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A new heuristic approach for minimizing possibly nonlinear and non-differentiable continuous space functions is presented. By means of an extensive testbed it is demonstrated that the new method converges faster and with more certainty than many other acclaimed global optimization methods. The new method requires few control variables, is robust, easy to use, and lends itself very well to parallel computation.

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Differential Evolution – A Simple and Efficient Heuristic for Global Optimization over Continuous Spaces

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

Recurrent neural networks can be used to map input sequences to output sequences, such as for recognition, production or prediction problems. However, practical difficulties have been reported in training recurrent neural networks to perform tasks in which the temporal contingencies present in the input/output sequences span long intervals. We show why gradient based learning algorithms face an increasingly difficult problem as the duration of the dependencies to be captured increases. These results expose a trade-off between efficient learning by gradient descent and latching on information for long periods. Based on an understanding of this problem, alternatives to standard gradient descent are considered. >

http://cslt.riit.tsinghua.edu.cn/mediawiki/images/0/03/Learning_Long-Term_Dependencies_with_Gradient_Descent_is_Difficult.pdf

Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult

A new global optimization algorithm for functions of continuous variables is presented, derived from the “Simulated Annealing” algorithm recently introduced in combinatorial optimization.The algorithm is essentially an iterative random search procedure with adaptive moves along the coordinate directions. It permits uphill moves under the control of a probabilistic criterion, thus tending to avoid the first local minima encountered.The algorithm has been tested against the Nelder and Mead simplex method and against a version of Adaptive Random Search. The test functions were Rosenbrock valleys and multiminima functions in 2,4, and 10 dimensions.The new method proved to be more reliable than the others, being always able to find the optimum, or at least a point very close to it. It is quite costly in term of function evaluations, but its cost can be predicted in advance, depending only slightly on the starting point.

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Minimizing multimodal functions of continuous variables with the “simulated annealing” algorithm—Corrigenda for this article is available here

Financial prices have been found to exhibit some universal characteristics1,2,3,4,5,6 that resemble the scaling laws characterizing physical systems in which large numbers of units interact. This raises the question of whether scaling in finance emerges in a similar way — from the interactions of a large ensemble of market participants. However, such an explanation is in contradiction to the prevalent ‘efficient market hypothesis’7 in economics, which assumes that the movements of financial prices are an immediate and unbiased reflection of incoming news about future earning prospects. Within this hypothesis, scaling in price changes would simply reflect similar scaling in the ‘input’ signals that influence them. Here we describe a multi-agent model of financial markets which supports the idea that scaling arises from mutual interactions of participants. Although the ‘news arrival process’ in our model lacks both power-law scaling and any temporal dependence in volatility, we find that it generates such behaviour as a result of interactions between agents.

Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market

The finding of clustered volatility and ARCH effects is ubiquitous in financial data. This paper presents a possible explanation for this phenomenon within a multi-agent framework of speculative activity. In the model, both chartist and fundamentalist strategies are considered with agents switching between both behavioural variants according to observed differences in pay-offs. Price changes are brought about by a market maker reacting to imbalances between demand and supply. Most of the time, a stable and efficient market results. However, its usual tranquil performance is interspersed by sudden transient phases of destabilisation. An outbreak of volatility occurs if the fraction of agents using chartist techniques surpasses a certain threshold value, but such phases are quickly brought to an end by stabilising tendencies. Formally, this pattern can be understood as an example of a new type of dynamic behaviour known as "on-off intermittency" in physics literature. Statistical analysis of simulated time ...

Michele Marchesi

Papers

Minimizing multimodal functions of continuous variables with the “simulated annealing” algorithm—Corrigenda for this article is available here

Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market

Volatility clustering in financial markets: a microsimulation of interacting agents

A hybrid genetic-neural architecture for stock indexes forecasting

Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Extreme programming and agile processes in software engineering