Showing papers by "Peter D. Baade published in 2020"

Global Trends in Incidence Rates of Primary Adult Liver Cancers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract: Background: Primary liver cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Global burden varies, reflecting geographical distribution of viral hepatitis. Our objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of published current trends in incidence of adult liver cancers and histological types worldwide.Methods: This study used systematic searches of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases for English-language peer-reviewed articles published from 1 January 2008 to 01 September 2019. Inclusion criteria were population-based studies of adult liver cancer patients with quantitative estimates of temporal trends in incidence for liver cancers and/or histological types. For multiple studies from the same geographical area, only the publication that reported the most recent trends for the same cancer type and population subgroup was included. Review was conducted per PRISMA guidelines. Two authors independently extracted data and critically assessed studies. Proposed contributors to observed trends were extracted from included articles. Study-specific estimates of the annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis models. Heterogeneity was measured using the I-2 statistics and publication bias evaluated using funnel plots and Egger's tests.Results: Overall, 53 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 31 were included in the meta-analysis. Overall, pooled APC estimates were +0.8 (95% CI -0.3, +2.0) for liver cancers combined, +2.6 (95% CI +1.2, +4.0) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and +4.3 (95% CI +2.5, +6.1) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Subgroup analyses indicated increasing trends for liver cancers (APC +3.2, 95% CI +2.5, +3.9) and HCC (APC +3.6, 95% CI +2.9, +4.4) in the region of North America/Europe/Australia, whereas corresponding trends were decreasing (APC -1.7, 95% CI -2.2, -1.1) and stable (APC -0.7, 95% CI -1.9, +0.5) in Asia, respectively.Conclusions: Incidence is increasing for adult liver cancers and HCC in Western countries, whereas trends are decreasing in the Asian region, although still remaining high. Our findings highlight the importance of viral hepatitis control and lifestyle interventions to reduce global liver cancer burden. Ongoing surveillance is also vital to detect early shifts in incidence trends.

The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983–2015, and projections to 2035

Abstract: Objectives: To describe changes in childhood cancer incidence in Australia, 1983–2015, and to estimate projected incidence to 2035. Design, setting: Population‐based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data for the 20 547 children under 15 years of age diagnosed with cancer in Australia between 1983 and 2015. Main outcome measures: Incidence rate changes during 1983–2015 were assessed by joinpoint regression, with rates age‐standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population. Incidence projections to 2035 were estimated by age‐period‐cohort modelling. Results: The overall age‐standardised incidence rate of childhood cancer increased by 34% between 1983 and 2015, increasing by 1.2% (95% CI, +0.5% to +1.9%) per annum between 2005 and 2015. During 2011–2015, the mean annual number of children diagnosed with cancer in Australia was 770, an incidence rate of 174 cases (95% CI, 169–180 cases) per million children per year. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (annual percentage change [APC], +2.3%; 95% CI, +0.8% to +3.8%), Burkitt lymphoma (APC, +1.6%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +2.8%), osteosarcoma (APC, +1.1%; 95%, +0.0% to +2.3%), intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumours (APC, +0.9%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +1.5%), and lymphoid leukaemia (APC, +0.5%; 95% CI, +0.2% to +0.8%) increased significantly across the period 1983–2015. The incidence rate of childhood melanoma fell sharply between 1996 and 2015 (APC, –7.7%; 95% CI, –10% to –4.8%). The overall annual cancer incidence rate is conservatively projected to rise to about 186 cases (95% CI, 175–197 cases) per million children by 2035 (1060 cases per year). Conclusions: The incidence rates of several childhood cancer types steadily increased during 1983–2015. Although the reasons for these rises are largely unknown, our findings provide a foundation for health service planning for meeting the needs of children who will be diagnosed with cancer until 2035.

Obesity Is Associated with BRAFV600E-Mutated Thyroid Cancer.

Abstract: Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased in many parts of the world since the 1980s, as has the prevalence of obesity. Evidence suggests that people with greater body size have higher thy...

