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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

Stable isotopes in tree rings.

Much of our understanding of Earth's past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states-Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse-are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

/pdf/an-astronomically-dated-record-of-earth-s-climate-and-its-27nqvn7cbz.pdf

An astronomically dated record of Earth's climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years.

Information from paleoclimate archives

Pine latewood width, density, and stable carbon isotope ratios were measured at two sites, separated in altitude by 400 m, close to the forest limit on a south-facing slope in the western French Alps. The signal to noise ratio in the 6'3C series from each site is higher than that of either of the growth proxies. When the sites are combined, the high-frequency climate signal in the 613C series is enhanced, whereas in both the ring width and density series it is weakened. Because regional climate dominates over local site conditions, 6 3C ratios from long pine chronologies will provide a better indicator of past climate than either ring widths or densities. At dry Alpine sites, 613C values are controlled mainly by stomatal conductance, which is linked to summer moisture stress and thus antecedent precipitation.

Pine as Climate Indicators in a Dry Subalpine Environment, French Alps

Pine latewood width, density, and stable carbon isotope ratios were measured at two sites, separated in altitude by 400 m, close to the forest limit on a south-facing slope in the western French Alps. The signal to noise ratio in the δ13C series from each site is higher than that of either of the growth proxies. When the sites are combined, the high-frequency climate signal in the δ13C series is enhanced, whereas in both the ring width and density series it is weakened. Because regional climate dominates over local site conditions, δ13C ratios from long pine chronologies will provide a better indicator of past climate than either ring widths or densities. At dry Alpine sites, δ13C values are controlled mainly by stomatal conductance, which is linked to summer moisture stress and thus antecedent precipitation.

/pdf/latewood-width-maximum-density-and-stable-carbon-isotope-1hodjedzk5.pdf

Latewood Width, Maximum Density, and Stable Carbon Isotope Ratios of Pine as Climate Indicators in a Dry Subalpine Environment, French Alps

Publisher Summary Trees provide within the physical characteristics of their rings (width, relative density, reflectance), a record of past environmental changes, which, when expressed strongly, may be used successfully to extract palaeoclimatic information. Such approaches are now well established and have been applied globally. Trees can live for many hundreds or even thousands of years; it is, therefore, possible using these physical parameters to reconstruct climatic change throughout the life of the tree. Along with these established physical proxies, the stable carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen isotopic analyses of tree ring series provide a powerful suite of additional climate proxies. In comparison with the measurement of the physical proxies, the analysis of stable isotope ratios in tree rings is demanding, in terms of both personnel and resources. Consequently, the stable isotope analysis of tree rings can only be justified if the resulting data can provide additional, reliable climate information that cannot be obtained through alternative methods such as ring width or relative density. This chapter provides an introduction to the application of modern stable isotope techniques for the reconstruction and study of past climate from tree rings. Current challenges and limitations are discussed with specific emphasis placed on the development of robust isotope-based palaeoclimate time series and their potential for both isotopic and multiproxy analysis, using examples from a well-replicated site located close to the Boreal tree line.

Extracting Climatic Information from Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings

Cloud cover is one of the most important factors controlling the radiation balance of the Earth. The response of cloud cover to increasing global temperatures represents the largest uncertainty in ...

https://www.leif.org/EOS/2010GL046216.pdf

Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years

At present the most powerful tree-ring based climate reconstructions use high numbers of growth proxy series (ring width and density) to produce spatially smoothed estimates, such as average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These single parameter reconstructions might be supplemented with regional climate reconstructions capable of capturing variability in more than one climate variable without lower replication compromising statistical quality, if multiple tree ring proxies were used. Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata latewood density, width and δ13C series are presented from two sites in the French subalpine zone, east of Briancon. Where two proxies have the same dominant climate control their combination enhances that signal. Where proxies differ in dominant controlling climate variable, combining series allows access to bi-variable calibrations. Using this approach, multi-proxy reconstructions of both temperature and precipitation would better reflect complex synoptic variability in climate on spatially useful scales.

Mary Gagen

Papers

Pine as Climate Indicators in a Dry Subalpine Environment, French Alps

Latewood Width, Maximum Density, and Stable Carbon Isotope Ratios of Pine as Climate Indicators in a Dry Subalpine Environment, French Alps

Extracting Climatic Information from Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings

Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years

Combining Ring Width, Density and Stable Carbon Isotope Proxies to Enhance the Climate Signal in Tree-Rings: An Example from the Southern French Alps