Showing papers by "Maja-Lisa Løchen published in 2022"

Early diagnosis and better rhythm management to improve outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 8th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference

Abstract: Abstract Despite marked progress in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), detecting AF remains difficult and AF-related complications cause unacceptable morbidity and mortality even on optimal current therapy. This document summarizes the key outcomes of the 8th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). Eighty-three international experts met in Hamburg for 2 days in October 2021. Results of the interdisciplinary, hybrid discussions in breakout groups and the plenary based on recently published and unpublished observations are summarized in this consensus paper to support improved care for patients with AF by guiding prevention, individualized management, and research strategies. The main outcomes are (i) new evidence supports a simple, scalable, and pragmatic population-based AF screening pathway; (ii) rhythm management is evolving from therapy aimed at improving symptoms to an integrated domain in the prevention of AF-related outcomes, especially in patients with recently diagnosed AF; (iii) improved characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may help to identify patients in need for therapy; (iv) standardized assessment of cognitive function in patients with AF could lead to improvement in patient outcomes; and (v) artificial intelligence (AI) can support all of the above aims, but requires advanced interdisciplinary knowledge and collaboration as well as a better medico-legal framework. Implementation of new evidence-based approaches to AF screening and rhythm management can improve outcomes in patients with AF. Additional benefits are possible with further efforts to identify and target atrial cardiomyopathy and cognitive impairment, which can be facilitated by AI.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology

Abstract: The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present position paper aims to provide practical evidence‐based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing heart failure are listed.

Sex differences in arterial hypertension

Abstract: Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract Sex differences in hypertension. BP, blood pressure; CV, cardiovascular; T2D, type 2 diabetes; OSAS, obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; LV, left ventricular; LA left atrial; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; BB, beta blocker; CCB, calcium channel blocker; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia: A Report From the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration

Abstract: Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Growing evidence suggests a consistent association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and cognitive impairment and dementia that is independent of clinical stroke. This report from the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration summarizes the evidence linking AF to cognitive impairment and dementia. It provides guidance on the investigation and management of dementia in patients with AF on the basis of best available evidence. The document also addresses suspected pathophysiologic mechanisms and identifies knowledge gaps for future research. Whereas AF and dementia share numerous risk factors, the association appears to be independent of these variables. Nevertheless, the evidence remains inconclusive regarding a direct causal effect. Several pathophysiologic mechanisms have been proposed, some of which are potentially amenable to early intervention, including cerebral microinfarction, AF-related cerebral hypoperfusion, inflammation, microhemorrhage, brain atrophy, and systemic atherosclerotic vascular disease. The mitigating role of oral anticoagulation in specific subgroups (eg, low stroke risk, short duration or silent AF, after successful AF ablation, or atrial cardiopathy) and the effect of rhythm versus rate control strategies remain unknown. Likewise, screening for AF (in cognitively normal or cognitively impaired patients) and screening for cognitive impairment in patients with AF are debated. The pathophysiology of dementia and therapeutic strategies to reduce cognitive impairment warrant further investigation in individuals with AF. Cognition should be evaluated in future AF studies and integrated with patient-specific outcome priorities and patient preferences. Further large-scale prospective studies and randomized trials are needed to establish whether AF is a risk factor for cognitive impairment, to investigate strategies to prevent dementia, and to determine whether screening for unknown AF followed by targeted therapy might prevent or reduce cognitive impairment and dementia.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology.

Abstract: The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present consensus document aims to provide practical evidence-based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing HF are listed.

Sex-specific time trends in incident atrial fibrillation and the contribution of risk factors: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016.

Abstract: AIMS To explore sex-specific time trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and to estimate the impact of changes in risk factor levels using individual participant-level data from the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 14 818 women and 13 225 men aged 25 years or older without AF were enrolled in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF throughout 2016. Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses. During follow-up, age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women decreased from 1.19 to 0.71 per 1000 person-years. In men, AF incidence increased from 1.18 to 2.82 per 1000 person-years in 2004, and then declined to 1.94 per 1000 person-years in 2016. Changes in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption together accounted for 10.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.4; 28.6) of the AF incidence decline in women and for 44.7% (95% CI: 19.2; 100.0) of the AF incidence increase in men. Reduction in SBP and DBP had the largest contribution to the decrease in AF incidence in women. Increase in BMI had the largest contribution to the increase in AF incidence in men. CONCLUSION In the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016, AF incidence decreased in women and increased following a reverse U-shape in men. Individual changes in SBP and DBP in women and individual changes in BMI in men were the most important risk factors contributing to the AF incidence trends.

