Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Summary

1
Humans have traded and transported alien species for millennia with two notable step-changes: the end of the Middle Ages and beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, in recent decades the world has entered a new phase in the magnitude and diversity of biological invasions: the Era of Globalization. This Special Profile reviews the links between the main drivers of globalization and biological invasions and examines state-of-the-art approaches to pathway risk assessment to illustrate new opportunities for managing invasive species.

2
Income growth is a primary driver of globalization and a clear association exists between Gross Domestic Product and the richness of alien floras and faunas for many regions of the world. In many cases, the exposure of these economies to trade is highlighted by the significant role of merchandise imports in biological invasions, especially for island ecosystems.

3
Post-1950, technical and logistic improvements have accelerated the ease with which commodities are transported across the globe and hindered the traceability of goods and the ease of intercepting pests. New sea, land and air links in international trade and human transport have established novel pathways for the spread of alien species. Increasingly, the science advances underpinning invasive species management must move at the speed of commerce.

4
Increasing transport networks and demand for commodities have led to pathway risk assessments becoming the frontline in the prevention of biological invasions. The diverse routes of introduction arising from contaminant, stowaway, corridor and unaided pathways, in both aquatic and terrestrial biomes are complex. Nevertheless, common features enable comparable approaches to risk assessment. By bringing together spatial data on climate suitability, habitat availability and points of entry, as well a demographic models that include species dispersal (both natural and human-mediated) and measures of propagule pressure, it is possible to generate risk maps highlighting potential invasion hotspots that can inform prevention strategies.

5
Synthesis and applications. To date, most attempts to model pathways have focused on describing the likelihood of invader establishment. Few have modelled explicit management strategies such as optimal detection and inspection strategies and assessments of the effectiveness of different management measures. A future focus in these areas will ensure research informs response.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01600.x

Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization

Summary 1. Humans have traded and transported alien species for millennia with two notable step-changes: the end of the Middle Ages and beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, in recent decades the world has entered a new phase in the magnitude and diversity of biological invasions: the Era of Globalization. This Special Profile reviews the links between the main drivers of globalization and biological invasions and examines state-of-the-art approaches to pathway risk assessment to illustrate new opportunities for managing invasive species. 2. Income growth is a primary driver of globalization and a clear association exists between Gross Domestic Product and the richness of alien floras and faunas for many regions of the world. In many cases, the exposure of these economies to trade is highlighted by the significant role of merchandise imports in biological invasions, especially for island ecosystems. 3. Post-1950, technical and logistic improvements have accelerated the ease with which commodities are transported across the globe and hindered the traceability of goods and the ease of intercepting pests. New sea, land and air links in international trade and human transport have established novel pathways for the spread of alien species. Increasingly, the science advances underpinning invasive species management must move at the speed of commerce. 4. Increasing transport networks and demand for commodities have led to pathway risk assessments becoming the frontline in the prevention of biological invasions. The diverse routes of

/pdf/editor-s-perspective-trade-transport-and-trouble-managing-2su7s3awks.pdf

EDITOR'S PERSPECTIVE Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization

In the 12 years since Dudgeon et al. (2006) reviewed major pressures on freshwater ecosystems, the biodiversity crisis in
the world’s lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams and wetlands has deepened. While lakes, reservoirs and rivers cover only
2.3% of the Earth’s surface, these ecosystems host at least 9.5% of the Earth’s described animal species. Furthermore,
using the World Wide Fund for Nature’s Living Planet Index, freshwater population declines (83% between 1970 and
2014) continue to outpace contemporaneous declines in marine or terrestrial systems. The Anthropocene has brought
multiple new and varied threats that disproportionately impact freshwater systems. We document 12 emerging threats
to freshwater biodiversity that are either entirely new since 2006 or have since intensified: (i) changing climates; (ii)
e-commerce and invasions; (iii) infectious diseases; (iv) harmful algal blooms; (v) expanding hydropower; (vi) emerging
contaminants; (vii) engineered nanomaterials; (viii) microplastic pollution; (ix) light and noise; (x) freshwater salinisation;
(xi) declining calcium; and (xii) cumulative stressors. Effects are evidenced for amphibians, fishes, invertebrates, microbes,
plants, turtles and waterbirds, with potential for ecosystem-level changes through bottom-up and top-down processes.
In our highly uncertain future, the net effects of these threats raise serious concerns for freshwater ecosystems. However,
we also highlight opportunities for conservation gains as a result of novel management tools (e.g. environmental flows,
environmental DNA) and specific conservation-oriented actions (e.g. dam removal, habitat protection policies,managed
relocation of species) that have been met with varying levels of success.Moving forward, we advocate hybrid approaches
that manage fresh waters as crucial ecosystems for human life support as well as essential hotspots of biodiversity and
ecological function. Efforts to reverse global trends in freshwater degradation now depend on bridging an immense gap
between the aspirations of conservation biologists and the accelerating rate of species endangerment.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/brv.12480

Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them.