Clinicopathological factors associated with death from thin (≤ 1·00 mm) melanoma

Abstract: Background Thin cutaneous melanomas (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) are increasing worldwide, causing around a quarter of all melanoma deaths in the U.S.A. and Australia. Identification of predictive factors for potentially fatal thin melanomas could allow better use of resources for follow-up. Objectives To identify the clinicopathological factors associated with fatal thin melanomas. Methods This large, nested case-case study extracted data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry, Australia. Our cohort consisted of Queensland residents aged 0-89 years who were diagnosed with a single, locally invasive thin melanoma (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) between 1995 and 2014. Fatal cases (eligible patients who died from melanoma) were individually matched to three nonfatal cases (eligible patients who were not known to have died from melanoma) according to sex, age, year of diagnosis and follow-up interval. Using conditional logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma-specific death, adjusting for all collected clinicopathological variables. Results In the cohort, 27 660 eligible patients were diagnosed with a single, thin melanoma. The final case-case series included 424 fatal cases and 1189 nonfatal cases. Fatal cases were sixfold as likely to arise on the scalp as on the back [OR 6 center dot 39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2 center dot 57-15 center dot 92] and six times as likely to be of thickness 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm as of < 0 center dot 30 mm (OR 6 center dot 00, 95% CI 3 center dot 55-10 center dot 17). Conclusions Scalp location is a strong prognostic factor of death from thin melanoma. Further, this study provides support that melanomas with a thickness of 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm are the more hazardous thin lesions. Patients with these tumour characteristics require specific attention during follow-up. What's already known about this topic?Thin invasive melanomas (<= 1 center dot 00 mm) contribute a substantial proportion of melanoma fatalities, owing to the high volume of disease. There is a need to find prognostic factors that will better identify fatal thin melanomas at the time of diagnosis. What does this study add?In this large population-based study, fatal thin tumours were sixfold as likely to be located on the scalp as on the back. Thin melanomas of 0 center dot 80-1 center dot 00 mm thickness were six times as likely to be associated with death as tumours < 0 center dot 30 mm. Scalp location and increasing thickness are strong predictive factors of fatal thin melanomas, indicating that patients with these tumour characteristics require close follow-up.

Second primary cancers in people who had cancer as children: an Australian Childhood Cancer Registry population‐based study

Abstract: Objective To investigate the incidence of second primary cancers in people diagnosed with cancer during childhood. Design, setting Retrospective, population-based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data. Participants People alive at least two months after being diagnosed before the age of 15 years with a primary cancer, 1983-2013, followed until 31 December 2015 (2-33 years' follow-up). Main outcome measures Risks of second primary cancer compared with the general population, expressed as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs). Results Among 18 230 people diagnosed with cancer during childhood, 388 (2%) were later diagnosed with second primary cancers; the estimated 30-year cumulative incidence of second cancers was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.8-5.0%). The risk of a new primary cancer was five times as high as for the general population (SIR, 5.13; 95% CI, 4.65-5.67). Relative risk of a second primary cancer was greatest for people who had childhood rhabdomyosarcoma (SIR, 19.9; 95% CI, 14.4-27.6). Relative risk was particularly high for children who had undergone both chemotherapy and radiotherapy (SIR, 9.80; 95% CI, 8.35-11.5). Relative risk peaked during the 5 years following the first diagnosis (2 to less than 5 years: SIR, 10.3; 95% CI, 8.20-13.0), but was still significant at 20-33 years (SIR, 2.58; 95% CI, 2.02-3.30). The most frequent second primary cancers were thyroid carcinomas (65 of 388, 17%) and acute myeloid leukaemias (57, 15%). Conclusions Survivors of childhood cancer remain at increased risk of a second primary cancer well into adulthood. As the late effects of cancer treatment probably contribute to this risk, treatments need to be refined and their toxicity reduced, without reducing their benefit for survival.

Long-term deaths from melanoma according to tumor thickness at diagnosis

Abstract: There is little long-term follow-up information about how the number of melanoma deaths and case fatality vary over time according to the measured thickness of melanoma at diagnosis. This population-based longitudinal cohort study examines patterns and trends in case fatality among 44,531 people in Queensland (Australia) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision [ICD-O-3], C44, Morphology 872-879) between 1987 and 2011, including 11,883 diagnosed between 1987 and 1996, with up to 20 years follow-up (to December 2016). The 20-year case fatality increased by thickness, with the percentage of melanoma deaths within 20 years of diagnosis being up to 4.8% for melanomas with measured thickness <0.80 mm, 10.6% for tumors 0.8 to <1.0 mm and generally more than 30% for melanomas measuring 3 mm and more. For melanomas <1.0 mm, most deaths occurred between 5 and 20 years after diagnosis, whereas for thicker melanomas the reverse was true with most deaths occurring within the first 5 years. Five-year case fatality decreased over successive calendar time periods for melanomas <1.0 mm, but not for melanomas ≥1.0 mm. These findings demonstrate that the time course for fatal melanomas varies markedly according to tumor thickness at diagnosis. Improved understanding of the patient factors and characteristics of melanomas, in addition to tumor thickness, which increase the likelihood of progression, is needed to guide clinical diagnosis, communication with patients and ongoing surveillance pathways of patients with potentially fatal lesions.