Association between espresso coffee and serum total cholesterol: the Tromsø Study 2015–2016

Abstract: Background Coffee raises serum cholesterol because of its diterpenes, cafestol and kahweol, and the effect varies by brewing method. Population-based research on espresso coffee’s impact on serum cholesterol is scarce. Our aim was to examine how various brewing methods, in particular espresso, were associated with serum total cholesterol (S-TC). Methods We used cross-sectional population data from the seventh survey of the Tromsø Study in Northern Norway (N=21 083, age ≥40 years). Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the association between S-TC as the dependent variable and each level of coffee consumption using 0 cups as the reference level, adjusting for relevant covariates and testing for sex differences. Results Consumption of 3–5 cups of espresso daily was significantly associated with increased S-TC (0.09 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.17 for women and 0.16 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.24 for men), compared with participants drinking 0 cups of espresso per day. Consumption of ≥6 cups of boiled/plunger coffee daily was also associated with increased S-TC (0.30 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.48 for women and 0.23 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.38 for men), compared with participants drinking 0 cups of boiled/plunger coffee. Consumption of ≥6 cups of filtered coffee daily was associated with 0.11 mmol/L (95% CI 0.03 to 0.19) higher S-TC levels for women but not for men. Instant coffee consumption had a significant linear trend but showed no dose–response relationship when excluding participants not drinking instant coffee. There were significant sex differences for all coffee types except boiled/plunger coffee. Conclusion Espresso coffee consumption was associated with increased S-TC with significantly stronger association for men compared with women. Boiled/plunger coffee was associated with increased S-TC in both sexes and with similar magnitude as shown in previous research. Filtered coffee was associated with a small increase in S-TC in women. Further research on espresso and S-TC is warranted.

Risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke among older men exposed to prolonged endurance sport practice: a 10-year follow-up. The Birkebeiner Ageing Study and the Tromsø Study

Abstract: Aims Endurance sport practice is associated with a high prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), which increases the risk of stroke in the general population. However, stroke risk in endurance athletes with AF is sparsely investigated. Most studies have been limited by design and are largely restricted to younger and middle-aged populations. Thus, we aimed to investigate AF and stroke risk in older athletes exposed to prolonged endurance training. Method During a 10-year period, 505 male athletes aged ≥65 years frequently participating in a long-distance ski race were compared with 1867 men of the same age from the general population. The main exposure was endurance sport practice with self-reported AF and stroke as outcomes. Stroke risk was further examined by joint modelling of AF and endurance practice. Statistical analysis was conducted with a modified Poisson model. Results Athletes (median age: 68, range: 65–90) participated in a long-distance ski race over a median of 14 years (range: 1–53). Prevalence (28.5% vs 17.8%) and adjusted risk of AF (risk ratio (RR): 1.88, 95% CI: 1.49 to 2.37) were higher in athletes compared with non-athletes, whereas the prevalence (5.4% vs 9.7%) and risk of stroke were lower (RR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95). Compared with athletes without AF, risk of stroke was twofold in athletes (RR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.08 to 5.24) and nearly fourfold in non-athletes (RR: 3.87, 95% CI: 1.98 to 7.57) with AF. Conclusion Although older male endurance athletes experienced an increased risk of AF, the long-term risk of stroke was substantially reduced compared with non-athletes.

Risk Factors, Subsequent Disease Onset, and Prognostic Impact of Myocardial Infarction and Atrial Fibrillation

Abstract: Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. Methods and Results In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all‐cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population‐based cohorts. During a maximum follow‐up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03–2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31–2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. Conclusions We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.

