Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

Nature is under siege. In the last 10,000 y the human population has grown from 1 million to 7.8 billion. Much of Earth’s arable lands are already in agriculture (1), millions of acres of tropical forest are cleared each year (2, 3), atmospheric CO2 levels are at their highest concentrations in more than 3 million y (4), and climates are erratically and steadily changing from pole to pole, triggering unprecedented droughts, fires, and floods across continents. Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million y ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished.

Ongoing losses have been clearly demonstrated for better-studied groups of organisms. Terrestrial vertebrate population sizes and ranges have contracted by one-third, and many mammals have experienced range declines of at least 80% over the last century (5). A 2019 assessment suggests that half of all amphibians are imperiled (2.5% of which have recently gone extinct) (6). Bird numbers across North America have fallen by 2.9 billion since 1970 (7). Prospects for the world’s coral reefs, beyond the middle of this century, could scarcely be more dire (8). A 2020 United Nations report estimated that more than a million species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades (9), but also see the more bridled assessments in refs. 10 and 11.

Although a flurry of reports has drawn attention to declines in insect abundance, biomass, species richness, and range sizes (e.g., refs. 12⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓–18; for reviews see refs. 19 and 20), whether the rates of declines for insects are on par with or exceed those for other groups remains unknown. There are still too … 

[↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: david.wagner{at}uconn.edu.

 [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/2/e2023989118.full.pdf

Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts

higher classification of the Lycaenidae (Lepidoptera): a tentative arrangement

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The Lepidoptera Form Function And Diversity

Severe insect declines make headlines, but they are rarely based on systematic monitoring outside of Europe. We estimate the rate of change in total butterfly abundance and the population trends for 81 species using 21 years of systematic monitoring in Ohio, USA. Total abundance is declining at 2% per year, resulting in a cumulative 33% reduction in butterfly abundance. Three times as many species have negative population trends compared to positive trends. The rate of total decline and the proportion of species in decline mirror those documented in three comparable long-term European monitoring programs. Multiple environmental changes such as climate change, habitat degradation, and agricultural practices may contribute to these declines in Ohio and shift the makeup of the butterfly community by benefiting some species over others. Our analysis of life-history traits associated with population trends shows an impact of climate change, as species with northern distributions and fewer annual generations declined more rapidly. However, even common and invasive species associated with human-dominated landscapes are declining, suggesting widespread environmental causes for these trends. Declines in common species, although they may not be close to extinction, will have an outsized impact on the ecosystem services provided by insects. These results from the most extensive, systematic insect monitoring program in North America demonstrate an ongoing defaunation in butterflies that on an annual scale might be imperceptible, but cumulatively has reduced butterfly numbers by a third over 20 years.

/pdf/butterfly-abundance-declines-over-20-years-of-systematic-3idxzkztkv.pdf

Butterfly Abundance Declines Over 20 Years of Systematic Monitoring in Ohio, USA

Observing the Observers: How Participants Contribute Data to iNaturalist and Implications for Biodiversity Science

Premise Citizen science platforms for sharing photographed digital vouchers, such as iNaturalist, are a promising source of phenology data, but methods and best practices for use have not been developed. Here we introduce methods using Yucca flowering phenology as a case study, because drivers of Yucca phenology are not well understood despite the need to synchronize flowering with obligate pollinators. There is also evidence of recent anomalous winter flowering events, but with unknown spatiotemporal extents. Methods We collaboratively developed a rigorous, consensus-based approach for annotating and sharing whole plant and flower presence data from iNaturalist and applied it to Yucca records. We compared spatiotemporal flowering coverage from our annotations with other broad-scale monitoring networks (e.g., the National Phenology Network) in order to determine the unique value of photograph-based citizen science resources. Results Annotations from iNaturalist were uniquely able to delineate extents of unusual flowering events in Yucca. These events, which occurred in two different regions of the Desert Southwest, did not appear to disrupt the typical-period flowering. Discussion Our work demonstrates that best practice approaches to scoring iNaturalist records provide fine-scale delimitation of phenological events. This approach can be applied to other plant groups to better understand how phenology responds to changing climate.

/pdf/methods-for-broad-scale-plant-phenology-assessments-using-1jdwa0t6yn.pdf

Methods for broad-scale plant phenology assessments using citizen scientists’ photographs

A wave of green leaves and multi-colored flowers advances from low to high latitudes each spring. However, little is known about how flowering offset (i.e., ending of flowering) and duration of populations of the same species vary along environmental gradients. Understanding these patterns is critical for predicting the effects of future climate and land-use change on plants, pollinators, and herbivores. Here, we investigated potential climatic and landscape drivers of flowering onset, offset, and duration of 52 plant species with varying key traits. We generated phenology estimates using >270,000 community-science photographs and a novel presence-only phenometric estimation method. We found longer flowering durations in warmer areas, which is more obvious for summer-blooming species compared to spring-bloomers driven by their strongly differing offset dynamics. We also found that higher human population density and higher annual precipitation are associated with delayed flowering offset and extended flowering duration. Finally, offset of woody perennials was more sensitive than herbaceous species to both climate and urbanization drivers. Empirical forecast models suggested that flowering durations will be longer in 2030 and 2050 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, especially for summer-blooming species. Our study provides critical insight into drivers of key flowering phenophases and confirms that Hopkins' Bioclimatic Law also applies to flowering durations for summer-blooming species and herbaceous spring-blooming species.

Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration.

The accuracy of phenology estimators for use with sparsely sampled presence-only observations

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ecog.05396

Michael W. Belitz

Papers

Observing the Observers: How Participants Contribute Data to iNaturalist and Implications for Biodiversity Science

Methods for broad-scale plant phenology assessments using citizen scientists’ photographs

Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration.

The accuracy of phenology estimators for use with sparsely sampled presence-only observations

A complete inventory of North American butterfly occurrence data: narrowing data gaps, but increasing bias