Ecological impacts of early 21st century agricultural change in Europe: a review. J Environ Manag

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. 2. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. 3. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. 4. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. 5. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. 6. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.

/pdf/future-novel-threats-and-opportunities-facing-uk-3nc4w1w4ek.pdf

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Past hunter-gatherer societies are often perceived as having co-existed harmoniously with their environment. In reality, few ecosystems remain unaltered following the arrival of humans and the relationship between people and wildlife over the past thousand years is characterised more by conflict than harmony. Over this period, many industrialised countries, particularly in Europe, have seen a substantial loss of natural habitats, in parallel with huge increases in human populations. England is one such country; here, the human population is estimated to have increased 45-fold since 1066 AD. Over the past 50 years, however, many of these countries have witnessed a change in public attitudes, leading to ‘protective’ legislation for species and habitats, with the subsequent recovery of at least some species. As a result, some people now argue that certain species are ‘over-protected’, leading to calls to remove protection. We review how the regulatory system in England is used to achieve a sustainable balance between wildlife and human interests, illustrated with examples from key areas of conflict. In all, more than 8000 licences permitting activities affecting protected species are issued in England each year, about half of which concern human–wildlife conflicts, including almost 1000 aimed at preventing serious damage by wildlife. We estimate that wildlife licences are relied on by more than 100 000 people to resolve human–wildlife conflicts. In most cases, less than 1% of a species’ population is likely to be affected by regulated activities and, where this is not the case, thresholds are set to ensure the control measures do not lead to the long-term detriment of populations. We conclude by suggesting how the legislative framework may need to adapt to deliver modern aspirations to reconcile human and wildlife interests.

Wildlife conflict resolution: a review of problems, solutions and regulation in England

http://biologia.savba.sk/59_2_04/macdonald_dw.pdf

The ecology of weasels (Mustela nivalis) on mixed farmland in southern England

Summary


1. Maintaining and protecting biodiversity for the future under changing environmental and socio-political conditions is a major challenge. Scenarios are used as decision-making aids for natural resource management at local to global scales. Scenarios are underutilised by conservationists at a local level, where they can be highly effective for anticipating change.



2. People’s values and attitudes are crucial in determining the future, yet they are rarely placed at the centre of scenario exercises. Novel methods have been developed to fully integrate people’s worldviews into scenario planning. The ethnographic futures framework focuses on how changes occur through human agency and how they will be felt by society in the future. The three horizons approach considers how different ideas and paradigms become more, or less, dominant in society over time.



3. Natural England (NE), the statutory adviser to the UK Government on the natural environment in England, carried out a scenario planning process using these novel approaches. The scenarios consider a wide range of global and local factors and investigate their impact upon the natural environment in England, to 2060.



4. A set of four contrasting scenarios was produced. Despite their differences, nature was always highly valued in some form; ultimately, the state of the natural environment was determined not by natural forces but by societal choice.



5. Synthesis and applications. Scenario planning allows the development of key visions for the future. These can be used to establish, and influence, the direction of future trends and their impacts on the natural environment, particularly in the context of a shifting basis for conservation policy that seeks to enhance ecological resilience. The scenarios are being used within NE to help local communities shape the future of their natural environment; this process can be utilised by governments or environmental agencies elsewhere. This study demonstrates that across a range of scenarios the future state of the natural environment is very much a matter of societal choice. Decision-making frameworks for environmental conservation must take proper account of ecological knowledge, societal values, foresight and complexity.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02055.x

Tom Tew

Papers

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Wildlife conflict resolution: a review of problems, solutions and regulation in England

The ecology of weasels (Mustela nivalis) on mixed farmland in southern England

Securing the future of the natural environment: using scenarios to anticipate challenges to biodiversity, landscapes and public engagement with nature

Small mammals on lowland farmland