Showing papers by "Patrick Minnis published in 1997"

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

Abstract: We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979–1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979–1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979–1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.

Asymmetry in the diurnal variation of surface albedo

Abstract: Remote sensing of surface properties and estimation of clear-sky and surface albedo generally assume that the albedo depends only on the solar zenith angle. The effects of dew, frost, and precipitation as well as evaporation and wind can lead to some systematic diurnal variability resulting in an asymmetric diurnal cycle of albedo. This paper examines the symmetry of both surface-observed and top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedos derived from satellite data. Broadband surface albedos were measured at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains Central Facility near Lamont, Oklahoma and several extended facilities. GOES satellite radiance data are converted to broadband albedo using bidirectional reflectance functions and an empirical narrowband-to-broadband relationship. The surface and top-of-atmosphere albedos vary in a consistent fashion during both the morning and afternoon. The initial results indicate that surface moisture, probably in the form of dew, has a significant effect and can change the albedo by 10% at a given solar zenith angle between the morning and afternoon. Wind speed is well correlated with the diurnal albedo asymmetry. Light winds and small dew point depressions are associated with the greatest morning/afternoon albedo differences. Aerosols tend to moderate those differences. Changes in the surface properties from dew may alter the bidirectional reflectance characteristics of the scene, affecting the interpretation of remote sensing data. Errors in the diurnally averaged albedos derived from Sun-synchronous satellite measurements that arise from albedo asymmetry are generally less than 3%. Further examination of surface albedo asymmetry is needed to assess its influence on satellite measurements and the surface energy budget over a range of land surface types.

Surface-Based Observations of Contrail Occurrence Over the US, Apr. 1993 to Apr. 1994

Abstract: Surface observers stationed at 19 U.S. Air Force Bases and Army Air Stations recorded the daytime occurrence of contrails and cloud fraction on an hourly basis for the period April 1993 through April 1994. Each observation uses one of four main categories to report contrails as unobserved, non-persistent, persistent, and indeterminate. Additional classification includes the co-occurrence of cirrus with each report. The data cover much of the continental U.S. including locations near major commercial air routes. The mean annual frequency of occurrence in unobstructed viewing conditions is 13 percent for these sites. Contrail occurrence varied substantially with location and season. Most contrails occurred during the winter months and least during the summer with a pronounced minimum during July. Although nocturnal observations are not available, it appears that the contrails have a diurnal variation that peaks during mid morning over most areas. Contrails were most often observed in areas near major commercial air corridors and least often over areas far removed from the heaviest air traffic. A significant correlation exists between mean contrail frequency and aircraft fuel usage above 7 km suggesting predictive potential for assessing future contrail effects on climate.