are discussed.

Complex Principal Component Analysis: Theory and Examples

Meteorological data from over 2800 automated environmental monitoring stations in the western United States are collected, processed, archived, integrated, and disseminated as part of the MesoWest program. MesoWest depends upon voluntary access to provisional observations from environmental monitoring stations installed and maintained byfederal, state, and local agencies and commercial firms. In many cases, collection and transmission of these observations are facilitated by NWS forecast offices, government laboratories, and universities. MesoWest augments the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) network maintained by the NWS, Federal Aviation Administration, and Department of Defense. MesoWest increases the coverage of observations in remote locations and helps capture many of the localand mesoscale weather phenomena that impact the public. The primary goal of MesoWest is to improve timely access to automated observations for NWS forecasters at offices throughout the western United States. ...

Mesowest: cooperative mesonets in the western united states

Numerical studies of sea and lake breezes are reviewed. The modelled dependence of sea-breeze and lake-breeze characteristics on the land surface sensible heat flux, ambient geostrophic wind, atmospheric stability and moisture, water body dimensions, terrain height and slope, Coriolis parameter, surface roughness length, and shoreline curvature is discussed. Consensus results on the influence of these geophysical variables on sea and lake breezes are synthesized as well as current gaps in our understanding. A brief history of numerical modelling, an overview of recent high-resolution simulations, and suggestions for future research related to sea and lake breezes are also presented. The results of this survey are intended to be a resource for numerical modelling, coastal air quality, and wind power studies.

/pdf/sea-and-lake-breezes-a-review-of-numerical-studies-1pwx6578ea.pdf

John D. Horel

Papers

Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation

A Rotated Principal Component Analysis of the Interannual Variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb Height Field

Complex Principal Component Analysis: Theory and Examples

Mesowest: cooperative mesonets in the western united states

Sea and Lake Breezes: A Review of Numerical Studies