Breast Cancer Incidence and Survival Among Young Females in Queensland, Australia

Abstract: Purpose: Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed among adolescent and young adult (AYA) females worldwide, but epidemiological patterns unique to this group are often obscured when results are combined with older patients. This study investigates breast cancer incidence and survival among AYA females, including differences by broad stage at diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted using de-identified data for females in Queensland, Australia, aged 15-39 diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer between 1997 and 2014 with follow-up to December 31, 2016. Incidence rate trends were examined with Joinpoint analysis. Cause-specific survival was calculated for key characteristics, and 5-year adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from a multivariable flexible parametric model. Results: The study cohort comprised 2337 patients, of whom two-thirds (n = 1565, 67%) were diagnosed with advanced disease (tumor diameter >20 mm, lymph node involvement or presence of distant metastases at diagnosis). Incidence rates of localized tumors decreased by 1.9% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] -3.5% to -0.4%) over the study period, whereas the trend for advanced breast cancers remained stable. Five-year cause-specific survival increased from 85% to 92% for 2011-2014 compared to 1997-2001 (adjusted HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.29-0.65). Patients who were Indigenous from disadvantaged areas or diagnosed with advanced stage experienced significantly worse survival. Conclusion: The high proportion of younger females diagnosed with advanced breast cancer should be the focus of future campaigns to improve awareness and earlier detection. While survival has increased over time, further work is required to ensure that this progress is experienced equitably by all patients.

Geographical Disparities in Screening and Cancer-Related Health Behaviour

Abstract: This study aimed to identify whether cancer-related health behaviours including participation in cancer screening vary by geographic location in Australia. Data were obtained from the 2014–2015 Australian National Health Survey, a computer-assisted telephone interview that measured a range of health-related issues in a sample of randomly selected households. Chi-square tests and adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression models were computed to assess the association between residential location and cancer-related health behaviours including cancer screening participation, alcohol consumption, smoking, exercise, and fruit and vegetable intake, controlling for age, socio-economic status (SES), education, and place of birth. The findings show insufficient exercise, risky alcohol intake, meeting vegetable intake guidelines, and participation in cervical screening are more likely for those living in inner regional areas and in outer regional/remote areas compared with those living in major cities. Daily smoking and participation in prostate cancer screening were significantly higher for those living in outer regional/remote areas. While participation in cancer screening in Australia does not appear to be negatively impacted by regional or remote living, lifestyle behaviours associated with cancer incidence and mortality are poorer in regional and remote areas. Population-based interventions targeting health behaviour change may be an appropriate target for reducing geographical disparities in cancer outcomes.

Temporal Trends in Population-Level Cure of Cancer: The Australian Context

Abstract: Background: With the improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment, more patients with cancer are surviving for longer periods than before. This study aims to quantify the proportion cured and median survival time for those who are not cured for major cancers in Australia. Methods: Australian population-based cohort of 2,164,172 cases, ages 15 to 89 years, whose first cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2014 was one of 22 leading cancers, were followed up to December 2014. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate the proportion cured and median survival time for those uncured by age, sex, and spread of disease, and temporal trends in these measures. Results: Cure estimates could be generated for 19 of the 22 cancer types. The unadjusted proportion cured ranged from 5.0% for pancreatic cancer to 90.0% for melanoma. Median survival time for those uncured ranged from 0.35 years for pancreatic cancer to 6.05 years for prostate cancer. Cancers were divided into four groups according to their proportion cured in the 1980s and the degree of improvement over 28 years. Esophageal, stomach, pancreatic, liver, gallbladder, lung, and brain cancer had lower proportion cured and smaller improvements over time. Conclusions: For cancers with poor survival in which little has changed over time either in prolonging life or achieving statistical cure, efforts should be focused on reducing the prevalence of known risk factors and earlier detection, thereby enabling more effective treatment. Impact: Cure models provide unique insights into whether survival improvements are due to prolonging life or through curing the disease.

Pancreaticoduodenectomy in a low-resection volume region: a population-level study examining the impact of hospital-volume on surgical quality and longer-term survival.