The relationship between smokeless tobacco (snus) and anxiety and depression among adults and elderly people. A comparison to smoking in the Tromsø Study

Abstract: Abstract Aims To (i) define the characteristics of snus users compared with non‐users and smokers and (ii) define the relationship between snus use and self‐reported anxiety and depression and compare it with the relation between smoking and anxiety and depression. Design, setting and participants A cross‐sectional study based on data from the Norwegian population‐based survey, the Tromsø Study (2015–16). A total of 32 591 people aged 40 years and older in the municipality of Tromsø were invited to attend. There were 21 083 respondents, giving a 65% attendance rate. Measurements Tobacco use was assessed by current and previous use of snus or cigarettes. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Findings Snus users were more often male, were younger and had higher income and higher alcohol consumption than smokers and non‐users of snus. In a linear regression analysis, we found no significant association between current snus use and anxiety and depression after adjusting for background variables. However, there was a positive association between previous snus use and anxiety among males [adjusted beta = 0.258; 99% confidence interval (CI) = 0.023–0.492]. Regarding anxiety, the adjusted beta‐coefficients for current smoking were 0.425 (99% CI = 0.184–0.666) for females and 0.303 (99% CI = 0.084–0.522) for males. Concerning depression, the adjusted beta coefficients for current smoking were 0.569 (99% CI = 0.358–0.780) for females and 0.281 (99% CI = 0.060–0.503) for males. Conclusions In Norway, current snus users differ from current smokers by having a higher socio‐economic status and no detectable association with anxiety and depression. This suggests that the relationship between tobacco use and anxiety and depression is associated with the administration method.

Lifestyle factors as mediators of area-level socio-economic differentials in cardiovascular disease risk factors. The Tromsø Study

Abstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death and disability and living in areas with low socio-economic status (SES) is associated with increased risk of CVD. Lifestyle factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, an unhealthy diet and harmful alcohol use are main risk factors that contribute to other modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension, raised blood cholesterol, obesity, and diabetes. The potential impact of area-level socio-economic status (ASES) on metabolic CVD risk factors via lifestyle behaviors independent of individual SES has not been investigated previously.To estimate associations of ASES with CVD risk factors and the mediating role of lifestyle behaviors independent of individual-level SES.In this cross-sectional study, we included 19,415 participants (52% women) from the seventh survey of the Tromsø Study (2015-2016) (Tromsø7). The exposure variable ASES was created by aggregating individual-level SES variables (education, income, housing ownership) at the geographical subdivision level. Individual-level SES data and geographical subdivision of Tromsø municipality (36 areas) were obtained from Statistics Norway. Variables from questionnaires and clinical examinations obtained from Tromsø7 were used as mediators (smoking, snuff, alcohol, and physical activity), while the outcome variables were body mass index (BMI), total/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio, waist circumference, hypertension, diabetes. Mediation and mediated moderation analysis were performed with age as a moderator, stratified by sex.ASES was significantly associated with all outcome variables. CVD risk factor level declined with an increase in ASES. These associations were mediated by differences in smoking habits, alcohol use and physical activity. The associations of ASES with total/HDL cholesterol ratio and waist circumference (women) were moderated by age, and the moderating effects were mediated by smoking and physical activity in both sexes. The largest mediated effects were seen in the associations of ASES with total/HDL cholesterol ratio, with the mediators accounting for 43% of the observed effects.Living in lower SES areas is associated with increased CVD risk due to unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, such as smoking, alcohol use and physical inactivity. These associations were stronger in women and among older participants.

A Smartphone-Based Information Communication Technology Solution for Primary Modifiable Risk Factors for Noncommunicable Diseases: Pilot and Feasibility Study in Norway

