Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Summary

1
Humans have traded and transported alien species for millennia with two notable step-changes: the end of the Middle Ages and beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, in recent decades the world has entered a new phase in the magnitude and diversity of biological invasions: the Era of Globalization. This Special Profile reviews the links between the main drivers of globalization and biological invasions and examines state-of-the-art approaches to pathway risk assessment to illustrate new opportunities for managing invasive species.

2
Income growth is a primary driver of globalization and a clear association exists between Gross Domestic Product and the richness of alien floras and faunas for many regions of the world. In many cases, the exposure of these economies to trade is highlighted by the significant role of merchandise imports in biological invasions, especially for island ecosystems.

3
Post-1950, technical and logistic improvements have accelerated the ease with which commodities are transported across the globe and hindered the traceability of goods and the ease of intercepting pests. New sea, land and air links in international trade and human transport have established novel pathways for the spread of alien species. Increasingly, the science advances underpinning invasive species management must move at the speed of commerce.

4
Increasing transport networks and demand for commodities have led to pathway risk assessments becoming the frontline in the prevention of biological invasions. The diverse routes of introduction arising from contaminant, stowaway, corridor and unaided pathways, in both aquatic and terrestrial biomes are complex. Nevertheless, common features enable comparable approaches to risk assessment. By bringing together spatial data on climate suitability, habitat availability and points of entry, as well a demographic models that include species dispersal (both natural and human-mediated) and measures of propagule pressure, it is possible to generate risk maps highlighting potential invasion hotspots that can inform prevention strategies.

5
Synthesis and applications. To date, most attempts to model pathways have focused on describing the likelihood of invader establishment. Few have modelled explicit management strategies such as optimal detection and inspection strategies and assessments of the effectiveness of different management measures. A future focus in these areas will ensure research informs response.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01600.x

Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization

Summary 1. Humans have traded and transported alien species for millennia with two notable step-changes: the end of the Middle Ages and beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, in recent decades the world has entered a new phase in the magnitude and diversity of biological invasions: the Era of Globalization. This Special Profile reviews the links between the main drivers of globalization and biological invasions and examines state-of-the-art approaches to pathway risk assessment to illustrate new opportunities for managing invasive species. 2. Income growth is a primary driver of globalization and a clear association exists between Gross Domestic Product and the richness of alien floras and faunas for many regions of the world. In many cases, the exposure of these economies to trade is highlighted by the significant role of merchandise imports in biological invasions, especially for island ecosystems. 3. Post-1950, technical and logistic improvements have accelerated the ease with which commodities are transported across the globe and hindered the traceability of goods and the ease of intercepting pests. New sea, land and air links in international trade and human transport have established novel pathways for the spread of alien species. Increasingly, the science advances underpinning invasive species management must move at the speed of commerce. 4. Increasing transport networks and demand for commodities have led to pathway risk assessments becoming the frontline in the prevention of biological invasions. The diverse routes of

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EDITOR'S PERSPECTIVE Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization

In the 12 years since Dudgeon et al. (2006) reviewed major pressures on freshwater ecosystems, the biodiversity crisis in
the world’s lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams and wetlands has deepened. While lakes, reservoirs and rivers cover only
2.3% of the Earth’s surface, these ecosystems host at least 9.5% of the Earth’s described animal species. Furthermore,
using the World Wide Fund for Nature’s Living Planet Index, freshwater population declines (83% between 1970 and
2014) continue to outpace contemporaneous declines in marine or terrestrial systems. The Anthropocene has brought
multiple new and varied threats that disproportionately impact freshwater systems. We document 12 emerging threats
to freshwater biodiversity that are either entirely new since 2006 or have since intensified: (i) changing climates; (ii)
e-commerce and invasions; (iii) infectious diseases; (iv) harmful algal blooms; (v) expanding hydropower; (vi) emerging
contaminants; (vii) engineered nanomaterials; (viii) microplastic pollution; (ix) light and noise; (x) freshwater salinisation;
(xi) declining calcium; and (xii) cumulative stressors. Effects are evidenced for amphibians, fishes, invertebrates, microbes,
plants, turtles and waterbirds, with potential for ecosystem-level changes through bottom-up and top-down processes.
In our highly uncertain future, the net effects of these threats raise serious concerns for freshwater ecosystems. However,
we also highlight opportunities for conservation gains as a result of novel management tools (e.g. environmental flows,
environmental DNA) and specific conservation-oriented actions (e.g. dam removal, habitat protection policies,managed
relocation of species) that have been met with varying levels of success.Moving forward, we advocate hybrid approaches
that manage fresh waters as crucial ecosystems for human life support as well as essential hotspots of biodiversity and
ecological function. Efforts to reverse global trends in freshwater degradation now depend on bridging an immense gap
between the aspirations of conservation biologists and the accelerating rate of species endangerment.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/brv.12480

Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity

Summary 1. Fundamental ecological research is both intrinsically interesting and provides the basic knowledge required to answer applied questions of importance to the management of the natural world. The 100th anniversary of the British Ecological Society in 2013 is an opportune moment to reflect on the current status of ecology as a science and look forward to high-light priorities for future work.

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Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. 2. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. 3. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. 4. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. 5. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. 6. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.

/pdf/future-novel-threats-and-opportunities-facing-uk-3nc4w1w4ek.pdf

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

There is an increased appreciation of the need for horizon scanning: the identification and assessment of issues that could be serious in the future but have currently attracted little attention. However, a process is lacking to identify appropriate responses by policy makers and practitioners. We thus suggest a process and trial its applicability. Twelve environmental conservation organizations assessed each of 15 previously identified horizon scanning issues for their impact upon their organization and the urgency with which they should consider the issue. They also identified triggers that would result in changes in their scoring of the likely urgency and impact of the issues. This process enables organizations to identify priority issues, identify issues they can ignore until there are further developments, benchmark priorities across organizations and identify cross-organizational priorities that warrant further attention, so providing an agenda for collation of evidence, research and policy development. In this trial the review of responses by other organizations resulted in the upgrading of response by a substantial proportion of organizations for eight of the 15 issues examined. We suggest this approach, with the novel components of collaborative assessment and identification of triggers, could be adopted widely, both within conservation organizations and across a wider range of policy issues

/pdf/enhancing-the-value-of-horizon-scanning-through-2vu5www59x.pdf

Paul Rose

Papers

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Enhancing the value of horizon scanning through collaborative review