Abstract: Background: An association between higher hospital-volume and better “quality of surgery” and long-term survival has not been reported following pancreatic cancer surgery in low resection-volume regions such as in Australia. Using a population-level study, we compare “quality of surgery” and two-year survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy between Australian hospitals grouped by resection-volume. Methods: Data on all patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for adenocarcinoma in the Australian state of Queensland, between 2001 and 2015, were obtained from the Queensland Oncology Repository. Hospitals were grouped into high (≥6 resections annually) and low (<6) volume centres. Following adjustment for case-mix, “quality-of-treatment” indicators were compared between hospital groups using multivariate logistic regression and Poisson regression analysis; and two-year cancer-specific and overall survival were compared using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Compared with high-volume centres, low-volume centres had worse two-year cancer-specific survival (Adjusted HR = 1.31; 95% CI:1.03–1.68), higher 30-day mortality (Adjusted IRR = 3.81; 95% CI: 1.36–10.62) and fewer patients received “high-quality surgery” (Adjusted OR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.33–0.90). Differences in 30-day mortality, or “quality-of-treatment” indicators did not entirely explain the observed survival difference between hospital-volume groups. Conclusion: In an Australian environment, a “high” hospital-volume was significantly associated with better quality surgery and two-year survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis: joint modelling of multiple cancer types using summary statistics.

Abstract: Cancer atlases often provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality or survival across small areas of a region or country. A recent example of a cancer atlas is the Australian cancer atlas (ACA), that provides interactive maps to visualise spatially smoothed estimates of cancer incidence and survival for 20 different cancer types over 2148 small areas across Australia. The present study proposes a multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis model, which can model multiple cancers jointly using summary measures without requiring access to the unit record data. This new approach is illustrated by modelling the publicly available spatially smoothed standardised incidence ratios for multiple cancers in the ACA divided into three groups: common, rare/less common and smoking-related. The multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis models are fitted to each group in order to explore any possible association between the cancers in three remoteness regions: major cities, regional and remote areas across Australia. The correlation between the pairs of cancers included in each multivariate model for a group was examined by computing the posterior correlation matrix for each cancer group in each region. The posterior correlation matrices in different remoteness regions were compared using Jennrich’s test of equality of correlation matrices (Jennrich in J Am Stat Assoc. 1970;65(330):904–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1970.10481133 ). Substantive correlation was observed among some cancer types. There was evidence that the magnitude of this correlation varied according to remoteness of a region. For example, there has been significant negative correlation between prostate and lung cancer in major cities, but zero correlation found in regional and remote areas for the same pair of cancer types. High risk areas for specific combinations of cancer types were identified and visualised from the proposed model. Publicly available spatially smoothed disease estimates can be used to explore additional research questions by modelling multiple cancer types jointly. These proposed multivariate meta-analysis models could be useful when unit record data are unavailable because of privacy and confidentiality requirements.

Global trends in incidence rates of childhood liver cancers: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

Abstract: Background Childhood liver cancers are relatively rare, hence inferences on incidence trends over time are limited by lack of precision in most studies.Objective To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of published contemporary trends on childhood liver cancer incidence rates worldwide.Data sources PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science.Study selection and data extraction English-language peer-reviewed articles published from 1 January 2008 to 1 December 2019 that presented quantitative estimates of incidence trends for childhood liver cancer and diagnostic subgroups. Review was conducted per PRISMA guidelines. Two authors independently extracted data and critically assessed studies.Synthesis Random effects meta-analysis models were used to estimate pooled incidence trends by diagnostic subgroups. Heterogeneity was measured using the Q and I-2 statistics and publication bias evaluated using Egger's test.Results Eighteen studies were included, all based on population-based cancer registries. Trends were reported on average for 18 years. Overall pooled estimates of the annual percentage change (APC) were 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5, 2.3) for childhood liver cancers, 2.8 (95% CI 1.8, 3.8) for hepatoblastoma and -3.0 (95% CI -11.0, 4.9) for hepatocellular carcinoma. Sub-group analysis by region indicated increasing trends for childhood liver cancers in North America/Europe/Australia (APC 1.7, 95% CI 0.7, 2.8) whereas corresponding trends were stable in Asia (APC 1.4, 95%CI -0.3, 2.7). Publication bias was not detected for any of these analyses. The I-2 statistic indicated that the heterogeneity among included studies was low for combined liver cancers, moderate for hepatoblastoma and high for hepatocellular carcinoma.Conclusions Incidence is increasing for childhood liver cancers and the most commonly diagnosed subgroup hepatoblastoma. Lack of knowledge of the etiology of childhood liver cancers limited the ability to understand the reasons for observed incidence trends. This review highlighted the need for ongoing monitoring of incidence trends and etiological studies.

