In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

The counterfactual decomposition technique popularized by Blinder (1973, Journal of Human Resources, 436–455) and Oaxaca (1973, International Economic Review, 693–709) is widely used to study mean outcome differences between groups. For example, the technique is often used to analyze wage gaps by sex or race. This article summarizes the technique and addresses several complications, such as the identification of effects of categorical predictors in the detailed decomposition or the estimation of standard errors. A new command called oaxaca is introduced, and examples illustrating its usage are given.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1536867X0800800401

The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models

机构投资者作为证券市场中的重要力量,越来越受到理论界和实务界的关注。论文对宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院会计学教授布赖恩-布希（Brian Bushee）的论文＂The influence of institutional investors on myopic R＆D investment behavior＂（机构投资者对企业短视研发投资行为的影响,以下简称Bushee（1998））进行评价并提出相关的建议和研究方向。

《The influence of institutional investors on myopic R＆D investment behavior》述评

We investigate the conventional wisdom that competition among interested parties attempting to influence a decision maker by providing verifiable information brings out all the relevant information. We find that, if the decision maker is strategically sophisticated and well informed about the relevant variables and about the preferences of the interested party or parties, competition may be unnecessary; while if the decision maker is unsophisticated or not well informed, competition is not generally sufficient. However, if the interested parties' interests are sufficiently opposed, or if the decision maker is seeking to advance the parties' decision maker's need for prior knowledge about the relevant variables and for strategic sophistication. In other settings, only the combination of competition among information providers and a sophisticated skepticism is sufficient to allow defective decision making.

Relying on the Information of Interested Parties

A unique feature of Islamic banking, in theory, is its profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) paradigm. In practice, however, we find that Islamic banking is not very different from conventional banking. Our study on Malaysia shows that only a negligible portion of Islamic bank financing is strictly PLS based and that Islamic deposits are not interest-free, but are closely pegged to conventional deposits. Our findings suggest that the rapid growth in Islamic banking is largely driven by the Islamic resurgence worldwide rather than by the advantages of the PLS paradigm and that Islamic banks should be subject to regulations similar to those of their western counterparts.

/pdf/islamic-banking-interest-free-or-interest-based-czwx2lkrl8.pdf

Islamic banking: Interest-free or interest-based?

http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/83715/1/14.pdf

Futures hedge ratios: a review

In this study, we modify the information share (IS) originally proposed by Hasbrouck, J. (1995). The proposed modified information share (MIS) leads to a unique measure of price discovery instead of the upper and lower IS bounds. Performance of MIS is compared with the Hasbrouck IS measure and the Gonzalo–Granger permanent–transitory decomposition (PT/GG)-based measure using simulations with 1,000 replications applied to the same three examples considered by Hasbrouck, J. (2002). The MIS is found to outperform both Hasbrouck IS measure and PT/GG measure. The empirical application of the MIS to three major stock indices indicates that price discovery takes place mostly in the futures market. Hence, the evidence supports the transaction cost hypothesis as well as the model proposed by Garbade, K. D., and Silber, W. L. (1983). © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:377–395, 2009

A new information share measure

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the Chinese stock market indices and a set of macro‐economic variables, i.e. money supply, industrial production, inflation, exchange rate and interest rates.Design/methodology/approach – The aims of this paper are addressed using heteroscedastic cointegration analysis.Findings – Results show that the cointegrating relationship does exist between stock prices and the macro‐economic variables in the highly speculative Chinese stock market. Detailed analysis shows stock market performance is positively related to that of macro‐economy in the long term.Research limitations/implications – The results imply that in the long run, investors can benefit in terms of better returns and portfolio diversification as the Chinese economy is expected to continue to perform strongly.Originality/value – The main contributions of this paper are two‐fold: first, this is the first paper to examine the long‐term relationship between the stock marke...

Analysis of the long‐term relationship between macro‐economic variables and the Chinese stock market using heteroscedastic cointegration

This paper examines the dynamics of administered interest rate changes in response to changes in the benchmark money market rate in Singapore. Our results show that the administered rates’ adjustment speed differs across both financial institutions and financial products. The financial institutions’ administered (lending and deposit) rates, moreover, are more rigid when they are below their equilibrium level than when they are above. Our finding, hence, implies that the speed of monetary transmission is not uniform across all sectors of the economy and that a tightening monetary policy takes a longer time to impact the economy than an expansionary monetary policy.

Monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel

In this article, optimal hedge ratios are estimated for different hedging horizons for 23 different futures contracts using wavelet analysis. The wavelet analysis is chosen to avoid the sample reduction problem faced by the conventional methods when applied to non-overlapping return series. Hedging performance comparisons between the wavelet hedge ratio and error-correction (EC) hedge ratio indicate that the latter performs better for more contracts for shorter hedging horizons. However, the performance of the wavelet hedge ratio improves with the increase in the length of the hedging horizon. This is true for both within-sample and out-of-sample cases. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:127–150, 2007

Keshab Shrestha

Papers

Futures hedge ratios: a review

A new information share measure

Analysis of the long‐term relationship between macro‐economic variables and the Chinese stock market using heteroscedastic cointegration

Monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel

An empirical analysis of the relationship between hedge ratio and hedging horizon using wavelet analysis