Abstract: Background Cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes are the 4 main noncommunicable diseases. These noncommunicable diseases share 4 modifiable risk factors (tobacco use, harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet). Short smartphone surveys have the potential to identify modifiable risk factors for individuals to monitor trends. Objective We aimed to pilot a smartphone-based information communication technology solution to collect nationally representative data, annually, on 4 modifiable risk factors. Methods We developed an information communication technology solution with functionalities for capturing sensitive data from smartphones, receiving, and handling data in accordance with general data protection regulations. The main survey comprised 26 questions: 8 on socioeconomic factors, 17 on the 4 risk factors, and 1 about current or previous noncommunicable diseases. For answers to the continuous questions, a keyboard was displayed for entering numbers; there were preset upper and lower limits for acceptable response values. For categorical questions, pull-down menus with response options were displayed. The second survey comprised 9 yes-or-no questions. For both surveys, we used SMS text messaging. For the main survey, we invited 11,000 individuals, aged 16 to 69 years, selected randomly from the Norwegian National Population Registry (1000 from each of the 11 counties). For the second survey, we invited a random sample of 100 individuals from each county who had not responded to the main survey. All data, except county of residence, were self-reported. We calculated the distribution for socioeconomic background, tobacco use, diet, physical activity, and health condition factors overall and by sex. Results The response rate was 21.9% (2303/11,000; women: 1397/2263; 61.7%, men: 866/2263, 38.3%; missing: 40/2303, 1.7%). The median age for men was 52 years (IQR 40-61); the median age for women was 48 years (IQR 35-58). The main reported reason for nonparticipation in the main survey was that the sender of the initial SMS was unknown. Conclusions We successfully developed and piloted a smartphone-based information communication technology solution for collecting data on the 4 modifiable risk factors for the 4 main noncommunicable diseases. Approximately 1 in 5 invitees responded; thus, these data may not be nationally representative. The smartphone-based information communication technology solution should be further developed with the long-term goal to reduce premature mortality from the 4 main noncommunicable diseases.

Achievements of primary prevention targets in individuals with high risk of cardiovascular disease: an 8-year follow-up of the Tromsø study

Abstract: Abstract Aims To study change over 8 years in cardiovascular risk, achievement of national guideline-based treatment targets of lipids, blood pressure (BP) and smoking in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), medication use, and characteristics associated with target achievement among individuals with high CVD risk in a general population. Methods and results We followed 2524 women and men aged 40–79 years with high risk of CVD attending the population-based Tromsø study in 2007–08 (Tromsø6) to their participation in the next survey in 2015–16 (Tromsø7). We used descriptive statistics and regression models to study change in CVD risk and medication use, and characteristics associated with treatment target achievement. In total, 71.4% reported use of BP- and/or lipid-lowering medication at second screening. Overall, CVD risk decreased during follow-up, with a larger decrease among medication users compared with non-users. Treatment target achievement was 31.0% for total cholesterol <5 mmol/L, 27.3% for LDL cholesterol <3 mmol/L, 43.4% for BP <140/90 (<135/85 if diabetes) mmHg, and 85.4% for non-smoking. A total of 9.8% reached all treatment targets combined. Baseline risk factor levels and current medication use had the strongest associations with treatment target achievement. Conclusion We found an overall improvement in CVD risk factors among high-risk individuals over 8 years. However, guideline-based treatment target achievement was relatively low for all risk factors except smoking. Medication use was the strongest characteristic associated with achieving treatment targets. This study has demonstrated that primary prevention of CVD continues to remain a major challenge.

Associations between physical activity, left atrial size and incident atrial fibrillation: the Tromsø Study 1994–2016

Abstract: Aims Left atrial (LA) enlargement is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Interestingly, some athletes have increased risk of AF, which may be linked to LA enlargement; however, little is known about the relationship between LA enlargement and AF risk at moderate-level physical activity (PA). We aimed to explore the associations between PA, LA size and risk of incident AF, and if PA can attenuate the risk of AF with LA enlargement. Methods This prospective study followed 2479 participants (52.4% female), free from known cardiac pathology, for median 20.2 years. Participants were followed up for hospital-diagnosed AF, confirmed by electrocardiography, from 1994-95 through 2016. At baseline, LA size was evaluated by anteroposterior LA diameter, and PA was self-reported by questionnaire. Results We observed a U-shaped relationship between PA and AF, and moderately active had 32% lower AF risk than inactive (HRadjusted 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.93). Participants with LA enlargement had 38% higher AF risk compared with participants with normal LA size (HRadjusted 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69). However, the increased AF risk with LA enlargement was attenuated by PA; compared with inactive participants with LA enlargement, the AF risk was 45% lower among active with LA enlargement (HRadjusted 0.55, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.79). AF risk in active participants with LA enlargement did not differ from active with normal LA size. These patterns were observed in both men and women, and in participants over/under 65 years. Conclusion Moderate PA was associated with reduced AF risk, and PA attenuated the increased risk of AF with LA enlargement in both men and women and all age groups.