Factors associated with being diagnosed with high severity of breast cancer: a population-based study in Queensland, Australia

Abstract: This study explores factors that are associated with the severity of breast cancer (BC) at diagnosis. Interviews were conducted among women (n = 3326) aged 20–79 diagnosed with BC between 2011 and 2013 in Queensland, Australia. High-severity cancers were defined as either Stage II–IV, Grade 3, or having negative hormone receptors at diagnosis. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of high severity BC for variables relating to screening, lifestyle, reproductive habits, family history, socioeconomic status, and area disadvantage. Symptom-detected women had greater odds (OR 3.38, 2.86–4.00) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than screen-detected women. Women who did not have regular mammograms had greater odds (OR 1.78, 1.40–2.28) of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who had mammograms biennially. This trend was significant in both screen-detected and symptom-detected women. Screen-detected women who were non-smokers (OR 1.77, 1.16–2.71), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.42–2.84), or employed (OR 1.46, 1.15–1.85) had greater odds of being diagnosed with high-severity cancer than those who were current smokers, premenopausal, or unemployed. Symptom-detected women being overweight (OR 1.67, 1.31–2.14), postmenopausal (OR 2.01, 1.43–2.82), had hormone replacement therapy (HRT) 10 years. Screen-detected women and women who had mammograms biennially had lower odds of being diagnosed with high-severity breast cancer, which highlighted the benefit of regular breast cancer screening. Women in subgroups who are more likely to have more severe cancers should be particularly encouraged to participate in regular mammography screening.

Augmenting disease maps: a Bayesian meta-analysis approach.

Abstract: Analysis of spatial patterns of disease is a significant field of research. However, access to unit-level disease data can be difficult for privacy and other reasons. As a consequence, estimates of interest are often published at the small area level as disease maps. This motivates the development of methods for analysis of these ecological estimates directly. Such analyses can widen the scope of research by drawing more insights from published disease maps or atlases. The present study proposes a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis model that analyses the point and interval estimates from an online atlas. The proposed model is illustrated by modelling the published cancer incidence estimates available as part of the online Australian Cancer Atlas (ACA). The proposed model aims to reveal patterns of cancer incidence for the 20 cancers included in ACA in major cities, regional and remote areas. The model results are validated using the observed areal data created from unit-level data on cancer incidence in each of 2148 small areas. It is found that the meta-analysis models can generate similar patterns of cancer incidence based on urban/rural status of small areas compared with those already known or revealed by the analysis of observed data. The proposed approach can be generalized to other online disease maps and atlases.

Impact of hospital resection volume and service capability on post‐operative mortality following gastrectomy

Abstract: Improved post-operative mortality following gastrectomy for cancer in hospitals with higher resection volumes has not been reported in Australia. Using a population-based study in Queensland, we aimed to compare post-operative mortality following gastrectomy between high- and low-volume hospitals stratified by their service capability. All patients undergoing gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma in Queensland between 2001 and 2015 were obtained from the Queensland Oncology Repository. Hospital service capability was defined using the 2015 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare hospital peer groupings. Hospitals were grouped into 'high-volume (≥5 gastrectomies annually), high service capability' (HVHS); 'low-volume ( LVLS hospitals have higher adjusted 30-day (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-5.35) and 90-day (IRR 1.95, 95% CI 1.23-3.09) mortality rates compared with HVHS hospitals. There is no significant difference in adjusted 30-day (IRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.48-2.79) and 90-day (IRR 1.12, 95% CI 0.59-2.13) mortality rates comparing low-volume, high service capability hospitals with HVHS hospitals. The type of gastrectomy performed did not significantly influence differences in mortality compared between hospital groups. In the Australian environment, post-operative mortality following gastric cancer surgery may be optimized by centralizing gastrectomy away from hospitals characterized by LVLS.

Survival in patients with multiple primary melanomas: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Background The literature surrounding survival of patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) yields variable and opposing findings, constrained by statistical challenges. Objectives To critically examine the available literature regarding survival of patients with MPM compared with a single primary melanoma and detail statistical methods used. Methods Electronic searches were performed of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with cross-checking of references, for the period January 1956 to June 2019. Studies published in English examining survival in patients with multiple melanomas were included. Case studies and small case series were excluded. Results There were 14 studies eligible for inclusion. Conclusions on survival varied markedly depending on the statistical method used. Four studies that accounted for survival bias by partitioning the survival time were included in the quantitative review, with 3 of these reporting a survival disadvantage for MPM, whereas the fourth showed no difference in survival. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.39 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.81) but with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 96.8%, Phet Limitations Studies showed significant heterogeneity in methodology. Conclusion When data were analyzed with robust statistical methods, patients with MPM had a survival disadvantage compared with patients with a single primary melanoma.

