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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The extent of our reliance on animal pollination for world crop production for human food has not previously been evaluated and the previous estimates for countries or continents have seldom used primary data. In this review, we expand the previous estimates using novel primary data from 200 countries and found that fruit, vegetable or seed production from 87 of the leading global food crops is dependent upon animal pollination, while 28 crops do not rely upon animal pollination. However, global production volumes give a contrasting perspective, since 60% of global production comes from crops that do not depend on animal pollination, 35% from crops that depend on pollinators, and 5% are unevaluated. Using all crops traded on the world market and setting aside crops that are solely passively self-pollinated, wind-pollinated or parthenocarpic, we then evaluated the level of dependence on animal-mediated pollination for crops that are directly consumed by humans. We found that pollinators are essential for 13 crops, production is highly pollinator dependent for 30, moderately for 27, slightly for 21, unimportant for 7, and is of unknown significance for the remaining 9. We further evaluated whether local and landscape-wide management for natural pollination services could help to sustain crop diversity and production. Case studies for nine crops on four continents revealed that agricultural intensification jeopardizes wild bee communities and their stabilizing effect on pollination services at the landscape scale.

/pdf/importance-of-pollinators-in-changing-landscapes-for-world-2j8o9ygr29.pdf

Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops

Pollinators are a key component of global biodiversity, providing vital ecosystem services to crops and wild plants. There is clear evidence of recent declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in the plants that rely upon them. Here we describe the nature and extent of reported declines, and review the potential drivers of pollinator loss, including habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, climate change and the interactions between them. Pollinator declines can result in loss of pollination services which have important negative ecological and economic impacts that could significantly affect the maintenance of wild plant diversity, wider ecosystem stability, crop production, food security and human welfare.

/pdf/global-pollinator-declines-trends-impacts-and-drivers-5gfi4zur4k.pdf

Global pollinator declines: trends, impacts and drivers.

We live amid a global wave of anthropogenically driven biodiversity loss: species and population extirpations and, critically, declines in local species abundance. Particularly, human impacts on animal biodiversity are an under-recognized form of global environmental change. Among terrestrial vertebrates, 322 species have become extinct since 1500, and populations of the remaining species show 25% average decline in abundance. Invertebrate patterns are equally dire: 67% of monitored populations show 45% mean abundance decline. Such animal declines will cascade onto ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Much remains unknown about this “Anthropocene defaunation”; these knowledge gaps hinder our capacity to predict and limit defaunation impacts. Clearly, however, defaunation is both a pervasive component of the planet’s sixth mass extinction and also a major driver of global ecological change.

/pdf/defaunation-in-the-anthropocene-46k054u5cx.pdf

Defaunation in the Anthropocene

Bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honey bee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators, but such interactions are not addressed by current regulatory procedures and studying these interactions experimentally poses a major challenge. In the meantime, taking steps to reduce stress on bees would seem prudent; incorporating flower-rich habitat into farmland, reducing pesticide use through adopting more sustainable farming methods, and enforcing effective quarantine measures on bee movements are all practical measures that should be adopted. Effective monitoring of wild pollinator populations is urgently needed to inform management strategies into the future.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2015/02/25/science.1255957.full.pdf

Bee declines driven by combined stress from parasites, pesticides, and lack of flowers

Despite widespread concern about declines in pollination services, little is known about the patterns of change in most pollinator assemblages. By studying bee and hoverfly assemblages in Britain and the Netherlands, we found evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in both countries; however, divergent trends were observed in hoverflies. Depending on the assemblage and location, pollinator declines were most frequent in habitat and flower specialists, in univoltine species, and/or in nonmigrants. In conjunction with this evidence, outcrossing plant species that are reliant on the declining pollinators have themselves declined relative to other plant species. Taken together, these findings strongly suggest a causal connection between local extinctions of functionally linked plant and pollinator species.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/313/5785/351.full.pdf

Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands

Many factors, including climate, resource availability, and habitat diversity, have been proposed as determinants of global diversity, but the links among them have rarely been studied. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we investigated direct and indirect effects of climate variables, host-plant richness, and habitat diversity on butterfly species richness across Britain, at 20-km grid resolution. These factors were all important determinants of butterfly diversity, but their relative contributions differed between habitat generalists and specialists, and whether the effects were direct or indirect. Climate variables had strong effects on habitat generalists, whereas host-plant richness and habitat diversity contributed relatively more for habitat specialists. Considering total effects (direct and indirect together), climate variables had the strongest link to butterfly species richness for all groups of species. The results suggest that different mechanistic hypotheses to explain species richness may be more appropriate for habitat generalists and specialists, with generalists hypothesized to show direct physiological limitations and specialists additionally being constrained by trophic interactions (climate affecting host-plant richness).

Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity

Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out of reach, given the species' dispersal and migration rates or if all future suitable locations are only marginally suitable and the species is unlikely to build viable populations in competition with other species. Using bioclimatic models of 17 representative European woody species, we expand on current ways of risk assessment and suggest additional measures based on (a) the distance between presently occupied areas and areas predicted to be climatically suitable in the future and (b) the degree of change in climatic suitability in presently occupied and unoccupied locations. Species of boreal and temperate deciduous forests are predicted to face higher risk from loss of climatically suitable area than species from warmer and drier parts of Europe by 2095 using both the moderate B1 and the severe A1FI emission scenario. However, the average distance from currently occupied locations to areas predicted suitable in the future is generally shorter for boreal species than for southern species. Areas currently occupied will become more suitable for boreal and temperate species than for Mediterranean species whereas new suitable areas outside a species' current range are expected to show greater increases in suitability for Mediterranean species than for boreal and temperate species. Such additional risk measures can be easily derived and should give a more comprehensive picture of the risk species are likely to face under climate change.

Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past Location Europe Methods A 10' x 10' resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931-60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios) Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931-60 (pre-warming) conditions Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they arc now For any location in Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 237% (B1 scenario) and 497% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI) These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with pre-warming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments

Ralf Ohlemüller

Papers

Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands

Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity

Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change

Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates 1931–2100