Assessment of mental health trajectories before and after myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation or stroke: analysis of a cohort study in Tromsø, Norway (Tromsø Study, 1994–2016)

Abstract: Objectives The increased survival rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) implies a higher proportion of individuals who live with CVD. Using data from the Tromsø Study, we aimed to investigate mental health symptom trajectories before and after myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation or stroke in a general population and to explore factors that contribute to the association. Design Cohort study. Setting Sample drawn from inhabitants of the municipality of Tromsø, Norway, who participated in the Tromsø Study (1994–2016). Participants A total of 18 719 participants (52.3% women) were included, and of these 2098 (32.9% women) were diagnosed with myocardial infarction, 1896 (41.9% women) with atrial fibrillation and 1263 (42.9% women) with stroke. Primary outcome measures Mental health symptoms were assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-10 and the Conor Mental Health Index. Results The participants who were diagnosed with either myocardial infarction or stroke had a significant monotonous increase in mental health symptoms before myocardial infarction (p=0.029) and stroke (p=0.029) that intensified at the time of diagnosis. After the event, the study found a higher prevalence of mental health symptoms with a decline in symptom levels over time for myocardial infarction (p<0.001) and stroke (p=0.004), but not for atrial fibrillation (before: p=0.180, after: p=0.410). The risk of elevated mental health symptoms with myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and stroke was associated with sex (p<0.001), age (p<0.01), physical activity (p<0.001), diabetes (p<0.05) and other comorbidities (p<0.001). Conclusion The study indicates that mental health problems among individuals with myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and stroke may have started to develop several years before the cardiovascular event and suggests that successful CVD rehabilitation may need to consider previous life factors. Future research is recommended to examine whether health promotion measures in a general population also create mental health resilience after a CVD event.

Antidepressant Use and Risk of Myocardial Infarction: A Longitudinal Investigation of Sex-Specific Associations in the HUNT Study

Abstract: ABSTRACT Objective Antidepressants are thought to affect the risk of cardiovascular disease, although the nature of the association is unclear. Men and women have unique cardiovascular risk factors, and sex differences in depression as well as the efficacy of antidepressants are important to consider. We examined whether antidepressant use was associated with risk of having a myocardial infarction (MI) and whether this association was sex-specific. Methods Data from The Trøndelag Health Study were used, gathered from a population in Norway (N = 31,765), collected from 1995 to 2008. These data were combined with the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Prescription Database. We performed logistic regression models to examine the association of antidepressant use on risk of having a fatal or nonfatal MI, adjusting for depression, anxiety, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, waist-hip ratio, smoking, age, and sex. Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals in parentheses. Results The results indicated that antidepressant use was associated with a reduced risk of having MI at a later date (OR = 0.49 [0.38–0.64]). Although this association was somewhat stronger for women (OR = 0.46 [0.31–0.68]) compared with men (OR = 0.53 [0.37–0.75]), analysis did not identify a sex-specific association of antidepressant use on MI. Follow-up analyses on different subtypes of antidepressants showed that both selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and tricyclic antidepressant were associated with a reduced risk of MI. Conclusions In this population study, the use of antidepressants was associated with a reduced risk of MI. This association was stronger for women, although we detected no interaction between sex and antidepressant use in terms of reduced risk of MI. Although limitations apply regarding causality, especially concerning a dose-response relationship, the results suggest that antidepressant use might reduce the risk of MI among both men and women.

Longitudinal Associations Between Cumulative Physical Activity and Change in Structure and Function of the Left Side of the Heart: The Tromsø Study 2007–2016