Quantifying the Number of Cancer Deaths Avoided Due to Improvements in Cancer Survival Since the 1980s in the Australian Population, 1985–2014

Abstract: Background:This study quantifies the number of potentially `avoided9 cancer deaths due to differences in 10-year relative survival between three time-periods, reflecting temporal improvements in cancer diagnostic and/or treatment practices in Australia. Methods:National population-based cohort of 2,307,565 Australians aged 15-89 years, diagnosed with a primary invasive cancer from 1985-2014 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2015. Excess mortality rates and crude probabilities of cancer deaths were estimated using flexible parametric relative survival models. Crude probabilities were then used to calculate 9avoided cancer deaths9 (reduced number of cancer deaths within ten years of diagnosis due to survival changes since 1985-1994) for all cancers and 13 leading cancer types. Results:For each cancer type, excess mortality (in the cancer cohort versus the expected population mortality) was significantly lower for more recently diagnosed persons. For all cancers combined, the number of 9avoided cancer deaths9 (versus 1985-1994) was 4,877 (1995-2004) and 11,385 (2005-2014) among males. Prostate (1995-2004: 2,144; 2005-2014: 5,099) and female breast cancer (1,127 and 2,048) had the highest number of such deaths whereas <400 were avoided for pancreatic or lung cancers across each period. Conclusions:Screening and early detection likely contributed to the high number of 9avoided cancer deaths9 for prostate and female breast cancer, whereas early detection remains difficult for lung and pancreatic cancers, highlighting the need for improved preventive and screening measures. Impact:Absolute measures such as 9avoided cancer deaths can provide a more tangible estimate of the improvements in cancer survival than standard net survival measures.

Cancer prevention: When knowledge of cancer prevention is not enough.

Abstract: It has long been recognized that knowledge of cancer can influence an individual’s lifestyle and health behaviors, and it is hoped that policy makers and medical professionals will use cancer knowledge as a tool in the fight against cancer. However, it is important not only for levels of cancer prevention knowledge to be increased in the community but also for key barriers to subsequent behavioral changes to be identified and removed if the massive cancer burden in China is to be addressed.

A Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Models for Cancer Incidence at a Small Area Level: Theory and Performance

Abstract: The increase in Bayesian models available for disease mapping at a small area level can pose challenges to the researcher: which one to use? Models may assume a smooth spatial surface (termed global smoothing), or allow for discontinuities between areas (termed local spatial smoothing). A range of global and local Bayesian spatial models suitable for disease mapping over small areas are examined, including the foundational and still most popular (global) Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model through to more recent proposals such as the (local) Leroux scale mixture model. Models are applied to simulated data designed to represent the diagnosed cases of (1) a rare and (2) a common cancer using small-area geographical units in Australia. Key comparative criteria considered are convergence, plausibility of estimates, model goodness-of-fit and computational time. These simulations highlighted the dramatic impact of model choice on posterior estimates. The BYM, Leroux and some local smoothing models performed well in the sparse simulated dataset, while centroid-based smoothing models such as geostatistical or P-spline models were less effective, suggesting they are unlikely to succeed unless areas are of similar shape and size. Comparing results from several different models is recommended, especially when analysing very sparse data.

Geographical patterns in melanoma incidence across Australia: can thickness differentials reveal the key drivers?

Abstract: Cancer Council Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Institute for Resilient Regions, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia; The University of Queensland Diamantina Institute, The University of Queensland, Dermatology Research Centre, Brisbane, Australia; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia Contributions: (I) Conception and design: P Baade, S Cramb; (II) Administrative support: S Cramb; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: None; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: P Baade, J Aitken; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: All authors; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors. Correspondence to: Susanna M. Cramb. Strategic Research Fellow, Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. Email: susanna.cramb@qut.edu.au.

Ongoing cancer burden after a diagnosis of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma.

Abstract: Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the second most commonly diagnosed type of skin cancer after basal cell carcinoma.1 Cumulative exposure to ultraviolet radiation has long been established as the strongest risk factor for SCC.2 Family history of any skin cancer also has an independent role in the development of SCC, associated with a fourfold higher risk3 after adjusting for other factors (including self‐reported sun exposure).