Abstract: Background Current knowledge about the relationship between physical activity (PA) and cardiac remodeling is mainly derived from cross-sectional studies of athletes, and there is a knowledge gap of this association in the general adult and elderly population. Therefore, we aimed to explore the longitudinal association between cumulative PA and change in cardiac structure and function in a general adult and elderly population. Methods This longitudinal study includes 594 participants from the sixth (Tromsø6, 2007–08) and seventh (Tromsø7, 2015–16) survey of the Tromsø Study. Cardiac structure and function were assessed by echocardiography at two time points, and PA was self-reported by questionnaire at both time points. PA volume was expressed as cumulative PA (Low, Moderate, and Hard) and the association with left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structure and function was assessed using ANCOVA. Results Overall, LA diameter index (LADi) increased significantly more in Hard compared to Moderate PA (+0.08 cm/m2, 95% CI 0.01–0.15, p = 0.020) from Tromsø6 to Tromsø7. When stratified by sex or age, higher levels of cumulative PA were associated with increased LADi in males and in participants <65 years only. Indexed LV mass (LVMi) increased significantly more in Moderate than in Low PA (+3.9 g/m2.7, 95% CI 0.23–7.57, p = 0.037). When stratified by sex or age, these changes in LVMi and indexed LV diameter (LVDi) were only significant in females. No significant associations were observed between cumulative PA and change in relative wall thickness, E/e' ratio, e' velocity, LV ejection fraction, and LADi/LVDi ratio. Conclusion Higher levels of cumulative PA were associated with increased LADi in males and participants <65 years, and with increased LVMi and LVDi in females. Despite cardiac chamber enlargement, the pump function of the heart did not change with higher levels of PA, and the atrioventricular ratio was unchanged. Our results indicate that cardiac chamber enlargement is a physiological response to PA.

Factors associated with predictors of smoking cessation from a Norwegian internet-based smoking cessation intervention study

Abstract: INTRODUCTION We examined if we could identify predictors for smoking cessation at six months post cessation, among smokers enrolled in a large Norwegian population-based intervention study. METHODS We followed 4333 (72.1% women) smokers who enrolled in an internet-based smoking cessation intervention during 2010–2012. The baseline questionnaire collected information on sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, including current snus use. The cessation outcome was self-reported no smoking past seven days, at six months. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals, to identify predictors of smoking cessation, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS Women (OR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.01–1.69) compared with men, and those with medium (OR=1.31; 95% CI: 1.02–1.68) and longer (OR=1.42; 95% CI: 1.06–1.90) education compared with those with shorter education, were more likely to be successful quitters. Overall, being a student (OR=0.56; 95% CI: 0.37–0.85) compared with having full-time work, and a moderate to high Fagerström test for nicotine dependence (FTND) score (OR=0.69; 95% CI: 0.55–0.87) compared with a low score, were predictors for unsuccessful cessation. Current snus use was a predictor for unsuccessful cessation compared to no snus use for both men (OR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.28–0.88) and women (OR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.32–0.75). CONCLUSIONS Our study identifies female sex and longer education as predictors for successful smoking cessation, while a medium or high FTND score, being a student, and current snus use, were predictors for unsuccessful smoking cessation. Only current snus use was a predictor for unsuccessful cessation for both sexes. Our results indicate that smokers should be warned that snus use may prevent successful smoking cessation.

Risk factors and prognosis for heart failure in atrial fibrillation subtypes in women and men

Abstract: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are common diseases that often co-exist and substantially impact both morbidity, mortality, and quality of life. Although there has been an increasing amount of research on HF in AF patients, there is limited knowledge on the association of AF subtypes (paroxysmal/persistent, permanent) with HF in women and men. To explore the sex-specific association between incident AF subtypes and HF risk factors and mortality in AF participants in a general population. A total of 14,798 women and 13,197 men aged 25 years and older were enrolled from 1994 to 2008 and followed up for incident AF and HF through 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to provide sex- and AF subtype-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of HF, risk factors for HF and joint influence on mortality when AF precedes HF. Participants without AF and HF were used as reference. In the analysis of risk factors for HF we included only those who developed AF, and the follow-up period started at the date of first detected AF. Models were adjusted for systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, current smoking, physical activity, and history of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, and diabetes mellitus, as well as age, with age as the time scale in the regression models. Over a median follow-up of 21.6 years, incident AF occurred in 856 women (471 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 385 with permanent AF) and 1,036 men (587 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 449 with permanent AF). Incident HF occurred in 761 women and 930 men. In both sexes, there was an increased risk of HF when AF was present. For permanent AF, women had a significantly higher risk of HF than men (HR 10.50, 95% CI 8.72–12.66 vs. HR 8.11, 95% CI 6.81–9.67). Permanent AF, current smoking, and prevalent myocardial infarction were significant risk factors for HF in AF participants in both sexes, while hypertension was only associated with increased risk of HF in women and BMI and prevalent stroke in men. Higher physical activity level was associated with reduced risk of AF in both sexes. The risk of death increased when HF succeeded AF. For women the risk of mortality was higher for permanent AF (HR 3.83, 95% CI 3.19–4.61 vs. HR 2.98, 95% CI 2.34–3.80), while in men it was highest for paroxysmal/persistent AF (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.94–4.58 vs. HR 2.91, 95% CI 2.37–3.57), but there was no significant difference between sexes. All AF subtypes were associated with an increased risk of HF in both sexes. For permanent AF, women had a significantly higher risk than men. Several risk factors for HF in AF participants were similar between sexes. However, hypertension was only a risk factor in women, whereas BMI and prevalent stroke were only risk factors in men. In AF participants, subsequent development of HF was associated with increased mortality in both sexes. Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): UiT The Arctic University of Norway

Exploring circulating biomarkers for risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation – insights from the BiomarCaRE project

Abstract: Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a major health issue in Europe and worldwide. Risk prediction is crucial to identify at-risk individuals and prevent subsequent complications of AF such as stroke and heart failure. Biomarker-enriched, personalized risk prediction offers great potential for population-wide prevention beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We aimed to identify robust predictors for incident AF using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. Three European community cohorts from the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) consortium were included to explore the predictive utility of 14 biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways of AF including lipids, inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP]), renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) within a population-based sample of 42,280 individuals free of AF at baseline. Investigated biomarkers were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions adjusted for multiple cardiovascular risk factors, and additionally by C-indices and net reclassification improvement (NRI) when compared to a reference model incorporating clinical variables. Their predictive utility for incident AF was further analyzed using different ML methods, including Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Random Survival Forest (RSF). Of 42,280 individuals (21,843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.6, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation [SD] 1.93, 95% CI 1.82–2.04; P<0.001). Further, hsTnI (HR per SD 1.18, 95% CI 1.13–1.22; P<0.001), cystatin C (HR per SD 1.16, 95% CI 1.10–1.23; P<0.001) and CRP (HR per SD 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.14, P=0.012) correlated positively with new-onset AF. NT-proBNP enhanced model discrimination (ΔC-index 0.037, 95% CI 0.029–0.044) markedly and yielded the best reclassification improvement (NRI 0.237, 95% CI 0.187–0.287) when compared to the clinical model. Neither the addition of hsTnI to NT-proBNP, nor a model comprising all investigated biomarkers further increased discrimination or reclassification substantially. In different ML models, NT-proBNP and age were the strongest predictors of incident AF. Using a dual approach with both classical regressions and modern ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF with relevant discriminative ability and reclassification yield beyond classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for AF risk prediction needs to be tested prospectively. Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): BiomarCaRE (FP7, HEALTH-F2-2011-278913)European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 847770, AFFECT-EU)

Clinical Synthetic Data Generation to Predict and Identify Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Diseases

Abstract: Noncommunicable diseases are among the most significant health threats in our society, being cardiovascular diseases (CVD) the most prevalent. Because of the severity and prevalence of these illnesses, early detection and prevention are critical for reducing the worldwide health and economic burden. Though machine learning (ML) methods usually outperform conventional approaches in many domains, class imbalance can hinder the learning process. Oversampling techniques on the minority classes can help to overcome this issue. In particular, in this paper we apply oversampling methods to categorical data, aiming to improve the identification of risk factors associated with CVD. To conduct this study, questionnaire data (categorical) obtained by the Norwegian Centre for E-health Research associated with healthy and CVD patients are considered. The goal of this work is two-fold. Firstly, evaluating the influence of combining oversampling techniques and linear/nonlinear supervised ML methods in binary tasks. Secondly, identifying the most relevant features for predicting healthy and CVD cases. Experimental results show that oversampling and FS techniques help to improve CVD prediction. Specifically, the use of Generative Adversarial Networks and linear models usually achieve the best performance (area under the curve of 67%), outperforming other oversampling techniques. Synthetic data generation has proved to be beneficial for both identifying risk factors and creating models with reasonable generalization capability in the CVD prediction.